Unusual Die Results?

[xone01]

I've played several games now and I feel like there are a disproportionate number of results in the 8-10 range. Obviously, statistically these are pretty common results for a pair of standard dice, but anecdotally it seems like way more than normal. Is anyone else experiencing this? I don't want to report it as a bug if it's just me and my group, so I want to see if others are finding the same thing.

[T72on1]

I only have a couple of games under my belt. But in those I didn't notice anything peculiar.

[Ranior]

The game summaries has your die roll summaries so you can review them and see if anything looks odd.

Looking at your games though, there's nothing unusual at all in them.

Almost every game on BGA that has die rolls has someone posting in the forums about how the dice are somehow being manipulated to help their opponents, but there's been almost no situations where there actually was an issue with BGA's code. (The one exception I know of was a very weird sequence in a player's Can't Stop history that did review a code problem that was corrected, but as should be expected that took extremely unusual results and a lot of discussion to reveal it and correct it). Anyhow my point is that humans are bad at evaluating randomness generally, and this seems to be no exception.

[Jellby]

(The one exception I know of was a very weird sequence in a player's Can't Stop history that did review a code problem that was corrected, but as should be expected that took extremely unusual results and a lot of discussion to reveal it and correct it).

And the problem, as far as we were told and I understood, was not in the die rolls, but in the code that handled what happened after.

[Meeplelowda]

anecdotally

This is the key word. Lots of things "feel" weird anecdotally. I just played a game in which on my turn I only rolled higher than 8 once in the entire game. It may be in the tail of the distribution, but the tails exist and *someone* has to experience them. If no one ever had a low probability sequence, that in itself would be suspicious.

[Bakuryu13]

I've run into this issue as well on the low end, so much so that I suspect the person was cheating because the statistical probability of the outcomes was next to nil. Table #258259941. Opp buys two cards over 8 early and then stacks all low cards and miraculously never rolls higher than a 7 after turn 8. In fact, in the 21 turns they rolled two 10s and a single 9, all in the first 8 turns. No 8's - the rest were 7 or lower. I happened to have an arrow set up from 9-12 that literally never got activated. Which means for 13 straight turns they never broke a 7, the probability of which is ~.0898% Not 8% but barely 9 hundredths of ONE percent. My rolls followed a relatively normal distribution. I'm not sure if its happening more in the lightspeed variant but Ive noticed it in a few other games and that variant was the only common thread

[BrightTiger]

1s and 2s plague me through multiple games, with long stretches of under 7 rolls. Strange improbable runs that I do not see in other dice games on BGA.

[mturton]

I've run into this issue as well on the low end, so much so that I suspect the person was cheating because the statistical probability of the outcomes was next to nil. Table #258259941. Opp buys two cards over 8 early and then stacks all low cards and miraculously never rolls higher than a 7 after turn 8. In fact, in the 21 turns they rolled two 10s and a single 9, all in the first 8 turns. No 8's - the rest were 7 or lower. I happened to have an arrow set up from 9-12 that literally never got activated. Which means for 13 straight turns they never broke a 7, the probability of which is ~.0898% Not 8% but barely 9 hundredths of ONE percent. My rolls followed a relatively normal distribution. I'm not sure if its happening more in the lightspeed variant but Ive noticed it in a few other games and that variant was the only common thread

The dice arent rigged. But internet dice rollers fall into recognizable patterns and stay there. I dont play Catan on their steam and mobile version b/c the dice are reliably predictable.

If i get into a situation like you describe i concede once the pattern is established. No point in playing...

[Jellby]

If you can recognize a pattern, please report it to the php developers.

[Shazzypaz]

If you are concerned about randomness, please do not report a bug against the game itself. Upvote and/or comment on this bug report:

https://boardgamearena.com/bug?id=72077