doubles in Castles of burgundy

[FrankJones]

Since I posted about a month ago, my doubles % in COB has actually gotten WORSE! I now have a 17.25% double rate over almost 90000 rolls in 3900 games. Statistically the chance of this is beyond ridiculous and is costing me a lot of games. I realize there are streaks of bad luck but COME ON. The actual statistical chance is 1 in 628259, or .000157%. Come on Dave, gimme a break...

Chill out.

First of all, you cannot possibly know that you have a double rate of 17.25 % over 3900 games. When you view your stats, it only shows the average stats of your most recent 500 games.

Second, that fact alone could explain some of the unusual numbers. People are thinking "Oh, these are my stats in ten thousand games, and the probability of this occurring over a stretch of ten thousand games is 0.00000000000000000001 % .... "

[Silene]

First of all, you cannot possibly know that you have a double rate of 17.25 % over 3900 games. When you view your stats, it only shows the average stats of your most recent 500 games.

You say this as if it was common knowledge. But I hear it for the first time. This could easily explain some odd numbers. But where did you find this Info? I can't find this in the FAQ and also it's not mentioned in the statistics table (which I think it really should be if it is the case!)

[Ehronde]

Since I posted about a month ago, my doubles % in COB has actually gotten WORSE! I now have a 17.25% double rate over almost 90000 rolls in 3900 games. Statistically the chance of this is beyond ridiculous and is costing me a lot of games. I realize there are streaks of bad luck but COME ON. The actual statistical chance is 1 in 628259, or .000157%. Come on Dave, gimme a break...

As long as it's not 0, it's still possible. Therefore it will happen and is no proof for rigged dice.

[Meamer]

and is costing me a lot of games

It really isn't.

Let's assume for a moment that the statistics are completely accurate and a coding error has somehow resulted in your true probability of doubles being 17.25% instead of 16.67%.

That's one extra double every seven games.

How much would that cost you? The impact of rolling doubles is highly variable; often you can easily pivot, occasionally it denies you a critical play, most of the time it's a nuisance you have to work around. But on average, it can't be worse than losing your entire turn.

Let's say you average 200 points per game (a bit generous based on your stats). That's an average of 8 points per turn. If the dice are robbing you of an entire turn every seven games, that's a bit more than one point per game.

I don't know about you, but when I play CoB, my scores vary by way more than that game to game. Sometimes I have good luck, sometimes bad. Sometimes I'm having an off day and make mistakes. Sometimes I spot a few clever tricks and crush my opponents. If rigged dice were denying me one point per game, I would not notice this; it would be completely swamped by ordinary variation.

What's actually happening, of course, is that you feel like you're getting hit with constant doubles, and you've dug into the game statistics looking for validation. But the feeling and the statistics have nothing to do with each other. The feeling comes from human intuition being bad at probability; everyone feels like the dice are against them. A tiny bias in the dice is only detectable by doing statistics.

[BarnardsStar]

When you view your stats, it only shows the average stats of your most recent 500 games.

You say this as if it was common knowledge. But I hear it for the first time. This could easily explain some odd numbers. But where did you find this Info? I can't find this in the FAQ and also it's not mentioned in the statistics table (which I think it really should be if it is the case!)

I suspect it's because Frank is a dev on a game, so is privvy to some inside information. But I had already deduced above that the stats were a much smaller window than expected, so this makes sense to me. I'd like some confirmation that it's definitely 500 games, but it makes sense. So this means ...

I now have a 17.25% double rate over almost 90000 rolls in 3900 games.

that it's actually a 17.25% double rate over, let's call it 12,500 rolls (it's probably less due to truncated games in the sample). That works out to 2156 doubles, and the chances of getting at least 2156 doubles in 12,500 rolls is 4.2%. So it's somewhat unlikely, but out of thousands of players, there's a lot of people who will see this happen.

[Meamer]

Since I posted about a month ago, my doubles % in COB has actually gotten WORSE! I now have a 17.25% double rate over almost 90000 rolls in 3900 games. Statistically the chance of this is beyond ridiculous and is costing me a lot of games. I realize there are streaks of bad luck but COME ON. The actual statistical chance is 1 in 628259, or .000157%. Come on Dave, gimme a break...

As long as it's not 0, it's still possible. Therefore it will happen and is no proof for rigged dice.

Really. What if they were rolling doubles 90% of the time? The probability of that also isn't zero.

[Silene]

When you view your stats, it only shows the average stats of your most recent 500 games.

You say this as if it was common knowledge. But I hear it for the first time. This could easily explain some odd numbers. But where did you find this Info? I can't find this in the FAQ and also it's not mentioned in the statistics table (which I think it really should be if it is the case!)

I suspect it's because Frank is a dev on a game, so is privvy to some inside information. But I had already deduced above that the stats were a much smaller window than expected, so this makes sense to me. I'd like some confirmation that it's definitely 500 games, but it makes sense.

I find it absolutely acceptable if this is the case. But it's a bit of a bummer that you see a statistics table that suggest to show my average over all my games when it's in fact only the last 500. It should be mentioned somewhere to those that view the table. My suggestion is use the empty upper left corner of the table and put the text "statistics over the last 500 games" there or something. Or at least explain it in the FAQ. Anyway, good to know now. Thanks for the Info!

[Ehronde]

Since I posted about a month ago, my doubles % in COB has actually gotten WORSE! I now have a 17.25% double rate over almost 90000 rolls in 3900 games. Statistically the chance of this is beyond ridiculous and is costing me a lot of games. I realize there are streaks of bad luck but COME ON. The actual statistical chance is 1 in 628259, or .000157%. Come on Dave, gimme a break...

As long as it's not 0, it's still possible. Therefore it will happen and is no proof for rigged dice.

Really. What if they were rolling doubles 90% of the time? The probability of that also isn't zero.

So it will happen at some point.

If you really want to proof anything, you have to check all rolls ever made in all games ever played on BGA. If you consider only one game and only the games one single player played, that's only a small excerpt and might proof nothing.

[Cile]

is costing me a lot of games

So do you think the dice not being truly random is only affecting you?

[FrankJones]

First of all, you cannot possibly know that you have a double rate of 17.25 % over 3900 games. When you view your stats, it only shows the average stats of your most recent 500 games.

You say this as if it was common knowledge. But I hear it for the first time. This could easily explain some odd numbers. But where did you find this Info? I can't find this in the FAQ and also it's not mentioned in the statistics table (which I think it really should be if it is the case!)

I intended it to be informative; it was not my intent to say it as though everyone already knew it. I only recently found this out myself. I forget exactly where I learned this, but you're right, it should be made more clear by BGA.