Board Game Arena

When playing high rated players, I notice that their trips to the Caravan result in gold coins nearly every time. A high rated player will choose Caravan three times during the game and each time a gold coin will be drawn.

Is there some kind of pattern to this? I can't imagine that this is possible but the number of times I see high rated players draw coins leads me to believe that they are 'timing' this in some way.

Any one else notice this?

Confirmation bias

EDIT: I just had a game where I visited Caravan three times in row and received a gold coin each time...

Sjarmtrollet wrote: ↑19 November 2025, 00:51 Confirmation bias

EDIT: I just had a game where I visited Caravan three times in row and received a gold coin each time...

I also have had games where I visit the Caravan three times in a row and receive a gold coin. That wasn't what my post was about. If it had been, a single sentence would have sufficed.

But you have demonstrated an elementary understanding of confirmation bias. Unfortunately I cannot give you a grade or any credit for your work. Thanks.

I don't know whatever other answer you're expecting. Certainly, better players will have a higher rate drawing gold cards from the caravan. This is because you can see what cards have come from the pile. If not many of the good cards (gold, VP and double resources) have appeared lately, I'm more interested in going to the caravan than when I've recently seen a lot of them in the centre. If players go so far as to count and they know the cards in the game (both of which I don't really), they can have an even better idea of what to do - both for the caravan and the tribal expansion.