Number improbability

[Solarman9]

admin can you delete please. I did not know people get confrontational over a game

[Strode]

Go through all games of Space Base, and the stats show 7s and higher come up rarely. I think this is because you can roll two dice, but treat them up separately (note that it shows some 1s coming up).

In short, there is not a 16.7% chance of 7 coming up.

[Solarman9]

Go through all games of Space Base, and the stats show 7s and higher come up rarely. I think this is because you can roll two dice, but treat them up separately (note that it shows some 1s coming up).

In short, there is not a 16.7% chance of 7 coming up.

Basic number probability of 2 dice says it's 16.667%. The game of craps is founded on it being a winner for the house after the point. But sure, you go with the broken algorithm of the game

[greenjacket124]

I can deal with numbers not rolling that are out of the ordinary. I do not mind losing to the improbable, I mind losing to the impossible. Yes i have played many games with zero 12s or zero 11s, especially short games. The last game of space base that I played on here, or will ever play on here, had 78 rolls with zero 7s. There is a 16.667 chance of rolling a 7 each roll. It is the highest chance of any sum. I am sure people will say I am complaining about losing or that it is not impossible, I could care less....it is less then .01% chance to happen. Not 1%, 1/100th of a percent. I like math games and i don't mind losing, I lose to a lot of the great players here and I only play arena. I do mind losing when the game gives me no chance. I'll just play my favorite game where numbers exist in reality.

You don't seem to understand how extremely small of a sample set 78 rolls is.

[Remkar]

Go through all games of Space Base, and the stats show 7s and higher come up rarely. I think this is because you can roll two dice, but treat them up separately (note that it shows some 1s coming up).

In short, there is not a 16.7% chance of 7 coming up.

Basic number probability of 2 dice says it's 16.667%. The game of craps is founded on it being a winner for the house after the point. But sure, you go with the broken algorithm of the game

I think you are misunderstanding what Strode is trying to say.

They aren't saying your 16.7% probability is wrong.
They're saying that you are reading the final result numbers incorrectly.

Those #s do not appear to be ROLLS, they appear to be CHOICES.
So, it looks like if somebody rolls a 3/4, and chooses 7, it will get logged as a 7.
If they can only use a 3, though, it gets logged as a 3.
Also, I'm guessing if someone rolls a number and modifies it with a cube ability, it will show up as the modified number and not the original roll.

So you can't use those numbers to determine what was rolled is all Strode was saying, I believe.

Also, it looks like your total roll # was incorrect. It looks like there were 45 turns, but I'm not sure if that counts any pre-rolling actions. Assuming it doesn't, the game had 45 rolls (possibly less).
Based on your # of games played (assuming all games had 45 rolls), you have over a 30% chance to experience a game with no natural 7s rolled. That isn't very unlikely.

[Solarman9]

Go through all games of Space Base, and the stats show 7s and higher come up rarely. I think this is because you can roll two dice, but treat them up separately (note that it shows some 1s coming up).

In short, there is not a 16.7% chance of 7 coming up.

Basic number probability of 2 dice says it's 16.667%. The game of craps is founded on it being a winner for the house after the point. But sure, you go with the broken algorithm of the game

I think you are misunderstanding what Strode is trying to say.

They aren't saying your 16.7% probability is wrong.
They're saying that you are reading the final result numbers incorrectly.

Those #s do not appear to be ROLLS, they appear to be CHOICES.
So, it looks like if somebody rolls a 3/4, and chooses 7, it will get logged as a 7.
If they can only use a 3, though, it gets logged as a 3.
Also, I'm guessing if someone rolls a number and modifies it with a cube ability, it will show up as the modified number and not the original roll.

So you can't use those numbers to determine what was rolled is all Strode was saying, I believe.

Also, it looks like your total roll # was incorrect. It looks like there were 45 turns, but I'm not sure if that counts any pre-rolling actions. Assuming it doesn't, the game had 45 rolls (possibly less).
Based on your # of games played (assuming all games had 45 rolls), you have over a 30% chance to experience a game with no natural 7s rolled. That isn't very unlikely.

I watched the replay again just to make sure, it says 89 moves but i thought it said 78. Regardless, I got the 7 with 2vp and extra card, which i would have always chosen to get extra card on the third round. It never rolled a 7. Probability wise it should have, but it did not. I activated it once with an arrow, but 7 never rolled. As a math oriented person I always look at what numbers rolled at the end of games. The worst anomaly outside of this was a game with over 80 rolls that had 4 roll only 5 times. The 2 games before the game I played the 8 rolled less then 5 times. I understand that. If it had rolled 0 times I would question it as it is also closer to the apex of the probability curve, but i know the algorithm is wonky on this game. I have had several games where i lost after getting over 40 and seen 11 roll twice to make me lose. My favorite game was where i needed an 8 to get enough vp to win and the other 3 people all rolled 8s on last turn and i rolled a 10. The odds of that are harder then the two 11s. I would write all of this off as to rng, but you've looked at how many games I have played, it's over 1000.

[Jellby]

I do not mind losing to the improbable, I mind losing to the impossible.

And what you describe, even if there are no mistakes or misunderstandings, is clearly not impossible. Rolling a 42 or a 7.5, that's impossible

[Phoxtrot]

Not rolling a 7 in 78 throws is slightly less than 1 chance in 1.5 millions but this is NOT what happened.

But as someone already said, the stats are very misleading.

There aren't 78 throws in that game, there are 45 turns (15 rounds of 3 players) and therefore 45 throws (unless there are some forced rolls or rerolls or whatnots because of special cards , I don't know how those are counted).

The chance of no '7' sum in 45 throws is 1 in 3657. Rare but it is bound to happen given the sheer number of games played.
(1 in 3657 is also somewhat misleading because you would probably also have found it weird if there are been no total of 6 or no total of 8 and some other cases and the combined probabilities or those unlikely cases is much higher than 1 in 3657)

The "die appearance" stats are hard to read and pretty useless
- I think that if someone rolls say XY stat will be increased by 1 for X, by 1 for Y and by 1 for X+1

Redo the game step by step and apply my algorithm above if you want to make sure.

[NinePointOh]

Not rolling a 7 in 78 throws is slightly less than 1 chance in 1.5 millions but this is NOT what happened.

But as someone already said, the stats are very misleading.

There aren't 78 throws in that game, there are 45 turns (15 rounds of 3 players) and therefore 45 throws (unless there are some forced rolls or rerolls or whatnots because of special cards , I don't know how those are counted).

The chance of no '7' sum in 45 throws is 1 in 3657. Rare but it is bound to happen given the sheer number of games played.
(1 in 3657 is also somewhat misleading because you would probably also have found it weird if there are been no total of 6 or no total of 8 and some other cases and the combined probabilities or those unlikely cases is much higher than 1 in 3657)

The "die appearance" stats are hard to read and pretty useless
- I think that if someone rolls say XY and 2 players uses X,Y the "die appearance" stat will be increased by 1 for X, by 2 for Y and by 1 for X+1

Redo the game step by step and apply my algorithm above if you want to make sure.

I'm not sure I agree with your interpretation of "dice appearances" (though I could be wrong, I've seen a lot of BGA stat calculations that make zero sense to me) but you're spot on here in that the distinction between "Moves" and "Throws" is vital.

BGA counts "Moves" at the top of the screen but lots of things count as Moves without the dice being rolled. Assigning players colors is a "Move." Choosing your starting cards is a "Move." Scrolling through the log of the game in question, tons of those 89 "Moves" are just a player activating a card.

There were not 80+ rolls. There were 80+ moves, of which only 45 included rolls. And those rolls are not purely random events, given the abilities of certain cards (set a die, re-roll one or both dice, etc).

[Phoxtrot]

Yeah, I read the die appearance stats wrong the first time, I thought I had corrected it but my first edit somehow didn't make it through.
It is correct now.

For info, there were apparently no effects allowing rerolls or setting a dice in that game.