Board Game Arena

https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=696629494

I can only laugh at how many times stuff like this happens to me. I'm in the acceptance stage in the grief process. Also, notice my 7 rolls. Pure gold!

Your game had 66 moves, i.e. 43 (overlapping) sequences of 24 consecutive rolls. One of these 43 sequences did contain neither 6 and 8.

The expected value of this to happen is
43*(26/36)^24=0.0137=1:73

Thus you are expected to have one such event per 73 games.

Nice math! Now try this one 4 days later!

https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=698012311

The first 15 seven rolls in the game were 9 rolls for orange, 7 rolls for blue and ZERO for me. What are the odds of that happening? The 16th seven roll was mine because it cost me half my resources (only way I seem to roll 7s). I got one more after that then the game ended.

When ludicrously improbable happens regularly against me, I question what the reason is. The answer is not "probability".

Guru-93 wrote: ↑07 July 2025, 18:14 When ludicrously improbable happens regularly against me, I question what the reason is.

Exactly. When it happens against someone else you don't question anything and simply assume that your strategy was better

I rarely roll the most 7s in a game, in enough games to recognize a pattern. I want a reasonable distribution, aka fairness.

Maybe something else could convince you.
I will try to count the amout of 'weird' things you could report here:
- one number rolled too much (11 possible) or too few (let's remove 2/3/4/10/11/12, and keep 5).
- two numbers rolled too much (55 duos possible) or too few (40 duos possible)
- a special amout of players rolling most of the 7 (4 possibles for single player, 6 for duos, 4 for trios, 1 for quatuors, total 15)
- a special amout of players rolling most of the 6 or 8, or both of them (45 possible)
- one number rolled too much in a row (11* the amount of series, if you got 60 rolls total, and are you looking for like 6+ sevens in a row, we got 54 start of series possible, which leave 594 possibilities)
- the same thing but for a specific player (396 possibilitiés)
- a duo of number rolled too much in a row like rolling 9/4/4/9/9/4 (2970 possibilities)

So yeah with only all of that, I reached 3000 things possibles to check. And I could goes on.
So if after the maths about one of those things,you find a probability of 0.002%, you need to take into account the 3000 things possible which could happen. So it's roughly 1-((1-0.00002)^3000)=5.8% for that event to happen, so that should happen 1 every 20 games. But you find something which seem extremely rare 0.002%. And if you complete my list with even more things you could report, that increase the probability further.
That 0.002% is equivalent to rolling six 7 in a row, or rolling a duos of 4&9 in a row.

So yeah the answer is probability.
You see something weird happening accross the thousands of things which could happen, find that the probability of that event is around 0.02%, but when taking the 3000 things possible which could happen into consideration, 1 of them should happen every 2 games.



If you want to convince us it's easy, it's probabilities. Just list the things you are ok to report now, like I tried here, and then in the future (and that's the most important part), you report them.
If really something is weird, probabilities would not keep up.

Guru-93 wrote: ↑07 July 2025, 19:30 I rarely roll the most 7s in a game, in enough games to recognize a pattern. I want a reasonable distribution, aka fairness.

Oh I didn't see it was a claim, that will be fun.

So let's take your games: https://boardgamearena.com/gamestats?pl ... finished=0 .

Since you got biaised recently, let's not take your most recent games, but those who start from the start of june.
So it is games from #681874634 to #681350340.
And let's see:
I don't know from which order I took them but the total number of 7s were:
9/13/9/11/15/3/15/10/13/17
And your numbers of 7s were:
1/4/2/5/6/2/4/4/3/5

They were all 3 players games.
So we got 1/9 - 4/13 - 2/9 - 5/11 - 6/15 - 2/3 - 4/15 - 4/10 - 3/13 - 5/17

Total: 36/115. We was expecting 38.3 in average, so yeah on those 10 games, you was just right below. But you got four games were you rolled more than 33% of the sevens.
And it's a set of 10 random games.

Guru-93 wrote: ↑07 July 2025, 19:30 I rarely roll the most 7s in a game, in enough games to recognize a pattern. I want a reasonable distribution, aka fairness.

Sorry to be so direct with my wording. But I absolutely hate it when players lie on purpose on the forum to either gain attention or to sow distrust.

Thanks, Romain672, for checking 10 games - otherwise I would have probably done it manually.

Romain672 wrote: ↑07 July 2025, 20:29 So yeah the answer is probability.
You see something weird happening accross the thousands of things which could happen, find that the probability of that event is around 0.02%, but when taking the 3000 things possible which could happen into consideration, 1 of them should happen every 2 games.

Spot on. It really doesn't take checking for very many 'weird' things to realise something 'weird' happens in pretty much every game.

Quite honestly the strangest thing that could happen is to see a statistically correct roll of each number within a single game.

Guru-93 wrote: ↑07 July 2025, 19:30 I want a reasonable distribution, aka fairness.

OK, but randomness is not fair, and randomness is not reasonable. You want something different from randomness.