Dices probability

[adrianbouvier]

Hei, perhaps this is repost, but i have been playing many times to King of tokio, both digitally and on board, and i am very surpriced by the "lucky" some people can get in some part of the game. For example just right now, a person had 1 heart, and "luckily" he got 6 hearts in 2 dices draw. The chances that happen are 1/7776 chances, even more, the chances that happen to that person that just need to heal up is almost incalculable. Happened also, a person needs 4 points to win the game, got 6 +3. I have 2 theories here, 1 people have cheats ( dont come here with cheats does not exist) games like CS GO, whree people invest million of dolars has cheats in high level competency. My second theory, is the dice algorithm is not as ramdom as should be, think about this, 6 hearts chances are 1 in 7776 trhrown, I am not speaking about feelings here, i am doing maths.

[Jellby]

The chances that happen are 1/7776 chances, even more, the chances that happen to that person that just need to heal up is almost incalculable.

How? The chances of whatever happening to any person are the same. Also, the chances of something "unusual" happening in any game are incredibly high.

Happened also, a person needs 4 points to win the game, got 6 +3.

So? How many times does someone need 4 points to win and... doesn't get them?

[Ez0ah]

I am not speaking about feelings here, i am doing maths.

Yeah, you are speaking about feelings here. You are biaised to see the unlikely successes and forget about the majority of average results.

Also, 20 games is a statistically small sample compared to the thousands of games every day. So you could have had very lucky events in your games and it still wouldn’t prove anything. Accusing players of cheating based on a few random games is just pretty funny.

[adrianbouvier]

I dont understand, anyone here went at least to school ? The chances of everyone is the same, but the chance of an event is 1 time in 7776 chances, i just said i saw recurrently this amazing kind of lucky, and i think is something extrange, i have played this game on board, more times than you brush your thoht in your life, and never saw this amazingly lucky in some games. Please, comment with mathematical or another kind of firm data, not with your opinions. I am giving here the number of chances, and plus the chences are even more unlikely, because i didnt count in every draw you can also reduce the number of dices because you got already some 6, that is even advance mathematics, and i am not sure could be comprendhed here, even more after seen these comments.

[Romain672]

Are you sure of what you are claiming? In your two last games, I find that part on the logs:
"dice [dice1][dice1][dice2][dice3][diceHeart][diceEnergy]
Move 119 :14:44:23
TeamBlueHeart keeps [diceHeart] and rerolls dice [dice2][dice2][diceHeart][diceHeart][diceHeart]
Move 120 :14:44:31
TeamBlueHeart keeps [diceHeart][diceHeart][diceHeart][diceHeart] and rerolls dice [diceHeart][diceHeart]
Move 121 :14:44:34
TeamBlueHeart resolves dice [diceHeart][diceHeart][diceHeart][diceHeart][diceHeart][diceHeart]
TeamBlueHeart gains 1 cultist with 4 or more [diceHeart]
Move 122 :14:44:40
TeamBlueHeart gains 5 [Heart]
TeamBlueHeart enters Tokyo Bay and gains 1 [Star]
Move 123 :14:44:50
carnico"

He would have get the 6 hearts you are talking about in three rolls: firstly with one heart, then with three extra, then with the two last.

Btw, if I did not make any mistake, the chance to get 6 identical side you want with three rolls is 0.56%, 1/179.

There was 33 full turns in your last game of this game.
You did 23 games since you are in thuis website.

1-(178/179)^(23*33)=98.6%

Which mean that in average 98,6 person out of 100 will get the event you just get once during their games (ie before your turn choosing a side, then rolling 6 times their side in three trys).

Even my calculations seem right, there was a lot of shortcut taken, but as you can see, 98,6% is massive.

You can then said that this was some specific moment that this events occured, or you got others examples (and high chance you got some), but the human is bad to perceive randomness. And if what I said earlier is true, you already got an example earlier with your claim which was false (since it was in 3 rolls and not 2).
If you want a 'fun' video about that subject in 13min, you can check that one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP-Ipsat90c .

[voriki]

If you want a 'fun' video about that subject in 13min, you can check that one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP-Ipsat90c .

They should just rename the channel Funberphile.

[Jellby]

The chances of everyone is the same, but the chance of an event is 1 time in 7776 chances, i just said i saw recurrently this amazing kind of lucky

1/7776 is the chance of rolling 6 dice on the same side (without pre-deciding which one) at once, without re-rolling. Once you start locking dice and re-rolling, the chances are much higher.

[adrianbouvier]

No, probabilities in independent events multiply themself. If you thow 2 dices, you have 36 dif situations, but just 1 is gonna be duble hearts, then if you got 1 heart, and want to throw a new one, you have 1/6 chances to get a heart, is 0,16 chances. So as must be mutiple both event is :

1/36 * 1/6 = 0,46% chances.

I dnt have tme to explain about probabilties, just wanted to know how good was the IA to ramdonly dices. I am not the first one think something is wrong about dice probabilties here. Either soemone can be cheating.

[Jellby]

The probability of getting 2 hearts by rolling 2 dice once is 1/36.
But the probability of getting 2 hearts by rolling 2 dice with three allowed rerolls is 1/36 (you got it the first roll) + all the probabilities of getting the two hearts by rerolling the non-heart dice.
Of course, if you always reroll the two dice no matter what, the probability of ending with 2 hearts is still 1/36.

There's no IA/AI, it's just a simple (pseudo)random number generator of the same kind used everywhere, probably even in your browser to generate "random" passwords.

[Romain672]

Probability to get exactly 2 hearts in first roll: 1/6*1/6=1/36
Probability to get exactly 1 heart in first roll: 1/6*5/6+5/6*1/6=10/36
Probability to get exactly 0 heart in first roll: 5/6*5/6=25/36
You can see: 1/36+10/36+25/36 add up to 36/36, so 1.

Then you roll a second time:
If you rolled 2 hearts in first roll, the probability to get 0 more heart in the second roll is 1/1, 100%. So we keep that 1/36
If you rolled 1 heart in first roll, the probability to get 1 more heart in the second roll is 1/6, so 10/36*1/6=10/216
If you rolled 0 heart in first roll, the probability to get 2 more hearts in the second roll is 1/6*1/6, so 1/36. 1/36*25/36=25/1296
Then we add up all three, and get: 36/1296+60/1296+25/1296=121/1296.

Which give 9.34% in your simple situation.


I gave you why you are not the first one to think that probabilities is wrong in my first post, and the probability to get 6 hearts in 3 rolls (I will not detail though, since it's pretty complicated, but you can just apply the same thing that what I did here).