Board Game Arena

So, I know that an Age I Military victory is definitely possible in vanilla, but extremely unlikely given all the things that need to align, so I have two questions:

1. Has anyone actually seen this happen (if you can, I'd like it if someone could provide a replay)
2. Does someone know the math about the actual probabilities that would be needed for this to even be possible (without accounting for player decisions, just the things mechanically required for this to happen)? I'm curious to see that.

You need 9 steps to reach your enemy, in first era there are only 4 military cards. Even if you have resources for your wonders there are not 5 military points in all wonders.

null3 wrote: ↑01 January 2025, 23:15 You need 9 steps to reach your enemy, in first era there are only 4 military cards. Even if you have resources for your wonders there are not 5 military points in all wonders.

With the right wonder, you could get the +1 per military card. But I am not sure you could build everything by the end of Age I, even if both both players helped to achieve that)

Here's a constructed example I just created of both players cooperating to cause an Age I victory in base game: https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=609612323

I doubt anyone has taken the time to calculate the odds because it depends so significantly on the geometry of the card layout and it would take quite a while to exhaustively determine which layouts can and cannot be used.

Its possible. There needs to be a gulf in skill between the players though. got no replays but had one or two rl games where that happened.

you need the great library and at least 1 military wonder. and you need to succeed in the 60% drawing the strategy token.
What helps, and makes it not stupid to try, even on the same-ish player level (ignoring prestige/ambitions), is: being first player, having artemis temple AND getting yellow wood as first card.

some vauge napkin math ignoring a lot of things: 0.5 being first, 1/3 getting artemis, 6/23 yellow wood being in bottom row ... here it gets more complicated since you need better wonders than Great library and some military wonder to choose from, so the opponent doesnt snatch it, but at the minimum you need GL to choose from which makes it 7/11 - and in best case you need either marsoleum or no military card in the bottom row - lets say 17/22 {whoops, that is wrong. it should be 18/22*17/21*16/20*15/19*14/18= ~32,5%} .... : so just based on that its AT BEST 1/2*1/3*6/23*7/11*17/22 = ~2,1% so it is even worth a try to win first age in vanilla 7wd (but even made way more unlikelier if you start accounting for the ignored factors, like specifics on how the cards lay in the pyramid - how expensive its for the opponent to take some actions and hinder an unlikely loos in age 1 but making a loss in age 2 nearly unavoidable... combinations of wonders to choose from besides artemis, and GL...you also need either all 4 military cards in game or colosus in addition to one other military wonder..-- and on that thought its 19/23*18/22= ~67,6% that no more than one card is not in the game => even simplified its under 2% to be even worth a try (asuming winning in the end is still the clear goal, even if winning age 1 fails...) )

hpe that gives you some idea and was as fun for you as it was for me ^^