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Faulty Random Die Algorithm

Posted: 17 June 2024, 00:30
by Rumbletough
Not sure if this has been observed, but too many times was an "x" rolled, then re-rolled with a feat

Re: Faulty Random Die Algorithm

Posted: 17 June 2024, 04:07
by Kayvon
For sure. Humans are great at observing patterns, even when none exist. To boot, we're particularly good at finding patterns in things that going against our interests.

Here's a false bug report from a week or so ago about feats rolling an X:
https://boardgamearena.com/bug?id=126723

And here's a false bug report from yesterday about too many Xs in general:
https://boardgamearena.com/bug?id=127481

And, most importantly, here's an analysis of half a million random numbers generated by BGA:
https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewto ... and#p59122

The dice are weighted exactly as expected. Sorry about your bad luck.

Re: Faulty Random Die Algorithm

Posted: 17 June 2024, 05:34
by Romain672
Want to add that if you are cursed and rolled the curse then your chance to roll 'x' (so 1 or 0) is 2/6, and not 1/6.

Re: Faulty Random Die Algorithm

Posted: 20 June 2024, 01:28
by Bread4Ducks
To further demonstrate how much people remember the bad rolls and forget about the good ones, you can look at the 2 games in the linked bug reports where there were supposedly too many X rerolls.

In the first example they rerolled 11 times and an X came up twice. In the second example they rerolled 15 times and an X came up 3 times. In both of those games the number of X's wasn't unusual at all yet both players were convinced they were getting too many X's.