lots of double sixes?

[BillyBobBanjo]

i seem to see lots of double sixes in this game. Four on the trot in one game. is this just statistical fluke or has anyone else experienced this?

[Pistol Star]

i seem to see lots of double sixes in this game. Four on the trot in one game. is this just statistical fluke or has anyone else experienced this?

There is a 2.78% chance to roll 66 in any given turn and you have 25 turns per game plus each opponent has 25 dice rolls per game. So in only one game of only 2 players you already see 50 dice rolls. in a 4 player game 100 dice rolls. you will definitely see some numbers (much) more often than others over a small enough sample size. I would say anything below 1000 games is a really small sample size. Also remember that probability has no memory. Just because you rolled 66 in your last turn doesn't change the chances for you to roll 66 in your next turn.

There is a 16.67% chance of rolling any identical numbers on any given turn. So these kind of rolls aren't that improbable if you experience 4 times the same roll of 2 identical numbers because the first roll of any identical numbers is very probable with 16.67%. So you need only 3 more identical rolls of that combo to get 4 in a game.

Long answer short: I don't see anything wrong with how the dice are rolled.

[Qualitaetsgarant]

i seem to see lots of double sixes in this game. Four on the trot in one game. is this just statistical fluke or has anyone else experienced this?

In a 2 - player - game, the probability to roll 4 or more 6-6 is almost exactly 5%. Which means in average every 20th game you should see 4 or more 6-6 rolled.

6-6 is a memorable roll, so those stay in mind i believe.

[Niall]

It is pretty improbable to get 4 of the same double in a row, but randomness has an exceptional habit of looking ordered during to the human brain’s tendency to seek correlation, even where it doesn’t exist.

By my reckoning, there is a (1/36)^4 chance of rolling 4 double 6’s back to back. You get 21 goes at this per game, but each attempt after the first is not quite independent, and needs to be scaled by 35/36 accordingly.

If this is right, in 25 rolls, one player has a 1/82169 chance of rolling a double 6 four times in a row. Given two players, this gives a 1/41084 chance of this occurring in a given game. And in turn, 6* this, a 1/6847 chance of 4 of any specific double in a row in any given game. There have been many multiples of that many games played on BGA, so it’s bound to turn up randomly on occasion. The OP should probably consider themselves one of the lucky few to see this!

That said, randomness is hard for computers to do, and tends to be synthesised through the use of sequential results in a big list of random numbers, from a given “seed point” on that list. There is a possibility of some issue with how seed numbers are fetched or handled on the website, but I’ve no further insight to offer on this.

[Niall]

In retrospect actually that 35/36 factor is unnecessary, as it rules out rolling 5 or more of the same number in a row (which would seem even more notable), but this only makes about 2.5% difference to the probabilities I quote.

[Pistol Star]

Good work and interesting read, guys