Board Game Arena

Let me preface this by saying that I'm bad at this game. I love playing it, but lose a lot (I think I'm at about 14% win ratio in Arena). Recently I've been trying out new strategies, watching replays, taking notes, and generally trying to learn from my mistakes.

In my latest loss, I wanted to understand how the opponent did so well. I'm not looking for comments on my moves (I know where I went wrong, and I also tried out some things that didn't pan out) in this game. In this one, the opponent makes a couple moves that I don't understand how they could predict, or they're incredibly lucky. The series of moves starts at 191, here: https://boardgamearena.com/archive/repl ... ;&goto=191#. (Sidenote that from the initial 8-card draw, up to this point, they have gotten extremely fortunate with the cards drawn from the deck.)

At move 191, the opponent selects build at 5 power. They build a Kiosk and 3-enclosure - these both make clear sense to me - but then end by building a 1-enclosure. The placement wasn't on a bonus space, and I thought at best, it set them up to maybe get the +$5 space on a future build? They don't have 1-space animal in hand, and there's none on the board. Not terribly weird, but not necessarily a move I would make. But then on their next turn (move 205), they play the Animals action at 5 power - with only one card in hand that they'll be able to play (Jaguar, with the Hunter ability: draw 4, take 1). In the Hunter ability draw, they draw three(!) 1-enclosure animals - two of which they can afford, go towards the base conversation project they were already pursuing, and have the exact maximum number of appeal points they can take in order to play one of the sponsor cards they have in hand (Release of Patents).

Is this sheer luck? Could they have predicted this? Their play makes me think they knew they would have those cards as options. Any thoughts and advice are appreciated!

PS. The opponent maxes out conversation points at 41, with one of the wildest ending moves I've seen (2x multiplier on Animals at 5, with two animal abilities to move Assoc. to 5 and play it)

Rosh wrote: ↑27 October 2023, 16:44 They build a Kiosk and 3-enclosure - these both make clear sense to me - but then end by building a 1-enclosure. The placement wasn't on a bonus space, and I thought at best, it set them up to maybe get the +$5 space on a future build? They don't have 1-space animal in hand, and there's none on the board. ... Is this sheer luck? Could they have predicted this? Their play makes me think they knew they would have those cards as options.

16% of the cards in that deck are 1-size animals, so ignoring information on how many matching and non-matching cards have already gone we can estimate the probability of getting one or more in a 4-card draw as 50%. But even if they don't get one immediately, there's a good chance there'll be an opportunity to use the space at some future point; and if they're aiming to fill the board then it makes sense not to waste 1 power of their build, in which case the comparison needs to be between the benefit of having a 1-enclosure vs a pavilion.

pjt33 wrote: ↑27 October 2023, 19:00 16% of the cards in that deck are 1-size animals…

Omg doing probabilities… on that front I’ve already lost lol.

Sounds like that 1-enclosure move was just generally a good one, and they just got really lucky with the draw being perfect for the situation. GG.

Me, 0. Ark Nova, 2.

A certain amount of this game is definitely trusting your luck, but you want to err on the side of prudence. That is, if you only have one animal in hand, but a bunch of money and build on 5, go ahead and build a variety of different enclosures. Try to pick up a few cards with your build action if you have available card draw map placement bonuses. Filling the map is always a worthwhile objective and a good conservative strategy if your card draws, for the moment, aren’t giving you the animals you want.

I have often built a bunch of enclosures before I had animals to fill them, as I like filling my map. And I love to play animals with card draw abilities and use those abilities to find the animal I need for my empty enclosure. Hunter, scavenging, sprint, etc. So this is probably not that uncommon.

Rosh wrote: ↑27 October 2023, 16:44 Let me preface this by saying that I'm bad at this game.

It looks like you've won 21 out of 49 games? That doesn't sound too bad to me? (By the way, why does BGA calculate that as 50% and not 43% ?)

I know games in the alpha phase don’t count for the %. My stats are skewed by that. Same with any game played in training mode.

Also, perhaps abandoned games count for the total number of games, but not for the win rate.

Apart from training and abandoned games, the win rate depends on the number of opponents. A win against one opponent counts as 1, against 2 opponents, as 1.5, against 3 opponents as 2, etc. The idea is that if the winner was totally random, the win rate would average to 50%. (And yes, that means you can have win rates higher than 100%, I do.)

Judging by your win rate (50%) and other games in your profile, you pretty decent.
It's normally just about playing more and concentrating on improving - in the right way.

Look at your worst part of your game and improve it. Rinse and repeat. Most of the time, improving efficiency is the answer. Learn the maths, and do the maths. Get strategy tips from the experts: BGG \ youtube. There are a few youtube channels with Ark Nova strategy content.
Try this: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... mcY-IuWKqC

ThreeTrees wrote: ↑28 October 2023, 18:50 It looks like you've won 21 out of 49 games?

Pretty sure 90% of those wins are with family and friends lol

Thank you everyone for suggestions - I seriously appreciate the insight!