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Terrible Backgammon Dice Algorithm
Posted: 28 July 2023, 22:02
by boardteacher
Please consider getting a better dice program for backgammon. The game has become almost unplayable. When there are 10+ doubles rolled in a game it is just ridiculous. There is NEVER that many doubles in real life. And it seems the doubles just love to roll out once all of your players are in the home base. An opponent just rolled a double 5, double 4, then double 6 to seal the game. Unheard of in real play. It has made the game totally luck dependent.
Re: Terrible Backgammon Dice Algorithm
Posted: 28 July 2023, 22:15
by Tisaac
boardteacher wrote: ↑28 July 2023, 22:02
Please consider getting a better dice program for backgammon. The game has become almost unplayable. When there are 10+ doubles rolled in a game it is just ridiculous. There is NEVER that many doubles in real life. And it seems the doubles just love to roll out once all of your players are in the home base. An opponent just rolled a double 5, double 4, then double 6 to seal the game. Unheard of in real play. It has made the game totally luck dependent.
Lol, that's a good one.
Re: Terrible Backgammon Dice Algorithm
Posted: 28 July 2023, 22:43
by Meeplelowda
boardteacher wrote: ↑28 July 2023, 22:02
When there are 10+ doubles rolled in a game it is just ridiculous.
There is NEVER that many doubles in real life.
Code: Select all
Monte Carlo 2001 Final
Game 2
Jorgen Granstedt : 2 Thomas Holm : 0
1) 45: 13/8 24/20 33: 8/5* 8/5 6/3 6/3
2) 53: Doubles => 2
3) Takes 62: 24/18 13/11
4) 33: 31: 13/10 11/10
5) 63: 44: 13/9 10/6 6/2 6/2
6) 64: 25/21 21/15* 54: 25/20 24/20
7) 55: 13/8 13/8 8/3 8/3 22: 18/16 8/6 3/1* 3/1
8) 11: 64: 16/10* 13/9
9) 41: 25/21 51: 9/4* 9/8
10) 22: 51: 8/3 4/3
11) 44: 25/21 25/21 6/2 6/2 51: 10/5 6/5
12) 64: 8/2 8/4 51: 13/8 8/7
13) 53: 21/16 21/18* 63:
14) 32: 16/13 6/4 52: 25/20 5/3
15) 44: 18/14 13/9 13/9 13/9 53: 20/15 15/12
16) 43: 14/10 10/7 22: 20/18* 20/18 12/10 10/8
17) 64: 25/21 21/15 61: 8/2 5/4
18) 63: 15/9 9/6 64: 18/12 18/14
19) 66: 9/3 9/3 9/3 8/2 65: 12/6 14/9
20) 53: 8/3 3/0 65: 9/4 6/0
21) 63: 6/0 3/0 65: 6/0 5/0
22) 52: 6/1 2/0 31: 3/0 1/0
23) 53: 6/1 3/0 41: 4/0 1/0
24) 63: 4/0 3/0 51: 5/0 2/1
25) Doubles => 4 Takes
26) 51: 4/0 1/0 53: 6/1 3/0
27) 33: 3/0 3/0 2/0 2/0
Wins 4 points
12 doubles rolled in an over-the-board tournament.
Code: Select all
Game 6
Jorgen Granstedt : 8 Thomas Holm : 2
1) 62: 24/18 13/11
2) 21: 13/11 8/7* 66:
3) 54: 6/1* 24/20 62: 25/23
4) 42: 20/16 16/14* 21: 25/23 25/24*
5) 65: 25/20 13/7 51: 13/8 6/5*
6) 55: 25/20* 20/15 15/10 14/9 63: 25/22 22/16*
7) 44: 25/21 13/9* 8/4 8/4 32: 25/22 6/4*
8) Doubles => 2 Takes
9) 42: 25/21* 11/9 51: 25/20 23/22
10) 64: 21/15 6/2* 43: 25/22 24/20
11) 11: 15/14 14/13 9/8 9/8 64: 22/16 13/9
12) 62: 24/18 18/16* 54: 25/20 13/9*
13) 53: 25/20 13/10 63: 20/14 16/13
14) 51: 20/15 15/14 33: 14/11* 11/8 8/5 8/5
15) 43: 25/21 21/18 41: 13/9 8/7*
16) 33: 25/22 13/10 13/10 10/7 52: 13/8 7/5
17) 65: 10/4 7/2 62: 22/16 22/20
18) 53: 6/1 4/1 41: 8/4 5/4
19) 62: 10/4 10/8 66: 9/3* 9/3 8/2 8/2
20) 61: 25/24 24/18 52: 6/1 3/1
21) 63: 18/12 12/9* 33: 25/22 6/3 6/3 5/2
22) 63: 8/2 9/6 21: 22/20 2/1
23) 53: 6/1 4/1 64: 20/14 20/16
24) 63: 7/1 7/4 31: 14/11 16/15
25) 62: 8/2 8/6 61: 15/9 9/8
26) 43: 4/0 6/3 22: 20/18 18/16 16/14 8/6
27) 61: 6/0 3/2 51: 11/6 20/19*
28) 51: 25/20* 2/1 65: 25/20 19/13
29) 42: 20/16 16/14 44: 14/10 13/9 10/6 9/5
30) 65: 14/8 8/3 31: 20/17 6/5
31) 65: 4/0 4/0 61: 17/11 6/5
32) 65: 3/0 2/0 21: 6/4 11/10
33) 42: 2/0 2/0 44: 10/6 4/0 4/0 4/0
34) 52: 2/0 1/0 66: 6/0 5/0 5/0 5/0
35) 64: 1/0 1/0 52: 3/0 2/0
36) 11: 1/0 1/0 1/0
Wins 2 points
13 doubles rolled later in the same tournament.
And this wasn't cherry picked. This was literally the first tournament archive I looked at.
Re: Terrible Backgammon Dice Algorithm
Posted: 28 July 2023, 23:02
by Meeplelowda
Tisaac wrote: ↑28 July 2023, 22:15
Lol, that's a good one.
I violated my self-ban from threads like this, mainly because I wanted to see how you responded. But this was just too easy to refute.
Re: Terrible Backgammon Dice Algorithm
Posted: 28 July 2023, 23:16
by Tisaac
Meeplelowda wrote: ↑28 July 2023, 23:02
Tisaac wrote: ↑28 July 2023, 22:15
Lol, that's a good one.
I violated my self-ban from threads like this, mainly because I wanted to see how you responded. But this was just too easy to refute.
My answer depends on my mood. This one was just too big for being serious.
Re: Terrible Backgammon Dice Algorithm
Posted: 29 July 2023, 06:26
by Gulchen
You apparently played some games in the meantime, so the answer was different closer to when you posted, but:
As of this post, your most recent Backgammon game had 50 rolls. With that many rolls,
Code: Select all
Python 3.8.0 (default, Oct 28 2019, 16:14:01)
[GCC 8.3.0] on linux
Type "help", "copyright", "credits" or "license" for more information.
>>> from math import comb
>>> probofdoubles = [comb(50,doubles)*(5**(50-doubles)) for doubles in range(1+50)]
>>> 8*probofdoubles[10] < 6**50 < 9*probofdoubles[10]
True
>>> 3*sum(probofdoubles[10:]) < 6**50 < 4*sum(probofdoubles[10:])
True
>>>
the probability of
exactly 10 doubles is between 1/8 and 1/9
and
the probability of
at least 10 doubles is between 1/3 and 1/4
.
(I'm using a code-block this time instead of a paste.ee link, since due to I-forget-who's
comment in some other thread, I know know that BGA offers code blocks.)
Re: Terrible Backgammon Dice Algorithm
Posted: 29 July 2023, 08:28
by ufm
Most of these conspiracy guys just don't want to get the short end of the stick.
Sound logic cannot persuade people with such an attitude.
boardteacher wrote: ↑28 July 2023, 22:02
It has made the game totally luck dependent.
Single game backgammon is luck-dependent. What did you expect?
Re: Terrible Backgammon Dice Algorithm
Posted: 02 August 2023, 14:57
by Kayvon
Here's an analysis of
half a million random numbers generated by BGA:
https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewto ... and#p59122