In the end, it's only luck

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GinerG
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Joined: 23 April 2017, 05:41

Re: In the end, it's only luck

Post by GinerG »

SluggerBaloney wrote: 19 December 2022, 21:53
if your opponent is lucky on the draw, you loose. I don't see the point of competing on this game anymore.
Of course. Wingspan is one of the most variance heavy games on this site. It's up there with Can't Stop.

The cards you start with are random
The cards in the tray are random
The cards you draw from the deck are random
The round goals are random
The food you get in the feeder is random
The bonus cards you get are random
All of the "hunt" scoring cards are random
Who goes first is random

Wingspan has a very low threshold of skill, and then it's just luck of the draw. It's a silly game to try and get competitive in. Skills wise it's not even at a Sushi Go level. Just have fun playing it, don't pay attention to your ELO/ranking since that's in no way an indicator of how well you play the game.
I think you've dramatically undersold the opportunities for skill and strategy here.

Starting cards are random but figuring out how to start a winning engine with a wide variety of starting cards is a skill.
The cards in the tray and those you draw are random, but knowing which ones to pick up and use when is a skill. A raven coming up in round 1 is very different from a raven coming up in round 4, just as one simple example, but there are a lot more nuanced examples.
Figuring out not just which cards to take but which habitats to play them in and in which order is a skill.
Round goals are random but figuring out how to make them work with your objective cards and weighing how hard to work for them is a skill.
Food in the feeder is a huge luck factor, I'll give you that. But knowing that and working toward engines that rely less on the feeder, or building engines that will work for you regardless of what's in the feeder, is a skill.
Bonus cards, like round goals, are random but again knowing how to make them work together and deciding how hard to fight for them is not.
Hunt cards are random so deciding when it's worth bothering with those cards takes skill.
Who goes first is random but realizing that going last is often best takes at least some knowledge of the game. Making decisions based on your turn order takes some skill.
Hopefully some day we'll get the expansions here because they add even more complexities.

If the game was all luck and there was no way to get better at it, there wouldn't be entire discord channels where people discuss different strategies, and all kinds of YouTube videos demonstrating how to build different types of engines. Somehow I doubt you'll find the same kinds of communities and discussions for Can't Stop out there.
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SluggerBaloney
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Re: In the end, it's only luck

Post by SluggerBaloney »

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sorryimlikethis
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Re: In the end, it's only luck

Post by sorryimlikethis »

SluggerBaloney wrote: 09 January 2023, 16:46 LOL. There are plenty of forums where people talk about "strategy" in all luck based games. Wingspan is like most board games, there is a base level of competency in learning how to play the game and after you achieve that, which is very simple, the only thing that determines a winner between two players who have that basic level of competency is LUCK. I guess you could call it "skill" if someone who knows how to play beats someone who doesn't know how to play, but to me thats not skill
Are you saying you have, or haven't, reached that base level of competency after 350 games played?
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robinzig
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Re: In the end, it's only luck

Post by robinzig »

SluggerBaloney wrote: 09 January 2023, 16:46 that's not skill, that's just knowing how to play the game optimally.
Strange, most people would say that "knowing how to play the game optimally" equates to skill.

It's a pointless debate really. All games have a balance of skill and luck, most being somewhere between eg Roulette (pure luck) and Chess (pure skill). I guess you're arguing Wingspan is nearer the "luck" end of the spectrum than others are arguing - and that's a valid debate to have (I haven't played Wingspan enough, or "seriously" enough, to really have an opinion). But it's rather strange to specifically mention an aspect that is most definitely skill (regardless of how important or not a part of the game it is or how hard it is) and claim "that's not skill".
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Jellby
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Re: In the end, it's only luck

Post by Jellby »

Well, you could say that "knowing" what to do is one thing, and having the "skill" to do it properly is a different thing. The former can be learnt or studied, the latter is usually practiced or trained. In sports or other activities (e.g. playing musical instruments) I can see those as separate. In playing board games online I doubt the "skill" factor as described above plays any role (except maybe in speed games such as Spot It).
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SluggerBaloney
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Re: In the end, it's only luck

Post by SluggerBaloney »

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sorryimlikethis
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Re: In the end, it's only luck

Post by sorryimlikethis »

Do you think you're understating how "very simple" it is to play Wingspan competently? Seeing as there are people at the top with 80+% win rates? And you are stuck on 60% complaining about luck?
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robinzig
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Re: In the end, it's only luck

Post by robinzig »

SluggerBaloney wrote: 10 January 2023, 02:24
Strange, most people would say that "knowing how to play the game optimally" equates to skill.
Knowledge is not skill. I "know" how to weld. I'm not skilled at it because I have only done it once.
Sure (and contrary to what an earlier poster said, even in games there can be a gap between "knowing" something and being able to apply it, even if it's an easier-to-surmount one than in physical activities). But in context I sort of assumed that when you were referring to "knowing how to play the game optimally" that you actually mean "being able to apply that knowledge" as well. After all, if you have the knowledge and don't know how to apply it then you'll do less well - because you'll be lacking exactly that skill that is needed to do well.

I feel your argument is kind of self-contradictory at this point: saying "this is just knowledge, it's not skill" but then admitting that it's possible to have the first without the second. I would argue that's a pretty good definition of the word "skill" in general - an ability, earned either through practice or innate ability (or a mix of both of course), to be able to do things that others can't.
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SluggerBaloney
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Re: In the end, it's only luck

Post by SluggerBaloney »

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sorryimlikethis
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Re: In the end, it's only luck

Post by sorryimlikethis »

SluggerBaloney wrote: 10 January 2023, 22:10
sorryimlikethis wrote: 10 January 2023, 04:55 Do you think you're understating how "very simple" it is to play Wingspan competently? Seeing as there are people at the top with 80+% win rates? And you are stuck on 60% complaining about luck?
Again, when you try and insult me vs discussing my point, you just prove me right. You have no argument so you just get nasty. Sad.
People are replying to you, you're choosing not to have a discussion.
The classic "oh I'm so offended" while ignoring everything else people are saying.

It's "very simple" to see the amount of luck vs skill in a game: look at the leaderboards.
Castles of Burgundy: 830 ELO
Wingspan: 600 ELO
Catan: 430 ELO
Yahtzee: 400 ELO

Wingspan is somewhere in the middle, leaning towards skill rather than luck. So again I ask: do you think you're understating how "very simple" it is to play Wingspan competently?

Fear not, I have some tips that can improve your gameplay.
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=334779265
-Generally you want to keep at least one bird from your starting hand
-When you go to Wetlands you usually want to draw at least one card (you figured this out on the 7th attempt)
-Top players can often win from unlucky starts by using their skill instead of conceding after the opening draw and complaining about luck
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