Random dice rolling????

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Post569
Posts: 2
Joined: 11 March 2020, 01:48

Random dice rolling????

Post by Post569 »

The frequency that I miss 50% hit rolls is a near statistical impossibility.
I just hit one out of 10 on a surrounded tank, a statistical probability of 0.977%
The amount of times I miss infantry rolls 5, 6, 7 or 8 times in a row happens about every third game.
One game I missed 19 rolls in a row, a few of these were against artillery but really???

Let the rant begin, these numbers are not random!!
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Jeronimon
Posts: 301
Joined: 11 June 2022, 11:34

Re: Random dice rolling????

Post by Jeronimon »

Welcome to Memoir’44, statistics and the human mind.

What you describe kind of proves that the numbers are random. Those occurrences are not rare in Memoir’44, either on here or in real life on a board.
You probably also have seen 4/4 hits on infantry or even 3/3 hits on tanks (hopefully for yourself)

The human mind tends to fear losses more than appropriate wins. So the losses weigh heavier on you than the wins do.

If you figure out a way to deal with the rolls, accept them without getting frustrated and just move in to the next turn with your new information, you will become a better Memoir’44 player.


On the old online adaption you got the dice statistics at the end of each game and could see wether you were close to hitting each dice face 16,6% of the time. One guy in there counter over ten thousand thrown dice and came up aces on the numbers on that site.
If you doubt the dice here on BGA you might want to try that also 😎


If you go to the FAQ page (https://boardgamearena.com/faq) and search for “dice”, you will find information on how BGA handles random events.
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Duncan TMS
Posts: 602
Joined: 11 December 2022, 18:31

Re: Random dice rolling????

Post by Duncan TMS »

Bonjour,
C'est un sujet qui revient souvent , "les résultats de dés sont bizarres non ?" :shock:
Bien à vous! ;)

https://www.random.org/analysis/
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Tisaac
Posts: 2736
Joined: 26 August 2014, 21:28

Re: Random dice rolling????

Post by Tisaac »

Jeronimon wrote: 28 December 2022, 07:17 Welcome to Memoir’44, statistics and the human mind.

What you describe kind of proves that the numbers are random. Those occurrences are not rare in Memoir’44, either on here or in real life on a board.
You probably also have seen 4/4 hits on infantry or even 3/3 hits on tanks (hopefully for yourself)

The human mind tends to fear losses more than appropriate wins. So the losses weigh heavier on you than the wins do.

If you figure out a way to deal with the rolls, accept them without getting frustrated and just move in to the next turn with your new information, you will become a better Memoir’44 player.


On the old online adaption you got the dice statistics at the end of each game and could see wether you were close to hitting each dice face 16,6% of the time. One guy in there counter over ten thousand thrown dice and came up aces on the numbers on that site.
If you doubt the dice here on BGA you might want to try that also 😎


If you go to the FAQ page (https://boardgamearena.com/faq) and search for “dice”, you will find information on how BGA handles random events.
Dice stats about faces are also here on BGA.
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Jeronimon
Posts: 301
Joined: 11 June 2022, 11:34

Re: Random dice rolling????

Post by Jeronimon »

Tisaac wrote: 28 December 2022, 16:22Dice stats about faces are also here on BGA.
Yes they are! 8-)
And thanks for that.

But we, players migrating over from the online versions, still need to wrap our heads around dice numbers without automatic percentages added.
Give us time we might adapt. ;)
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Waikirikiri
Posts: 180
Joined: 25 November 2022, 03:19

Re: Random dice rolling????

Post by Waikirikiri »

I would like to see the other M44 online statistics added to the BGA version.

Not just the number of infantry, armour, grenade, star and flags rolled in a match, but also the number of hits for each unit type versus dice rolled.

One can roll the 2/6 infantry rolls and 1/6 grenades but hit infantry at higher or lower rate than that.

I've frequently hit armour at 1 in 8 or 1 in 9 rolls but over the 2 battles rolled 1/6 tanks and 1/6 grenades, rolling tanks on infantry and vice versa.

While we are on the subject of randomness the random selection of scenarios seems broken.
I seem to get a much smaller selection of scenarios than a truly random selection would be.
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MagnusNygaard
Posts: 181
Joined: 16 October 2022, 12:16

Re: Random dice rolling????

Post by MagnusNygaard »

Waikirikiri wrote: 29 December 2022, 08:24 (snip)
While we are on the subject of randomness the random selection of scenarios seems broken.
I seem to get a much smaller selection of scenarios than a truly random selection would be.
I've noticed that certain scenarios come in "waves" - i.e. they suddenly get selected a lot for a day or so and then disappear... And I just got my "1000 games played on BGA" badge so I'm starting to have some solid statistics to back up my sensation...
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Jeronimon
Posts: 301
Joined: 11 June 2022, 11:34

Re: Random dice rolling????

Post by Jeronimon »

MagnusNygaard wrote: 29 December 2022, 10:15
Waikirikiri wrote: 29 December 2022, 08:24 (snip)
While we are on the subject of randomness the random selection of scenarios seems broken.
I seem to get a much smaller selection of scenarios than a truly random selection would be.
I've noticed that certain scenarios come in "waves" - i.e. they suddenly get selected a lot for a day or so and then disappear... And I just got my "1000 games played on BGA" badge so I'm starting to have some solid statistics to back up my sensation...
Which kind of proves the randomness. The human mind tends to see patterns everywhere (oh no, Pegasus bridge again. Oh no! Another desert scenario) where true randomness would give one of us playing Memoir’44 Pegasus bridge a number of times consecutively a lot of times. This because of the volume of players. Where you see “waves” of scenarios or bad luck or good luck the artificial intelligence just gives you randomness.

All of these dice rolling we are blaming the AI for also happens in real life.

The best of this in Memoir’44 is when 10 people (overlord with spectators) are invested emotionally in that 1 reroll dice on that Tiger tank. 8-)
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SageClock
Posts: 8
Joined: 16 February 2017, 00:11

Re: Random dice rolling????

Post by SageClock »

Nah, it's pretty clearly random, and your unfortunate luck with dice rolls isn't reflective of everyone (certainly not reflective of my experience) and/or it'll balance out for you, on average, if you play enough games.

I have a video game I developed a long time ago where you draw numbered hex tiles and place them on the board, capturing neigboring tiles of a lower number.

The way I handled drawing for that game, is I determined how many hexes were on that map, divided it by 2, drew a random set of numbered tiles, copied it, and then gave one set to each player as their own personal deck, which they would draw from randomly over the course of the game. So each player would draw the exact same numbers over the course of the game, just at different times.

Now could one theoretically draw them in a more opportunistic random order than the other player? Sure. But what was the most common complaint I got about the game? "This game isn't random! It's impossible to win! The computer player always draws more higher tiles than me!" Even though the way I designed it, it was impossible, and I tested it enough to verify it was impossible.

Also the A.I. at the default level was pretty much a cake walk, it just made a random choice of any potential move where it could score more than like, 3 points, I think it was, and I beat it almost every time. The hard A.I. would actually try to score the most points, and the medium A.I. would always try to score the second most points. But I could see a new player losing to it a couple times, just announcing "this game is impossible!" and never playing it again.

Humans are just bad at understanding randomness. Even my Dad, who played online poker obsessively for years and saw millions of hands, can calculate the percentages for just about any hand/community card combination out there, would periodically complain about randomness when he would get beat by something that had astronomically low odds ("That only has a 1% chance of happening and he got it! it's happening way too often! should only happen 1% of the time, has to be happening like 10% of the time!").

There are ways to rig randomness, or different ways to approach randomness. I've certainly attempted a bunch of ways of drawing those tiles while trying to "fix" that perception I kept getting, including adding rubberbanding to artificially add numbers to your tile draw if you were enough behind on your score to help players catch up, or drawing on a bell curve, so middle numbers were statistically more likely to be drawn. But just generating random numbers and using those is by far the easiest to code, and there's no benefit I can see in Memoir '44 to try to rig that at all.
Last edited by SageClock on 07 January 2023, 21:34, edited 1 time in total.
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ripted pizzaz
Posts: 28
Joined: 02 February 2017, 06:20

Re: Random dice rolling????

Post by ripted pizzaz »

I think this common complaint comes from several sources..
1) Humans are pattern-recognition machines. We see cities in clouds, a face in the moon, Jesus on a tortilla. Our brains complete patterns that don't exist. Humans think a pattern (ie missing an attack) when it doesn't exist.
2) Humans are bad at true probability. Good party trick: Have three friends write down Heads or Tails on a strip of paper, 30 times. Leave the room and have them flip a coin 30 times and write down the results on a strip of paper. You can always guess the sequence that is truly random compared to the one your friends wrote down. How? It will have the longest string of consecutive heads or tails. People think 'random' is more 'random' than it is and won't write down 5 heads in a row, even though it's pretty common.
3) New Mem44 players may not understand that there's two Infantry faces on a die.
4) New Mem44 players may not understand that trying to kill a sandbagged Artillery is very very hard.
5) New Mem44 players don't know how to use blocked retreats to effectively use flags.

This is the Mem44 dice results of the OP. Looks pretty well distributed to me!
Screenshot 2023-01-07 at 7.37.10 AM.png
Screenshot 2023-01-07 at 7.37.10 AM.png (92.55 KiB) Viewed 435 times
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