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Winning %

Posted: 24 April 2025, 10:19
by GifusGray
How is it possible that in the game where luck is involved (3/5) there are so many players, specially in the Arena-mode who has winning procentage over 75% or even higher?

-gifusgray-

Re: Winning %

Posted: 24 April 2025, 13:05
by Jellby
Hmm... If luck were 5/5, you'd expect winning rates to be 50%. If it were 0/5, you'd expect something close to 100%. So if with luck 3/5 you get 75%, it doesn't seem too strange to me :D

Re: Winning %

Posted: 24 April 2025, 13:21
by GifusGray
...and how about 94% with 57 games played? or 83% with 83 games played?

Re: Winning %

Posted: 24 April 2025, 14:34
by David314
What exactly do you expect the winning percentage to be?

It seems like for high-ranked Arena players with 1000+ games it's somewhere around 70-80%. I'm inclined to put the 94% over such a small number of games down to luck and/or weaker-than-normal opponents, though I'd be interested to be proven wrong here.

That said, I know there's plenty of ways to play poorly. I'll often finish a move, or get partway through a sequence of moves, and realize I lost out on a point, or a resource, or took an extra turn I didn't need to. It's hard to know how those lost turns or resources would snowball as the game goes on, but also about half my recent games ended within 5 points, meaning some of those mistakes could easily have affected the results of those games. This isn't even accounting for larger strategic mistakes that I'm sure I'm making but don't know the game well enough to analyze, or player interactions where maybe I could've blocked something important my opponent wanted but I don't know the game or what they want to do well enough to notice those opportunities.

I'm pretty sure Arena matchmaking just randomly pairs any two players in Arena, regardless of ELO. So if many games are close and most people are like me and routinely making large enough mistakes to throw those close games, I could easily see someone who doesn't make those mistakes having a higher win rate. Quick napkin math - if half of games are close enough that a better player avoiding my mistakes would win those, and the other half are truly just coinflips, that's a 75% win rate for a good player. And I would not be shocked if I'm actually making more than 5 points of suboptimal plays over a typical game.

Re: Winning %

Posted: 24 April 2025, 16:09
by FrankJones
Jellby wrote: 24 April 2025, 13:05 Hmm... If luck were 5/5, you'd expect winning rates to be 50%. If it were 0/5, you'd expect something close to 100%. So if with luck 3/5 you get 75%, it doesn't seem too strange to me :D
Exactly. Especially when, in a multi-player game, it is possible to get multiple wins in one game. On this site, a player can have a winning percentage over 100.

Re: Winning %

Posted: 24 April 2025, 16:34
by GifusGray
Was just wondering, nothing else. And because I’am on of the shittiest players in here obviously. At the moment my % is around 20. I’m getting good points but end up losing miserably. So this is just getting to be frustrating. Last of the 6 defeats has been down to bonus cards. And when I get decent bonuscard points, the opponent gets something like 16 from one card.
Maybe I should take some Rainman-courses.

Re: Winning %

Posted: 24 April 2025, 18:03
by FrankJones
GifusGray wrote: 24 April 2025, 16:34 Was just wondering, nothing else. And because I’am on of the shittiest players in here obviously. At the moment my % is around 20. I’m getting good points but end up losing miserably. So this is just getting to be frustrating. Last of the 6 defeats has been down to bonus cards. And when I get decent bonuscard points, the opponent gets something like 16 from one card.
Maybe I should take some Rainman-courses.
I find this game very annoying and difficult without at least the European Expansion. It's so difficult to get anything going early on with a bad starting hand. And there are so few ways to do anything with extra cards if you have to draw cards a few times and get bad ones.

Without the Eagles, the Chiffchaff, the Chaffinch, etc., and without the map enhancements of Oceania, I felt as though every game I won or lost basically came down to the tarting hands and luck of the draw.

I am good tactical player, so I was able to get to 300 Elo quickly, but it's still a frustrating slog much of the time.

Re: Winning %

Posted: 24 April 2025, 18:05
by FrankJones
GifusGray wrote: 24 April 2025, 16:34 Was just wondering, nothing else. And because I’am on of the shittiest players in here obviously. At the moment my % is around 20. I’m getting good points but end up losing miserably. So this is just getting to be frustrating. Last of the 6 defeats has been down to bonus cards. And when I get decent bonuscard points, the opponent gets something like 16 from one card.
Maybe I should take some Rainman-courses.
If you're interested in some helpful advice, I can review a couple of your games and offer feedback. If so, post a couple of links to 2 games in which you think you may have been able to win but didn't.

Re: Winning %

Posted: 24 April 2025, 18:28
by GifusGray
Yeah, that would be nice. Thank you in advance.

Here's the links:

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=663557000

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=663533648

Re: Winning %

Posted: 24 April 2025, 23:44
by FrankJones
GifusGray wrote: 24 April 2025, 18:28 Yeah, that would be nice. Thank you in advance.

Here's the links:

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=663557000

1. Northern shoveler is a bad bird. Cannot use a precious food to keep that card. It’s 4 food for 7 points and does the same thing as spotted sandpiper, which is 5 points for 1 food. You must be mindful of the points to food ratio. You don’t really need that nest, your other two birds have that nest for the R3 goal.

2. You used a “draw card” action to take the House Finch. The Very Strong House Finch. I am okay with this, even though ideally you get to place your spotted Sandpiper before activating the wetland.

3. Your secpond play is a significant error, caused by the fact that you kept the norther shoveler and no worm. You have 2 birds that require a worm, and you kept a cherry. You should have played the painted whitestart as your first card, then when you gain food, you get 2 food instead of one. So, this is already a game in which you are very far behind. And now you still only have one worm, and two cards that require a worm. I think I see your reasoning – you wanted a cherry for the house Finch. But, that’s why you need to keep only the painted whitestart and the spotted sandpiper, and keep a worm, grain, and cherry. You must examine your starting situation and plan you first 3 moves. Your first five moves should have been, draw house finch, play the painted whitestart, then gain food, netting you two worms. Then play the spotted sandpiper. Then play the house finch. At that point, you have a good bird in each habitat, one extra food, and you’re looking good for the end round goal. Sixth turn you draw cards, gaining 2 cards. Then you lay eggs and activate the house finch, doing a tuck and draw. You might even get a playable bird (now that you have one food and one egg, which would almost certainly win the R1 goal.

4. On your next turn in the actual game, you again did the single card draw for the peregrine falcon. Why? You have a worm. Play the spotted sandpiper. The peregrine falcon does nothing for your bonus card or the end-round goals. SO far you have done a “gain single resource” 3 times, have played no birds (The EOR goal is birds played), and have zero points, and no brown powers to use. Honestly, this game is already lost at this point. That’s too many sub-optimal plays to recover from.

5. Then you played the northern shoveler. You basically traded 2 grain for 2 points. That’s a game-losing error in the first round. A food is worth WAY more than a point in the early game. The spotted sandpiper was the play. You have the resources for a 4th bird, but because of the inefficient actions, you have not yet laid eggs and therefore cannot play a 4th bird, and your opponent will win the EOR goal, which is a 3 or 6 point swing (depending on whether you tie or win the goal.)

6. On your 8th turn, there are two major errors. You took the broad Winged Hawk (why?), and also, you are drawing cards when the round is about to end and put out new cards. The play here is to lay eggs and swap a card using the house finch. You are grabbing cards that do nothing for your bonus card or any of the end round goals. Why? What’s the plan?

Round 2:
1. The wild turkey. It will be awhile before you can play this bird, and then it has no ongoing ability. You need to build an engine with brown powers. You still have the spotted sandpiper in your hand from the start. That’s bad. Why are you still drawing birds? You already have the sandpiper and two birds you wanted enough to spend valuable turns getting them (The hawk and the falcon). And you have the excellent black tern (Wetland only, helps your bonus card, star nest which helps the end round goal).

2. Also, you have the house finch! It’s awesome. Use it. You gain 2 eggs, a tuck, and a card swap. That’s 3 points and a crucial card swap. Instead, you did an action that gives you 2 cards and your opponent 1, and gave you no points and no crucial eggs.

3. And you just took a fourth rat. Why? You have 3 already. You need to get a worm and get Foster’s Tern on the board. You’re nowhere close to being able to play the Egret, and even then, you do not need more than 3 rats. There is no reason to play both predators.

4. Now you play the Peregrine falcon. This bird gives static points if it succeeds. Early game you want usable resources from brown powers. The Tree Swallow should be a priority.

5. You tucked the tree swallow ☹ A high value bird that meets your bonus card.

6. Next is the broad winged hawk. A bad unless you have rodentologist or falconer bonus card. Again, even if it succeeds (it rarely does), you get no usable resource. This is a game of efficiency and resource management.

7. You could have just gained 2 food by tossing the hawk, saving an action cube (by not playing it), and then played both Wilson’s snipe and the spotted sandpiper.

Round 3: You played the Wilson’s snipe. I would not have done that. You need the white=-throated swift – you are going to have extra cards from using your wetland, and it is crucial to have a “tuck and egg” to convert a junk card into two points. If I were your opponent, I would “hate draft” the white-throated swift by activating my middle row. More to the point, you already should have had the Wilson’s snipe on the board, but you played the hawk instead.

8. Now you draw cards, but did not take the swift. This is a significant error.

9. Now you’re laying eggs. Had you taken the white-throated swift, you could have gained an extra 2 points from the lay eggs action.

10. American Robin – Excellent card. Good play.

11. Your opponent is playing bad cards. The two forest cards are terrible. He almost certainly has the bonus card for cavity nests.

12. End round goal goes to opponent again, even though you had enough ground nests to tie him.

Round 4: I would recommend gaining food and playing the Wood Stork and the whooping crane. That’s +12 points and 2 more bonus cards.
1. Great Egret and whooping crane is fine. You get one less bonus card, but you save an action cube to use in your grassland.

2. The Warbler is correct 0 it’s 7 points instead of the 4 or 5 you get from your grassland. But why on turn 4? Run your grassland again, maybe you somehow end up with an even better bird for your final turn. You cannot compete for the end round goal anyway, he has more eggs than you can hold even with the warbler.

I was wrong about his bonus card. Well, despite all this, you scored 98. That’s a winning score most of the time.

I would have played the stork and the Whooping crane.
Egret + Whooping crane gives you 9 points, +4 for your bonus card, and one more bonus card. And you can run your grassland 3 times.

But, Whooping crane + Wood Stork gives you 8 points + 4 points for your original bonus card, and an extra bonus card. You get one less grassland activation, But your grassland is only worth 4-5 points (depending on whether the falcon succeeds.) The bonus card could be a 7 pointer, and you needed to try to catch up.