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Probability of results

Posted: 02 April 2023, 13:41
by Baluku
Hi,

Anyone has any insights regarding the coding for the Tapestry adaptation to BGA? I am continually frustrated by a few die results that certainly do not seem to conform to standard normal distribution, assuming the die rolls are supposed to be random. I have not kept a table of results, but the following results happen enough that they do not seem to be random:

1. First die roll on Science track when moving onto Astronomy. I am fairly certain that the most frequent result is Mathematics. Sometimes I get another result, but I have been surprised and then frustrated at how often Mathematics seems to be the result.

2. Conquest of one of the four starting tiles. At this point, I almost NEVER use conquest on one of these tiles, unless I am ready to take victory points, because I am fairly certain that the result of the other die will be the Hex. As there is no benefit on any of the starting tiles, conquering one of the starting tiles at the beginning of the game gives 1 point.

Again, this doesn't happen every time. Sometimes, I get a die result with a resource, which I appreciate. However, I am fairly certain that the most frequent result is the hex.

There are a few other results of supposedly random "die" rolls that I can't recall right now. Those are the most glaring examples.

Has anyone else noticed this? Are there other aspects of this game on BGA that are supposed be random but seem like they are not due to the coding?

Re: Probability of results

Posted: 03 April 2023, 11:38
by Mattzord
No

Re: Probability of results

Posted: 28 December 2023, 10:37
by Lodizodi
You have explained one of the most common thinking mistakes. Human mind highlights negative encounters, so you only "remember" the times you got negative impact. If you want to be sure, you should make a statistical analysis.

I have not experienced the same issue.