Search found 14 matches

by Meamer
22 October 2026, 05:41
Forum: Terra Mystica
Topic: Fast Auction Guide
Replies: 9
Views: 647

Re: Fast Auction Guide

Pretty sure FBones switched Players 2 and 3 in the previous sentence. It should be: "The final results will be something like Player 1 paying 33 points for Auren, Player 3 paying 4 points for Fakirs, and Player 2 getting CM for free." With that change, the sentence you quoted now makes sen...
by Meamer
09 October 2026, 15:59
Forum: Discussions
Topic: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Replies: 148
Views: 4854

Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy

I check a few games. On the games I checked, the percentage of doubles is indeed always a multiple of 4... except when the game didn't finish.

Mizzou, when you calculated the average, did you include the unfinished games and give them equal weight to the finished games?
by Meamer
13 September 2026, 02:14
Forum: Discussions
Topic: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Replies: 148
Views: 4854

Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy

Within reason. If a million consecutive dice rolls came up doubles, we could reasonably conclude the function used to call a dice roll was coded improperly. If the probability of something is approaching 1 / Graham's number, or 1 / Tree(3), there's probably an issue. Yes, you would reasonably concl...
by Meamer
13 September 2026, 00:25
Forum: Discussions
Topic: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Replies: 148
Views: 4854

Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy

As long as it's not 0, it's still possible. Therefore it will happen and is no proof for rigged dice. Really. What if they were rolling doubles 90% of the time? The probability of that also isn't zero. So it will happen at some point. If you really want to proof anything, you have to check all roll...
by Meamer
12 September 2026, 17:06
Forum: Discussions
Topic: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Replies: 148
Views: 4854

Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy

Since I posted about a month ago, my doubles % in COB has actually gotten WORSE! I now have a 17.25% double rate over almost 90000 rolls in 3900 games. Statistically the chance of this is beyond ridiculous and is costing me a lot of games. I realize there are streaks of bad luck but COME ON. The ac...
by Meamer
12 September 2026, 17:03
Forum: Discussions
Topic: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Replies: 148
Views: 4854

Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy

and is costing me a lot of games It really isn't. Let's assume for a moment that the statistics are completely accurate and a coding error has somehow resulted in your true probability of doubles being 17.25% instead of 16.67%. That's one extra double every seven games . How much would that cost yo...
by Meamer
22 August 2026, 06:26
Forum: Discussions
Topic: doubles in Castles of burgundy
Replies: 148
Views: 4854

Re: doubles in Castles of burgundy

In this case, the AI calculation isn't the problem. For a binomial distribution with a success rate of 1/6 and 175,000 trials, I get a probability of 3.05x10^-10 of getting at least 17.22% successes. Yes, 17.22% is very close to 1/6, but over 175,000 trials it should be *even closer*. But where did ...
by Meamer
08 May 2026, 14:43
Forum: Discussions
Topic: the *decreasing ELO gain if you win against the same players rule*
Replies: 51
Views: 2110

Re: the *decreasing ELO gain if you win against the same players rule*

There's a massive thread of complaints about this feature from back when it was first introduced, none of which swayed BGA.
by Meamer
06 May 2026, 18:26
Forum: Darwin's Journey
Topic: ship - scientist on a sample - sample unclear
Replies: 2
Views: 189

Re: ship - scientist on a sample - sample unclear

If you click on the board, all the player pieces disappear temporarily, so you can see what's underneath.

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