Board Game Arena

Is anyone else noticing that often times reroll tokens produce the exact same results? About 90% of the time rerolls produce almost all the same numbers, sometimes on up to three dice at a time.

I had this happen a lot with my physical copy with dice, too. So I really think that's only a probability/bias thing. Make a list of your results from a few hundred rolls and we can see if there is something off.

It happens to me a lot in-person as well. I think it's a case of perception bias. I notice it less now, but I rely much less on re-rolls than I used to.

For what it’s worth, (I think) the probabilities are:

Rerolling one die and getting the original value: 1-in-6
Number of outcomes while rolling one die = 6^1 = 6
Number of favorable outcomes = 1

Rerolling two dice and getting the original two values: 1-in-18
Number of outcomes while rolling two dice = 6^2 = 36
Number of favorable outcomes = 2

Rerolling three dice and get the original three values: 1-in-36
Number of outcomes while rolling three dice = 6^3 = 216
Number of favorable outcomes = 6

Rerolling three dice (of three different values) and having at least two of the original three values come up is: 1-in-9
Number of outcomes while rolling three dice = 6^3 = 216
Number of favorable outcomes = 24

Disclaimer: I am not a mathematician, nor do I play one on television.

Sparge42 wrote: ↑28 April 2024, 21:17 Rerolling two dice and getting the original two values: 1-in-18
Number of outcomes while rolling two dice = 6^2 = 36
Number of favorable outcomes = 2

Except if the original two values are identical, then the number of favorable outcomes is only 1. The need to consider special cases like these is what complicates the calculations.

I've played a lot of games now and initially thought that with the online version but it has balanced out and I did notice it would happen in the physical game a lot too.

It’s not just when refilling but when rolling the first time as well. Today I played a game where my dice rolled up 1,6,6,6 no less than three rounds. To cap off the final round rolled 2,4,4,4. It doesn’t feel too random at all.

This is a returning discussion.

Sky Team uses the default randomizer provided by the BGA Framework. This has been proven to be random and MUST be used by all games that have some kind of randomisation (f.e. dice rolls).

What you're experiencing is confirmation bias (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias)

jordijansen