Terrible Backgammon Dice Algorithm

[boardteacher]

Please consider getting a better dice program for backgammon. The game has become almost unplayable. When there are 10+ doubles rolled in a game it is just ridiculous. There is NEVER that many doubles in real life. And it seems the doubles just love to roll out once all of your players are in the home base. An opponent just rolled a double 5, double 4, then double 6 to seal the game. Unheard of in real play. It has made the game totally luck dependent.

[Tisaac]

Please consider getting a better dice program for backgammon. The game has become almost unplayable. When there are 10+ doubles rolled in a game it is just ridiculous. There is NEVER that many doubles in real life. And it seems the doubles just love to roll out once all of your players are in the home base. An opponent just rolled a double 5, double 4, then double 6 to seal the game. Unheard of in real play. It has made the game totally luck dependent.

Lol, that's a good one.

[Meeplelowda]

When there are 10+ doubles rolled in a game it is just ridiculous. There is NEVER that many doubles in real life.

Code: Select all

Monte Carlo 2001 Final
 Game 2
 Jorgen Granstedt : 2            Thomas Holm : 0
  1) 45: 13/8 24/20              33: 8/5* 8/5 6/3 6/3
  2) 53:                          Doubles => 2
  3)  Takes                      62: 24/18 13/11
  4) 33:                         31: 13/10 11/10
  5) 63:                         44: 13/9 10/6 6/2 6/2
  6) 64: 25/21 21/15*            54: 25/20 24/20
  7) 55: 13/8 13/8 8/3 8/3       22: 18/16 8/6 3/1* 3/1
  8) 11:                         64: 16/10* 13/9
  9) 41: 25/21                   51: 9/4* 9/8
 10) 22:                         51: 8/3 4/3
 11) 44: 25/21 25/21 6/2 6/2     51: 10/5 6/5
 12) 64: 8/2 8/4                 51: 13/8 8/7
 13) 53: 21/16 21/18*            63:
 14) 32: 16/13 6/4               52: 25/20 5/3
 15) 44: 18/14 13/9 13/9 13/9    53: 20/15 15/12
 16) 43: 14/10 10/7              22: 20/18* 20/18 12/10 10/8
 17) 64: 25/21 21/15             61: 8/2 5/4
 18) 63: 15/9 9/6                64: 18/12 18/14
 19) 66: 9/3 9/3 9/3 8/2         65: 12/6 14/9
 20) 53: 8/3 3/0                 65: 9/4 6/0
 21) 63: 6/0 3/0                 65: 6/0 5/0
 22) 52: 6/1 2/0                 31: 3/0 1/0
 23) 53: 6/1 3/0                 41: 4/0 1/0
 24) 63: 4/0 3/0                 51: 5/0 2/1
 25)  Doubles => 4                Takes
 26) 51: 4/0 1/0                 53: 6/1 3/0
 27) 33: 3/0 3/0 2/0 2/0
      Wins 4 points

12 doubles rolled in an over-the-board tournament.

Code: Select all

 Game 6
 Jorgen Granstedt : 8            Thomas Holm : 2
  1)                             62: 24/18 13/11
  2) 21: 13/11 8/7*              66:
  3) 54: 6/1* 24/20              62: 25/23
  4) 42: 20/16 16/14*            21: 25/23 25/24*
  5) 65: 25/20 13/7              51: 13/8 6/5*
  6) 55: 25/20* 20/15 15/10 14/9 63: 25/22 22/16*
  7) 44: 25/21 13/9* 8/4 8/4     32: 25/22 6/4*
  8)  Doubles => 2                Takes
  9) 42: 25/21* 11/9             51: 25/20 23/22
 10) 64: 21/15 6/2*              43: 25/22 24/20
 11) 11: 15/14 14/13 9/8 9/8     64: 22/16 13/9
 12) 62: 24/18 18/16*            54: 25/20 13/9*
 13) 53: 25/20 13/10             63: 20/14 16/13
 14) 51: 20/15 15/14             33: 14/11* 11/8 8/5 8/5
 15) 43: 25/21 21/18             41: 13/9 8/7*
 16) 33: 25/22 13/10 13/10 10/7  52: 13/8 7/5
 17) 65: 10/4 7/2                62: 22/16 22/20
 18) 53: 6/1 4/1                 41: 8/4 5/4
 19) 62: 10/4 10/8               66: 9/3* 9/3 8/2 8/2
 20) 61: 25/24 24/18             52: 6/1 3/1
 21) 63: 18/12 12/9*             33: 25/22 6/3 6/3 5/2
 22) 63: 8/2 9/6                 21: 22/20 2/1
 23) 53: 6/1 4/1                 64: 20/14 20/16
 24) 63: 7/1 7/4                 31: 14/11 16/15
 25) 62: 8/2 8/6                 61: 15/9 9/8
 26) 43: 4/0 6/3                 22: 20/18 18/16 16/14 8/6
 27) 61: 6/0 3/2                 51: 11/6 20/19*
 28) 51: 25/20* 2/1              65: 25/20 19/13
 29) 42: 20/16 16/14             44: 14/10 13/9 10/6 9/5
 30) 65: 14/8 8/3                31: 20/17 6/5
 31) 65: 4/0 4/0                 61: 17/11 6/5
 32) 65: 3/0 2/0                 21: 6/4 11/10
 33) 42: 2/0 2/0                 44: 10/6 4/0 4/0 4/0
 34) 52: 2/0 1/0                 66: 6/0 5/0 5/0 5/0
 35) 64: 1/0 1/0                 52: 3/0 2/0
 36) 11: 1/0 1/0 1/0
      Wins 2 points

13 doubles rolled later in the same tournament.

And this wasn't cherry picked. This was literally the first tournament archive I looked at.

[Meeplelowda]

Lol, that's a good one.

I violated my self-ban from threads like this, mainly because I wanted to see how you responded. But this was just too easy to refute.

[Tisaac]

Lol, that's a good one.

I violated my self-ban from threads like this, mainly because I wanted to see how you responded. But this was just too easy to refute.

My answer depends on my mood. This one was just too big for being serious.

[Gulchen]

You apparently played some games in the meantime, so the answer was different closer to when you posted, but:


As of this post, your most recent Backgammon game had 50 rolls. ​ With that many rolls,

Code: Select all

Python 3.8.0 (default, Oct 28 2019, 16:14:01) 
[GCC 8.3.0] on linux
Type "help", "copyright", "credits" or "license" for more information.
>>> from math import comb
>>> probofdoubles = [comb(50,doubles)*(5**(50-doubles)) for doubles in range(1+50)]
>>> 8*probofdoubles[10] < 6**50 < 9*probofdoubles[10]
True
>>> 3*sum(probofdoubles[10:]) < 6**50 < 4*sum(probofdoubles[10:])
True
>>> 

the probability of ​ exactly 10 doubles ​ is between 1/8 and 1/9
and
the probability of ​ at least 10 doubles ​ is between 1/3 and 1/4

.



(I'm using a code-block this time instead of a paste.ee link, since due to I-forget-who's
comment in some other thread, I know know that BGA offers code blocks.)

[ufm]

Most of these conspiracy guys just don't want to get the short end of the stick.
Sound logic cannot persuade people with such an attitude.

It has made the game totally luck dependent.

Single game backgammon is luck-dependent. What did you expect?

[Kayvon]

Here's an analysis of half a million random numbers generated by BGA:
https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewto ... and#p59122