Rigged rolls!?

[Broski Armz]

Table #348509963
Players: bea84, Kottr

I couldn't believe it. All game, out of around 60 rolls, only TWO eights were rolled (2 or 3%, which is statistically highly improbable). Just so happened that I was playing some low ELO players and that I really needed the 8 that game...

But this was the catch. Post game, I checked the game statistics, and they're showing eight was rolled nine times, which is false! I beg someone please check the game log and game statistics yourself and tell me if i'm going crazy:

Game statistics link: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=348509963
Game logs link: https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=348509963

This tells me something is wrong here...

[Tisaac]

Table #348509963
Players: bea84, Kottr

I couldn't believe it. All game, out of around 60 rolls, only TWO eights were rolled (2 or 3%, which is statistically highly improbable). Just so happened that I was playing some low ELO players and that I really needed the 8 that game...

But this was the catch. Post game, I checked the game statistics, and they're showing eight was rolled nine times, which is false! I beg someone please check the game log and game statistics yourself and tell me if i'm going crazy:

Game statistics link: https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=348509963
Game logs link: https://boardgamearena.com/gamereview?table=348509963

This tells me something is wrong here...

Nope, you are reading the stats incorrectly, it's the percentage of 8 that is displayed. You had around 9% of throw that were an 8, which correspond to 4 throw out of the 46 rolls, which is low but not incredibly low either.
I checked the log and I can see 4 throws resulting in a 8 indeed, so nothing wrong here.

[Jellby]

So, "around 60 rolls" is 46, and "TWO" is 4... and people still trust the human mind?

If I did it right, the probability of 4 or fewer rolls of 8 in 46 total rolls is 21.6%, more than one fifth of the games is expected to be "rigged"

(If it were actually 2 of 60 rolls, the probability would be 0.7%, or one in 140 games, still not incredibly low.)

[twolegman]

This game is rated as being 3/4 being up to luck. I would say that is a bit of a low rating. Additionally, once the skill of the players rises a bit, the interaction aspect drops significantly because people stop trading. So the 4/4 rating for interaction, should be a 2/4 and the luck rating should be a 4/4 because when the game rolls 8 times in a row and that gives a particular player enough resources to build two new settlements ahead of everyone else... well it's game over no matter where the robber is placed, who plays the monopoly card or who trades with whom.

[ChuckG68]

Per your title - that doesn't sound like "Rigged Rolls" but what does is the constant jacked up algorithm totally focusing on just 678. It gets really old being on 7 of 12 #s and collecting a card every 5th turn or being on 6 or 8 only getting that resource until you're total cards is 8+ then of course the 7 comes.

It's so NOT like playing the board game because you can literally predict who is going to benefit most from the die rolls once all initial settlements are set. It's stupid, but everyone seems to think there's no problem blah blah blah.

[Tisaac]

Per your title - that doesn't sound like "Rigged Rolls" but what does is the constant jacked up algorithm totally focusing on just 678. It gets really old being on 7 of 12 #s and collecting a card every 5th turn or being on 6 or 8 only getting that resource until you're total cards is 8+ then of course the 7 comes.

It's so NOT like playing the board game because you can literally predict who is going to benefit most from the die rolls once all initial settlements are set. It's stupid, but everyone seems to think there's no problem blah blah blah.

Please dont hijack the post. The OP asked a question about a specific game with DATA to look at, which you dont give to support your claim. And as you can see in this analysis, it's once again the humain brain being biased and bad at random that is thé explanation so if you want to prove it's not just in your head, you will need to collect sole data.

[ChuckG68]

Per your title - that doesn't sound like "Rigged Rolls" but what does is the constant jacked up algorithm totally focusing on just 678. It gets really old being on 7 of 12 #s and collecting a card every 5th turn or being on 6 or 8 only getting that resource until you're total cards is 8+ then of course the 7 comes.

It's so NOT like playing the board game because you can literally predict who is going to benefit most from the die rolls once all initial settlements are set. It's stupid, but everyone seems to think there's no problem blah blah blah.

Please dont hijack the post. The OP asked a question about a specific game with DATA to look at, which you dont give to support your claim. And as you can see if this analysis, it's once again the humain brain being biased and bad at random that is thé explanation so if you want to prove it's not just in your head, you will need to collect sole data.

You're right that it was/is a minor hijack, so for that I apologize. It's not the human brain with regards to random, the issue I spoke to is repetitive ...different word....not random.

[swetytooth]

Nothing random about a human generated algorithm. We pay for the entertainment, not the competition. Designed that way because it makes more money. Nothing wrong with that.

[swetytooth]

I had a recent game where 3’s and 4’s were rolled 26 times. 8’s were rolled 28 times. The beginner who put both their pieces on 8-4-3 killed us. It got so bad that they wouldn't rob from us to be nice. If they weren’t a premium member before that game they probably were after.

[twolegman]

There's just so much that is dependent on luck in this game. If someone puts the robber on your 8, and then an 8 is rolled, that's exactly what your opponents need. Alternatively, you put a robber on their 6, and a 6 doesn't roll the whole time the robber is there, and then they move it and a 6's are rolled, what is that. How about the times when 11's and 3's are rolled several times in a row? Or even the game when a 6 rolled 4 times in a row and then again several times in a row. Sometimes, other players think you're their enemy and gang up on you and keep placing the robber on your key tiles. Strategy such as blocking, robber placement, trading and settlement placement only go so far. The luck element makes this game simpler and easier to play for beginners.