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Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

Posted: 13 September 2026, 16:15
by VladKha
Hi guys,
In the last four days we (me and a friend of mine) noticed something very weird in the game. We started to get significantly weaker opponents (with 100-200 Personal Rating) and got an incredible amount of luck. Below I post my personal stats.
Date Wins-Loses
13.09.2026 3-4 (42% WR)
12.09.2026 19-5 (79% WR)
11.09.2026 16-5 (76% WR)
10.09.2026 12-5 (70% WR)
These 70%+ WRs are rather anomalous, because my personal WR after 1200 games is just 52%. It seems that the game was matching me with weaker opponents and giving me stronger cards, i.e. "luck boost". Also the majority of losses came from higher rating players, like JuliasiG. I climbed up to Top22 in Arena with 1800+ Arena rating and 490 Personal Rating and barely met a player of similar level (400-500 rating).
Also, when I checked my games with JuliasiG (75% personal WR), I noticed rather unusual luck in her cards, like in the games (https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=905701056 and https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=914885566). The probability to get the same and unique green card in the round Two is 9%, but the coincidence of such event in 2 games out of 11 is 0.8%. Our total games score is 1:10, that is quite weird considering my 52% WR and her 75% WR, because statistically she must loose in at least 2-3 out of 10 games.

Also, the 75% WR is extremely mathematically suspicious for a two-player game. The Win Rate must saturate close to 50% at high number of games (and she literally has tens thousands of games) at high level. It seems that the game does not match high-level players to play with each other, otherwise they would inflate each other to the 50% WR, but instead it gives them weaker opponents and "luck boost".

Therefore, I expect a built-in algorithm in the game, which helps premium/high-rating players to climb the ladder. I would like to check the statistical numbers of many players. Could you please write down your Personal Rating, Win Rate, total number of games, Arena Rating and the Type of Account (Normal/Premium). In the following format:
1) Personal Rating - 447;
2) Win Rate - 52%;
3) 1231 games;
4) Arena Rating - 1720;
5) Type of Account - Normal.

Thank you for your collaboration.

Re: Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

Posted: 13 September 2026, 17:25
by jjthejetplane246
so you're proposing that a) higher rated players are intentionally being matched with lower rated players. This doesn't alone help anyone, it's still possible to lose to a weak player and your elo gets destroyed when this happens so it's all accounted for with elo. But to combat this, we have b) where the game intentionally feeds better value cards and improves the luck of the higher rated player. For this to happen, you would need:

1) match-making has built in logic to match higher-rated players with lower-rated players either specifically for 7wd or for all games on BGA (matchmaking is not unique to 7wd so the latter is what it would be)
2) the server code for the game has built in logic that knows game state and how to favor a certain player and makes the decision to manipulate the game

Both of these would be immediately found out and be a massive scandal if they existed. There are many individual developers that work on this site and on different games and the server code is public for anyone to see. I'm not trying to come off as more knowledgable here, but I do work in software engineering and something like this sounds completely insane to me that it would happen and then wouldn't be found out by someone else and flagged.

I think this is yet another instance of humans trying to find patterns and justifications in randomness. If you flip a coin thousands of times, it will tend toward 1/2 but that doesn't mean you can't flip ten heads in a row and that result should not lead us to assume there is an issue with randomness or that there is someone behind the scenes with their finger on the scales.

Re: Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

Posted: 13 September 2026, 18:22
by VladKha
Thank you for your valuable comment. Could you please write down your Personal Rating, Win Rate, total number of games, Arena Rating and the Type of Account (Normal/Premium) as in the message above?

Re: Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

Posted: 13 September 2026, 20:53
by Sacha2142
This is all public information. Gather data, analyze it, and publish your findings.

Re: Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

Posted: 13 September 2026, 20:57
by VladKha
Thank you for your valuable comment. Could you please write down your Personal Rating, Win Rate, total number of games, Arena Rating and the Type of Account (Normal/Premium) as in the message above?

Re: Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

Posted: 13 September 2026, 21:22
by silentProtest
Im reading the BGA forums more and more as humor... some kind of satire or meta irony or post irony, maybe!!
Thanks for the great laugh ! :mrgreen:

If that was some kind of complaint about personal losses because of *insert intrinsically unfair reason* - maybe get to ZeusAi kind of level before confidently writing.. THAT and asking people about winrate and arena success xDDD

Re: Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

Posted: 13 September 2026, 21:47
by Sacha2142
VladKha wrote: 13 September 2026, 20:57 Thank you for your valuable comment. Could you please write down your Personal Rating, Win Rate, total number of games, Arena Rating and the Type of Account (Normal/Premium) as in the message above?
Sacha2142 wrote: 13 September 2026, 20:53 This is all public information. Gather data, analyze it, and publish your findings.
:)

Re: Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

Posted: 13 September 2026, 22:04
by VladKha
silentProtest wrote: 13 September 2026, 21:22 Im reading the BGA forums more and more as humor... some kind of satire or meta irony or post irony, maybe!!
Thanks for the great laugh ! :mrgreen:

If that was some kind of complaint about personal losses because of *insert intrinsically unfair reason* - maybe get to ZeusAi kind of level before confidently writing.. THAT and asking people about winrate and arena success xDDD
Thank you for your valuable comment. Could you please write down your Personal Rating, Win Rate, total number of games, Arena Rating and the Type of Account (Normal/Premium) as in the message above?

Re: Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

Posted: 13 September 2026, 22:09
by VladKha
Sacha2142 wrote: 13 September 2026, 21:47
VladKha wrote: 13 September 2026, 20:57 Thank you for your valuable comment. Could you please write down your Personal Rating, Win Rate, total number of games, Arena Rating and the Type of Account (Normal/Premium) as in the message above?
Sacha2142 wrote: 13 September 2026, 20:53 This is all public information. Gather data, analyze it, and publish your findings.
:)
I would prefer to have everything in a single message thread, instead of multiple clicking and jumping from one to another profile in the constantly changing ladder. However, if someone can dedicate their time to data collection, and can provide the required dataset, I would appreciate it.

Re: Hidden luck bonus in the game algorithm

Posted: 13 September 2026, 22:58
by Sacha2142
That was my point.