Board Game Arena

Since the recent update, the 1 victory point card almost always appears as either the first card or the very next one drawn. This started happening exclusively after the recent update which makes me think the generator for the development card draw is corrupt.

You are not the first one telling weird things about development card stack, so I will try to be more careful than usual.

But please, get some data. Decide in your future games to count the number of times what you think did happen, and count the number of times where what you think did not happen. Get even 20 occurences if it's in your future game, or 100 occurences at any point. And then report it.

Coleus1 wrote: ↑28 August 2025, 14:27 Since the recent update, the 1 victory point card almost always appears as either the first card or the very next one drawn. This started happening exclusively after the recent update which makes me think the generator for the development card draw is corrupt.

but the absolute first? your first? how do you know what others draw?

If it is a real issue it shouldn't happen only to you, but how do you know what others are drawing? I am not saying you are incorrect, I am just trying to have clarity on your statement

I haven't seen a trend in getting the same card. Probably a fluke.

Of course one should stay neutral to such a claim till we get statistical data.

Since the OP has claimed to have found a lot of different patterns (i.e. for 7s) in other threads and never bothered to give any plausible data it will be the same here.

For me, I simply dismiss the claim since there will be no data to support it. I let me happily be proven wrong.

Romain672 wrote: ↑28 August 2025, 15:07 You are not the first one telling weird things about development card stack, so I will try to be more careful than usual.

But please, get some data. Decide in your future games to count the number of times what you think did happen, and count the number of times where what you think did not happen. Get even 20 occurences if it's in your future game, or 100 occurences at any point. And then report it.

euklid314 wrote: ↑29 August 2025, 12:32 Of course one should stay neutral to such a claim till we get statistical data.

Since the OP has claimed to have found a lot of different patterns (i.e. for 7s) in other threads and never bothered to give any plausible data it will be the same here.

For me, I simply dismiss the claim since there will be no data to support it. I let me happily be proven wrong.

I feel there's no point on providing data since there will always be a user saying "well the probabily is never 0 of that happening so... it can always occur on the normal distribution curve...". I am also not a pro user so I can't really see the data but the phenomenon occured way too often for me ever since the update not notice.

Theana wrote: ↑29 August 2025, 07:53

Coleus1 wrote: ↑28 August 2025, 14:27 Since the recent update, the 1 victory point card almost always appears as either the first card or the very next one drawn. This started happening exclusively after the recent update which makes me think the generator for the development card draw is corrupt.

but the absolute first? your first? how do you know what others draw?

If it is a real issue it shouldn't happen only to you, but how do you know what others are drawing? I am not saying you are incorrect, I am just trying to have clarity on your statement

This is why I created this post, to see whether other players have noticed the same or not.

Coleus1 wrote: ↑04 September 2025, 07:27I feel there's no point on providing data since there will always be a user saying "well the probabily is never 0 of that happening so... it can always occur on the normal distribution curve...". I am also not a pro user so I can't really see the data but the phenomenon occured way too often for me ever since the update not notice.

There is though.
If you usually read the post in the Catan forum, it's usually user who never talked by the past in the forum who share a streak, and which find a likely or unlikely streak.
But there could be so many things they could check: if you find that in even days the first roll of your Catan's game is 50% of the time 5 or 8, then it's a weak claim, you could have chosen 10000+ differents things to check but you choose that one, so it has very few value.

On the opposite, if you declare something like you did here, and then in your future game you only check that thing, you remove that thing, so if really something is wrong (which is extremely unlikely) you should get much higher probability.

And then (for something you declared before on the forum) it just depend of the probability and the number of occurences:
- 20% or higher: it's just normal
- 3~20%: we will ask you for more data
- 1~3%: you either get lucky or something is wrong. I will start putting much more value to what you said, and check myself some things
- 1% or lower: here we start entering extremely weird probability. So I would do more statistics myself

But the human brain is seeing patterns in places there is none.

After this post I indeed checked and once I actually had a VP, but the second time no and I was the first one picking a development card.

Yes, it often happens that I get one VP card in many games. This happens very frequently. And I can add that there are maps I've played more than once, and the order of the cards drawn is the same for all players. The cards aren't random for the maps. I notice that the cards for many maps are already predefined based on the number/map draw.

Bought the first 3 in a recent game. All knights.