AndreRhineDavis wrote: ↑01 August 2025, 18:55
I disagree Romain.
I don't know of any masters who play with these "5-stalls", that a 5 clue in the early game is not a play clue. This seems very arbitrary and against the principle that conventions should be as consistent as possible. If you clue a card not on chop, it is a play clue. Hanabi is not a game of probability calculations, you should never choose an option over another option based on "hmmm, that's not very likely is it?". Instead, clues should lead to deterministic behaviour, given the knowledge that a player has.
I'm Bayesian, which is explained there:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference 
It consist to give a probability to any event which could happen (like chance for me to eat before 9 pm), and correct the probability depending of any new information I could gain (like passing more and more time writing that forum post)
When you create or think about conventions you should definitively think about probabilities.
When you are playing, I personnally think you should, but I think player's opinions will vary a lot on that.
The 5-stall in early game are kinda the exception, but a good rule of thumb is when you need to do 2 blind play, then it's unlikely you got both cards. So you should try to find alternatives way to think about the clue: was it a clue to resynchronise the team? Does that player which did something weird before still didn't get something? Is it a new player and it's obvious it was a mistake (still I know some players would want to bomb in purpose to show to that player that wasn't fine, while others would be careful of that clue and try to correct it if they can)?
If you find no other intepretation, then you should trust it's a finesse.
If it's 1 blind play, it's likely, so you just play normally: conventions were created for that.
I will do a section about maths, but if you are not into probability, you will dismiss that section all together.
Those numbers are really important. When you get to your second blind play you divide by 30 the chance for that situation to arise (10*3players). When you add a third one, it's by 300.
So let's said usually when you answer to a clue without much thinking, you are confident at like 97% (ie one bomb per game)(that englobe everything: chance for that player to do a bad clue, chance for you to have missed something, chance for something unlikely is happening, and so on...) that you should blind play one card. Now you receive a clue where you need to blind play 2 cards, that probability goes to 52%
(this was calculated with odds, if you know maths well, feel free to correct my numbers if they are far off). If you need to blind play 3 cards, that probability goes to 10%.
Those numbers are confusing. What I mean by those is that you should check a lot more about that situation (what i said earlier) to make that probability goes higher. If per example by passing 2 minutes of thinking, you goes from 97% to 99.5% for one blind play (which is an enormous leap), then it will be 87% for 2 blind play, and it goes to 40% for three blind plays, and to 6.22% for four blind play.
87% can be fine, you will bomb one time out of six.
But 40% is annoying. Even if you would be 99.5% confident about an usual clue, then that would lead to a bomb 6 times out of 10. That's really bad odds. So if you try to win, you either need to be even more confident about the situation, or you do an action which have 60% chance to bomb.
[note that you should most of the time do something. If you ignore the clue, not only others must deal with that clue, but must deal too with you not answering. That can be a lot worst][and note that I never advised to ignore the clue, I always advise to find alternatives. And that's really important]
In my opinion, not taking any probability into account will make follow conventions strongly, not taking any exception into account, having a strong base, but will (not be fun first

) lead to trusting astronomical low odds for the sake of following conventions.
If you see a situation arise 20 times, 19 of them leading to a bomb, but persist to thinking that you should follow conventions, that can be fair, that lead to force everyone to goes into your way, but at the same time, the 19 other times there could have been a reason for not following them, and you lose all of that value there.
When I was playing on bga, I was doing them really rarely (I need strong reason, like on my previous post), but for me, that's a really good way to start to think more deeply.
And since many intermediate player just do 5-stall without reason in early game, just doing them too in masters game look a good way to get some extra value (when that lead to force other to assume the right interpretation, or something extremely unlikely).