Board Game Arena

Is it just me, or does it seem like there's a pattern when you hit around 350 rank (or "strong player") in a game that suddenly you can't win for anything for the next 10-12 games? No matter what, the other player seems to get all the best cards or the best rolls, and you don't start to win again until you drop to around 200. When the losing streak is over, then suddenly you win like crazy, even when taking chances or making dumb moves. Do you seem to have drastic swings in good luck and bad luck on this platform?

I've been a premium member for years, and this has happened to me enough times that I feel like I can predict before a game starts if I will win or lose, depending on what kind of streak I'm on at the moment, no matter the experience level of the other player. Enough of a pattern that I'm wondering if there's some kind of algorithm at play...And maybe this is why higher ranked players will repeatedly decline a game with me (when my karma is 100% and I haven't played with them before). If they are on a losing streak, they don't want to keep losing to players ranked much lower? I.e., if they are only losing to players with a higher ranking, they don't lose rank as spectacularly.

I know I shouldn't care about ranking and points, but I'm kind of competitive with myself. I'm just wondering if this is all in my head or if others experience these drastic losing streaks followed by amazing winning streaks?

It's all in your head.

JoDough wrote: ↑11 June 2025, 01:48 When the losing streak is over, then suddenly you win like crazy, even when taking chances or making dumb moves. Do you seem to have drastic swings in good luck and bad luck on this platform?

A losing streak ends when you start winning, by definition. Swings in good luck and bad luck is the same and natural. They might seem drastic, but they are completely natural. Also depends on the game, some games have more randomness than others.

In Cant Stop I have had crazy winning streaks (say, 17 wins from 20 games) when I was around 350+ Elo which brought me far over 400 Elo and Elo#1.
Quite recently I was below 200 and had a crazy losing streak (say, 3 wins from 20 games) which brought me down to 125 Elo.

These streaks happen and one feels invincible (when winning) or helpless (when losing) in those cases.

Elo scores do not influence that. But if you have a huge winning streak with a high Elo it feels less valuable since you gain only few points. Having a huge losing streak with a high Elo feels devastating since you lose a lot of points (you are expected to win if you have high ELO - just to keep your score)...

euklid314 wrote: ↑11 June 2025, 10:23 But if you have a huge winning streak with a high Elo it feels less valuable since you gain only few points. Having a huge losing streak with a high Elo feels devastating since you lose a lot of points

Which would also contribute to perception bias, as you've more likely to remember/notice bigger swings.

If you (OP) really think there's a pattern, note your results after each game (you do need to record every game though, or at least every table you play for the same game). Starting ELO and whether it's a "good luck" or "bad luck" game (or probably also neutral). If you get a non-random pattern after recording say 50 games, keep going. If you still have a non-random pattern after 1000 games or so, that might indicate something askew (but may need some proper statistical analysis to confirm).

Fair point about tracking results. I'm trying to decide whether it's worth it to do that or if I just have to let it go.

While I think it is most likely in your head and your W/L progression fits what would be expected if all the games have fixed probability of winning, it is also possible you go o tilt.

If you get to a high rank due to a bit of luck and then lose a couple of games you get frustrated and start playing badly, maybe your winning streak got you thinking you can go further in a push your luck game.

Probably a good share of (strong) players play with filters, blocking weak/strong players from their tables, for more balanced games and not lose too many points in case of a loss.
And you may even have set some too (but forgot about it)?

Both leads to you getting stronger opponents - and lose more - when you climb to higher tiers.

aesche wrote: ↑11 June 2025, 20:12 Probably a good share of strong players play with filters, blocking weak players from their tables, for more balanced games and not lose too many points in case of a loss.
And you may even have set some too (but forgot about it)?

Both leads to you getting stronger opponents - and lose more - when you climb to higher tiers.

Yeah, I play with filters. I'd say the motivation for various players depends on the game. The larger the rating gap, the less reliable it becomes at predicting the ratio of victory. In some games the filters are to improve the quality of the game, despite the rating benefits. At a certain skill gap, the weaker player isn't even a real opponent to the stronger one, to beat them is laughable and even 1 point or less is just free rating. There are some users on this site that even abuse that to get higher ratings. In other games, the filters are more to avoid the absurd rating differences leading to potential losses from variance overcoming the skill gap. It comes down to how much variance can affect the outcome.

To be fair, gaps with such rating gaps probably shouldn't be played in rated for both reasons, the gap just isn't reliably measured at such numbers and is ripe for abuse, though in many cases players just want to get games on the site when possible.

JoDough wrote: ↑11 June 2025, 01:48 Is it just me, or does it seem like there's a pattern when you hit around 350 rank (or "strong player") in a game that suddenly you can't win for anything for the next 10-12 games? ...

Its not just you but you are imagining it. Your brain is very had at handling randomness, as are all human brains. It will try very very hard to convince you that it is not random and there is a pattern. Which is why that feeling develops into conspiracy theories.