When I have a knight card and there's a robber on one of my hexes, it's good to play the knight _before_ rolling the dice, so if that number gets rolled, I get the resource.
However, if I already have 7 resource cards at the start of the turn, I often wait to play the knight and roll dice first, because if I play the knight first I'll get 8 resources and then if I roll a 7, I'll lose 4. If I wait and play the knight second, odds are higher that I'll a) not roll the number that the robber is on, so lose nothing, and then b) get an extra resource with the robber.
But what about the odds if the robber is currently on my 8 or 6? What if it's on an 8 or 6 where I have two settlements or a city? It seems like the best choice in this case may be to play the knight before rolling dice, but choose not to rob anyone, so I still have 7 and don't lose if I roll a 7. But then I lose the extra resource I could've gotten from the robber. Also, at least on BGA, you may be forced to place the robber on a space that doesn't block much for other players, because BGA's Catan doesn't let you choose not to steal if you can steal.
What do you think?
However, if I already have 7 resource cards at the start of the turn, I often wait to play the knight and roll dice first, because if I play the knight first I'll get 8 resources and then if I roll a 7, I'll lose 4. If I wait and play the knight second, odds are higher that I'll a) not roll the number that the robber is on, so lose nothing, and then b) get an extra resource with the robber.
But what about the odds if the robber is currently on my 8 or 6? What if it's on an 8 or 6 where I have two settlements or a city? It seems like the best choice in this case may be to play the knight before rolling dice, but choose not to rob anyone, so I still have 7 and don't lose if I roll a 7. But then I lose the extra resource I could've gotten from the robber. Also, at least on BGA, you may be forced to place the robber on a space that doesn't block much for other players, because BGA's Catan doesn't let you choose not to steal if you can steal.
What do you think?