Board Game Arena

OK, Catan is bugged, I played Catan with 2 other players and constantly rolled 7, out of first 12 rolls, it rolled 7, 6 times in a row. I won't support game or site that gives massive advantage to players through bugged game or mechanics. No if you coded this game properly, algorithm couldn't roll 7 four times in the row and further 4 times out of 15 rolls. That is not suppose to happen, I of course quit the game cause one of the players who benefited from what I consider to be fraud or cheating. I don't care for losing 10 rep points w/e, you as a site should maintain honesty and legitimacy for all players, what I witnessed made me angry and livid. Of course, I will never support this site in any manner, cause of what I witnessed with this game.

mic101 wrote: ↑17 October 2022, 00:08 OK, Catan is bugged, I played Catan with 2 other players and constantly rolled 7, out of first 12 rolls, it rolled 7, 6 times in a row. I won't support game or site that gives massive advantage to players through bugged game or mechanics. No if you coded this game properly, algorithm couldn't roll 7 four times in the row and further 4 times out of 15 rolls. That is not suppose to happen, I of course quit the game cause one of the players who benefited from what I consider to be fraud or cheating. I don't care for losing 10 rep points w/e, you as a site should maintain honesty and legitimacy for all players, what I witnessed made me angry and livid. Of course, I will never support this site in any manner, cause of what I witnessed with this game.

Here's the link to the game OP is referencing: https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=309124104

The OP says, "out of first 12 rolls, it rolled 7, 6 times in a row" but that is incorrect. The first 12 throws were:

9, 5, 3, 7, 8, 7, 7, 7, 6, 7, 6, 10

after that, two more 10's were thrown and then OP quit (ruining the game for the other players).

So there were five 7's out of fourteen (not six out of twelve), and the longest streak was three consecutive 7's (not six).

and you think this is normal ?????
Game is a mess, I am not going to support platform that enables unfair gameplay. This is not normal, in real universe the chance of 7 rolling 6 times in 14 must be trillion to one.

mic101 wrote: ↑17 October 2022, 13:06This is not normal, in real universe the chance of 7 rolling 6 times in 14 must be trillion to one.

No. If you throw a pair of dice 14 times, the odds are about 50 to 1 that you'll see at least six 7's.

But as I said before, you did not see six 7's in that game; there were only five 7's.

If it happen every game then it should be wrong but it happen now to you. It is just random luck/bad luck.

mic101 wrote: ↑17 October 2022, 13:06This is not normal, in real universe the chance of 7 rolling 6 times in 14 must be trillion to one.

Breaking news: Humans (and I assume you're one of them) are really bad at evaluating probabilities (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem). Don't trust your gut, take the time to do the math and properly calculate the probability. If you don't know how to do it, ask someone who knows.

Jellby wrote: ↑17 October 2022, 15:08

mic101 wrote: ↑17 October 2022, 13:06This is not normal, in real universe the chance of 7 rolling 6 times in 14 must be trillion to one.

Breaking news: Humans (and I assume you're one of them) are really bad at evaluating probabilities (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem). Don't trust your gut, take the time to do the math and properly calculate the probability. If you don't know how to do it, ask someone who knows.

Great link. Stats and probability. Takes me back...

Somewhere in the bug/Devs area is a request to enable live histogram of dice rolls during the game (pop up on demand) showing qty (not %) of each number rolled. As the game progresses you tend (not always) to see the bell curve start to appear. Obviously it depends on the number generator.

There is also a request for the (simple) dice card stack option to be added as a game setting option to help ensure a better distribution.

Feel free to vote for these requests in the bug report area

mic101 wrote: ↑17 October 2022, 13:06 and you think this is normal ?????
Game is a mess, I am not going to support platform that enables unfair gameplay. This is not normal, in real universe the chance of 7 rolling 6 times in 14 must be trillion to one.

Let me have some fun.
So the suit was:
"9, 5, 3, 7, 8, 7, 7, 7, 6, 7, 6, 10, 10, 10, 7"
And your claim was about series of 7s and number of 7s.

Let's ask my friend Bernouilli: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

6 sevens in 15 rolls. The probability to roll those are 2.7%. More than 1 chance out of 37.
But we can do the same claim for every number between 2 & 11, so I can 'multiply that probability per 11'.
Done properly, that give 26%. So what you are sharing should happen more than one game out of four
You did 10 games on this site, it's weird you only share it now, that should have happen to you 2 or 3 times already in average
Yeah rolling 7s are pretty likely.


Now for the series of 7s. It has a probability of 1/6^3, so 1/216.
You have 13 start of series of three 7s possible. So I can 'multiply properly' that probability per 13. That give slightly less than 6% chance.
But again, you can do the same claim for every number between 2&12, so I can 'multiply properly' that probability per 11.
That now give 48.5%.
So a serie of similar number like that (or a serie less likely than what you got) should happen a little less than one game out of 2

So... Yeah your perception of randomness is really bad. But don't worry, most people have a bad perception of it. Just think twice before claiming things which seem weird. Especially when you impact other's players game and do some aggressive claim on a public forum.
Or/And just play games with less randomness.

Luck (good or bad) is part of the game, nothing to say about that. There are many games with less randomness for players who don’t like it.

But your perception of mathematics isn't that good (Romain), I’m afraid. You can’t just multiply by 11 (or 13). For example, if I do the same Bernoulli formula for 4 sevens (or more) in 15 rolls, the answer is about 23.15%. But “multiplying per 11” gives 254,67 % !?!?! But I’m not THAT sure this will happen…

Same problem for the series of three 7s. If you consider more than 15 rolls, there is for sure a number of rolls (N) that will gives a probability higher than 100 % (!?!?!) when you "multiply per N-2 (starts) then per 11"…

Mani7 wrote: ↑20 October 2022, 13:00 Luck (good or bad) is part of the game, nothing to say about that. There are many games with less randomness for players who don’t like it.

But your perception of mathematics isn't that good (Romain), I’m afraid. You can’t just multiply by 11 (or 13). For example, if I do the same Bernoulli formula for 4 sevens (or more) in 15 rolls, the answer is about 23.15%. But “multiplying per 11” gives 254,67 % !?!?! But I’m not THAT sure this will happen…

Same problem for the series of three 7s. If you consider more than 15 rolls, there is for sure a number of rolls (N) that will gives a probability higher than 100 % (!?!?!) when you "multiply per N-2 (starts) then per 11"…

You didn't understood what I did.
You can see on my previous post that 2.7% 'multiplied properly' by 11 gave 26%, while the wrong answer would be 29.7%. It's a 3.7% difference!

I put a difference on my post between 'multiply' and 'multiply properly'. (feel free to give me another expression to use on my next posts)
If I try to do 'multiply properly' 23.15% per 11, I will do this calculation: 1-(1-0.2315)^11, which give 94.48%.

I don't think it's exact (but maybe it is), but it should be enough close I think.