Board Game Arena

Update: I apologize to any I accused of cheating, I don't think it's players, I DO believe the dice are fundamentally broken though.

I shared 2 games I thought were suspect (https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=597929278 and https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=600144650), but after looking at the stats, decided to play into the script (ie, play the numbers that are over represented) instead of logically playing (like in real life where 6 and 8 are priority) and found that I "magically" dominated the game, just like those I said were cheating. (sorry about that). Managed to lose a city every time I could and still got handed everything on 9, 4, and 11, still ran the board and way over shot the other players. That game is here: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=600175550

Why do I care if I "won" because that's not fair dice, it's a script, it's rigged (not by players...except they know the script), and it's not fun. I didn't play as I would have regularly played, I played into the expected script and it delivered like a champ.

My conclusion remains the same:
Please BGA, fix your dice or the dice script, or the dice seed(s), or their vulnerability or AI, or whatever it is. You can do better, fix your dice!
It is on one hand a minor annoyance to lose (who cares really I'm not trying to be the king of ELO), but it eliminates any fun or feeling fairplay or enjoyment in the game.

I agree

Ignoring the event dice

You had a game with 43 rolls distributed as follows

{1,4,5,2,4,6,1,10,6,3,1} (one time 2, 4 times 3, 5 times 4, etc...)

The less likely output is

8 which occurred only once

The probability for 8 to appear 0 or one time out of 43 rolls is 1.27% in itself not such a small number.

However for a given sequence you will always have number rolled above or below average.

Based on a simulation of 50Millions similar game (absolutely stable, results don't change if a subset of 10M is taken),
the probability to get a number with a probability below 1.27% is a bit larger than 10%.

In conclusion there will slightly more than one game each ten game with a sequence which is at least as weird as the one you encoutered.

I wouldn't call this an outstanding evidence against the dice

Update: I don't think players are straight rigging numbers, but if they know what script the game is running they are taking advantage of it.


Catan is not a dice game. It's a resource game and an attack game. Player behavior, not strict number distribution, discloses cheating and conversely fairplay. Whether or not a '3' for example rolls at a reasonable rate over the whole of the game means very little. When it rolls and what resource it produces means everything. Each number represents resources, from 0 benefit (no cards drawn on that roll), all the way up to something like 12 cards (being triple built on a double 3 with cities for example). And any given number can produce multiple resource types, or single resource types. Additionally, any given number has a relative benefit to the 3 or 4 players who may be on it, from none at all, to a lot. As a resource game (not a dice game), a single number rolled many times, or not at all, does not make or break the game, nor does it give adequate insight into cheating. Looking at the aggregate distribution of dice is wholly insufficient to detect cheating the dice in CATAN, maybe this would work in Yahtzee (which is a strict dice game), but not CATAN. So let me talk about player behavior.

Normal player behavior looks like:
Players are rational, they don't know what numbers will roll, so they seek to be on numbers that are both likely to roll AND produce resources they need to advance the game. As the game progresses, players build toward more numbers and more resource types. They also build to increase the marginal benefit from any one number (ie adding another settlement or city onto a number they are already on). With Cities and Knights there is a second/third layer of strategy geared toward building knights and gathering commodities (hence more fun, more ways to progress).
Bottom line: In EVERY normal game I've played, win or lose, I've witnessed rational/logical behavior from all players reflecting they do NOT know what number will roll.

"Cheating the Dice "Player behaviors look like:
Exclusivity - Player will build onto (or move with trick cards) number(s) they are exclusively on. They then roll these numbers often, giving them an exorbitant advantage. (ie build on '2' and '12', and get "super lucky") The focus here is making sure they are exclusively on a number. Using the game I link above a case study, the suspect player is exclusively on 4 and 10 (which together represent 56% of all rolls in the game).

Aqueduct abuse - Player will build a city on wood at the start of the game (any number) and roll that number frequently until they can claim the level 3 benefit, allowing them to pick whatever card they need on any roll from them on out. This is especially effective when other players share numbers they are on. Player can then roll numbers no one is on, or have very small benefit and claim whatever needed resource they want.
Moving the robber (with 7 roll) immediately off their tiles if blocked (since some cards and knights can move the robber onto them without a 7 roll).
Moving the robber (with 7 roll) onto opponents number that is also a number they need to roll. Example, they need a brick from a 5 roll, but rolling a 5 would be too beneficial to the other players, so block the other player's 5 and let 5s roll!
Denial of resources to other players - Especially early in the game, holding numbers away from other players so they don't get crucial resources in time can destroy competitive play. In cities and knights in particular, denying other players a roll of wheat/sheep/ore can prevent them from building a knight and cost them the loss of a city when the barbarians attack. This is very difficult to recover from.
Irrationally doubling up on exclusive numbers that are unlikely to roll - Nothing smells more suspicious than a player using that "swap 2 numbers" trick card to put themselves onto double 3 or double 11, when they aren't on the 9 or 5 or 4 or 10, all of which are rationally better numbers to take.
Inconsistent or slow time-to-roll at the start of a turn - Sometimes they don't care what rolls, so they roll immediately on their turn (they already have the resources needed for the next build), and sometimes they need a few seconds to figure out what number is the most beneficial to their progress and least beneficial to their opponents.
Others - I'd add more when I think of them

Bottom-line: In EVERY rigged game I've played, win or lose (usually lose, but if you know they are cheating you can reflective build and beat them at their own game sometimes), I've witnessed irrational/illogical behavior from players reflecting they DO know what number will roll.

Some Counter play options if you're up against a cheater:
- Play on the same numbers as them. This can prevent them from the marginal benefit they're after.
- Use the power of trick cards, take their resources, take their knights, do everything you can to make their advantage into yours. Especially if they get into the lead early, trick cards can be very helpful at attacking them.
- If they do have exclusive numbers, and you can get the 'swap numbers' card, swap their most beneficial number to something you are also on. Try not to worry about the specific number is, just that you wreck their exclusiveness.
- Call them out nicely "hey I'd rather not play with someone rigging the dice, do you mind?" Be civil if you can.
- Anyone else have tips to offer?

Thanks for listening to my TED Talk

Really, the rigged dice joke is old and no longer interesting to read.

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=597402677

I’ve reviewed one of the games I’ve played with them to check for dice rigging. If it wasn’t rigged, then I must say the player is insanely lucky to roll a 7 every time they got robbed. And also roll a convenient resource number to enable them to plow someone’s road or steal someone’s settle spot.

edit: huh i took all players, not only the one you was talking about.

darkNecessities18 wrote: ↑06 December 2024, 05:53 https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=597402677

I’ve reviewed one of the games I’ve played with them to check for dice rigging. If it wasn’t rigged, then I must say the player is insanely lucky to roll a 7 every time they got robbed. And also roll a convenient resource number to enable them to plow someone’s road or steal someone’s settle spot.

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 5 4 6 11 18 9 5 5 1 1
1/2291 to roll that amount of 7s or more.
But since you can do that reasonning for any number, and telling that any number is too much or too few rolled, I will multiply that probability by 22: 1/(1-(2290/2291)^22).
And I find 1/104.

Still unlikely for a game, but I don't know how much you was searching for to find that game.



edit:
So by only taking that player:
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0 2 1 2 3 5 5 1 2 0 0
I now find 1/3,77. Yes, those rolls for that player aren't weird at all
So for fun, if I multiply by 22, I got 1,0011467037. Which mean that more than 99% of the time, you will be able to show me one game where one number of roll too much or too few rolled will be more extreme than this game.

tylerjwarren wrote: ↑05 December 2024, 16:15 For those who are like "it's all random" you are welcome to review" CATAN Table #597929278
https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=597929278
Straight up dice rigging.

I even called him on it in the chat and he didn't deny it.

Please BGA, fix your dice or their hacker vulnerability or AI, or whatever it is. You can do better.
It is on one hand a minor annoyance to lose (who cares really I'm not trying to be the king of ELO), but it eliminates any fun or feeling fairplay or enjoyment in the game.

I guess my backup is to only play with friends (which maybe is a better way to go anyway).

In my opinion, you should try to learn the difference between correlation, causality and randomness. Otherwise you will be very susceptible for believing conspiracy theories. Here you are making up one yourself.

Please completely miss the possibility that players simply choose their numbers and then they may get lucky or not!

In the game you quote the winning player took very feasable starting locations. He was in 2nd position and took a good 6-9-10-spot as a first pick. As a 2nd pick he took the 4-4-11-spot with access to a 3:1-port. You were playing C&K and he thus got an ideal wood-wood-ore spot for his city (he already had clay,sheep,wheat via his initial settlement). The player took very resonable choices (probably the best he had available - what else better was available instead of this specific 4-4-11?) and just got lucky with the dice.

Next time if you conspire again, please at least analyse at least 10 games of the player you believe "can influence the dice". This way you would give your words some weight and not just sound like a sore loser.

so is there cheating or not? I have played in games that seemed that way as well.

Excior wrote: ↑06 December 2024, 17:22 so is there cheating or not? I have played in games that seemed that way as well.

In the game that OP has cited there is not the slightest evidence of cheating.