Board Game Arena

Played tons of Memoir , been ranked as high as number 2 and plenty of wins against some excellent players. So this is not about sore losing.

The dice here are horrific. If the person reading this is the one who is responsible for this , you need to get better at your job .
virtually every game is the same.

How can I go 1-15 on a 50/50 chance ? 1-12 on a 1/3 chance ? These are not anamoalies these types of rolls are regular occurence in my games. My opponents consistently out perfrom my dice .

Im not here on a free account , I paid the money for premium . So if I paid and it stinks (which it does) Im within my rights to complain.

It literally takes the fun out of playing when every single game the same thing happens with the dice.

Please Id be more than happy to pay another 30 just to have the dice function properly.

Please provide all statistical analysis of all of your games, and all of your opponent's games.

1-15 on a 50/50 chance has a (1/2)^14 chance of happening, so it would be very odd if it didn't happen every 16,384 games. There are more games than that played daily, so this should be a daily occurrence.
1-12 on a 1/3 chance has a (2/3)^11 chance of happening, so should happen about once every 86 times. Not even rare enough to really discuss.

Now, for fun research, look up articles on confirmational bias, and read the Can't Stop and Backgammon forums about how bad humans are at recognizing true randomness. Chances are you have conveniently forgotten the times the dice were in your favor.

But, again, until actual substantial statistical analysis is provided instead of "I don't think this is right," most people who understand the site are going to dismiss your claim.


-----
OK, the actual chances may be slightly different, as I've forgotten some of my statistics. I didn't include factors of when the 1 shows up in the run. But these numbers should be within a factor of 2 of the highest improbability. I'll let someone correct me for that correction.

I think any request that the OP provide statistical analysis should come later, not now.

What should come now is, Biasco giving us links to Biasco's games which had things much
closer to the ​ "1-15 on a 50/50 chance" ​ extremeness than the ​ "1-12 on a 1/3 chance" ​ extremeness,
since Biasco said the two examples Biasco provided are not anomalies.



If your numbers correspond to successes-failures, rather than successes-totaltries, then:


For 13 with 1/3 chance, outcomes that are at least as extreme as 1-12 have total probability between 1/14 and 1/13.
Biasco has played 326 games of ​ ​ ​ Memoir '44 ​ , ​ ​ ​ and if each had 13 tries with 1/3 chance, then the probability
that none of them would have something at least as extreme as 1-12 is less than ​ ​ ​ 1 / (5*(10^10)) ​ .
(i.e., this having not come up is what would've been extremely surprising.)

For 16 with 50/50 chance, outcomes have least as extreme as 1-15 have total probability between 1/1928 and 1/1927.
Biasco has played 326 games of ​ ​ ​ Memoir '44 ​ , ​ ​ ​ and if each had 16 tries with 50/50 chance then the
probability that at least one of them would have something at least as extreme as 1-15 is between 1/7 and 1/6.

(You say those two are not anomalies: ​ Give us links to your games with
things much closer to the ​ "1-15 on a 50/50 chance" ​ extremeness.)



https://paste.ee/p/Webht has a paste of me running ​ Python 3 ​ code for the above.

Please when you can just watch the games? I dont know how to link . But if you watch them or ask the people who play me regulary . Im going to try to keep stats onit

Go to ​ https://boardgamearena.com/gamestats?player=94013577 .

Click the table number, or ​ Memoir '44 ​ just above that.

Click ​ ​ ​ "View game replay" ​ .

Copy the link to the resulting page.

Gulchen wrote: ↑30 April 2023, 07:39

Thanks for providing better math. I was in a hurry.

If you think you can predict the result of the dice, use it to your advantage

Regarding the "I pay, so I can complain" statement, paying gives you a right to complain about the things you pay for. You don't pay for fair dice, you pay for: https://boardgamearena.com/premium Fair dice are a core feature available for both paying and free users, so you can complain even if you don't pay, but most likely you're wrong.

Statistical averages have no bearing on the outcome of any single event. 15 samples is also laughably small as a comparison against an average.

Flipping a coin 15 times and only getting heads once may be UNLIKELY, given the mapped statistical average, but each flip has no bearing on the one before it or the one after it so this WILL happen some portion of the time.

Sorry about the bad luck, that’s part of playing M44 tho.

This topic shows up once a week and they all end the same . I’ll contribute this time. Almost every time I get over 7 cards in Catan a 7 is rolled. Other players can have 20 cards in hand and the 7s go on vacation. But as soon as Chief gets 8 cards (wham) a 7 . BGA do something about this.

Biasco95 wrote: ↑29 April 2023, 21:27 So this is not about sore losing.

Unfortunately this statement is wrong