Agricola Statistics Update: games ending Dec '22 - Jul '23

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biwebof
Posts: 23
Joined: 04 July 2023, 22:27

Re: Agricola Statistics Update: games ending Dec '22 - Jul '23

Post by biwebof »

Glad to see Education Bonus getting the #2 spot in 500+ games, it's such a great card!
I think part of the skill in Agricola is learning when to NOT maximize your cards.
I remember when I was less experienced with the game, I would try to go for a big education bonus, avoiding taking occs, grabbing the fireplace, and meeting place a few times to try to get 4 or 5 or 6 rewards.
This leads to awkward sequences.

It turns out that the best bonuses are the 5th and 6th one. Playing your early game occs, and playing an education bonus late for just these two rewards is still great value!

For example, with 4 occs in play, take SP early in round 12, playing education bonus on it, then take lessons later in the round to grab a vegatable.
On round 13, open plow/sow, planting the new vegetable. At this point in the game, farmland is hotly contested, and you'll be able to get one while playing a scoring occ.

I admit that a similar round 12 play is possible with wheel plow, but education bonus has the notable upside of not costing wood (you might need it for fencing), and also has the potential to be played for more value earlier if the card plays line up.
biwebof
Posts: 23
Joined: 04 July 2023, 22:27

Re: Agricola Statistics Update: games ending Dec '22 - Jul '23

Post by biwebof »

I'd appreciate if some good players could share their insights.
I think the difference between a good player like me and a great player like Lumin is that I can draft good cards and execute a static gameplan, while a great player can draft synergistic cards and execute a gameplan based on their cards.

For me, Agricola is slightly boring, because my gameplan is pretty much the same every game: build early wood room, fight for growth. Maybe build another wood room, depending on how much wood injection is in the game, and if it looks like fencing will be a problem later.

I've seen Lumin pull off things like early farming, big mandoline, and 2 room lover, and how he makes it work is beyond me.

I tend to draft high PWR cards, which tend to be those that assist with wood and plowing.

The "draft archetypes" I've loosely identified are as follows:

Day Labourer: This one is the only one I've made work. Some day labourer cards (looking at you, hardware store) are so powerful that it's worth playing on its own, and the DL cards in general provide a huge benefit to an otherwise terrible space to make it okay, so two benefits makes for an amazing space! I find that with DL strategies, it's often worth building to 4, so you can contest the rest of the board and use DL, and many of your cards inject resources.

Grain Seeds: This is a similar terrible space that has cards that make it much better. I think among them, only Field Watchman, Private Teacher, maybe Swagman are playable on their own. These cards tend to not get passed in draft, so if they aren't my opening pick, I end up not going grain seeds. For example, a lonely Greengrocer IMO is quite terrible, playing a Greengrocer and a grain seeds action is 2 actions for a grain and a vegetable, and I'd much rather playing another card that provides grain and taking the Vegatable seeds action once manually if need be.

Clay Rooms: I think this has potential if you get multiple ones, especially if it includes a powerful one like Clay Supports. However, I've found them too rare to get a critical mass of them. Even with Clay Supports in hand, upon seeing R5 growth flip, I've found myself just building first wood, taking first growth, and leaving the powerful minor unplayed.
I think the problem with something like a lonely Rustic is this:
- you need to reno before building (without a helpful minor, this can be as late as round 7!)
- you need 7 clay (nontrivial to get early, especially if other people are grabbing clay for cookeries)
- you need 3 reed
- if you're renoing, you probably want to play an improvement, which might cost more clay, or force you to go get stone as well
- you need to then spend an action playing rustic before building.

To me, all of this seems like a recipe of getting 5th growth (that is, another person grows twice before you do) and last place. The payoff just doesn't seem worth it.

Stone: I think this has a similar critical mass issue. The way I see it, you have two choices:
A. Renovate to stone on 2 rooms.
This means you will be stuck on 2 actions for a lot of the game (5 stone for a room is hard to get!), and I think that sucks because the marginal value of the 3rd action is significant. Ideally your occs are strong enough to make up for this (Scholar is kind of like a lessons action), but using Scholar as an example:
- Renoing to 2 stone and playing scholar might take more time than building a 3rd wood and growing.
- You'll eventually run out of good cards to play.
- You're leaving a lot more for your opponents on the board.
B. Build to 3, then reno to stone.
I think the issue of this is that this takes a long time to do. Many of the stone occs provide value over time, and with the exception of Plow Driver, I don't think there is enough time to get the payoff.

Early Farming:
To farm early without cards, you need to spend an action on farmland, an action on grain seeds, and an action on grain utilization. The "payoff" is that your grain utilization action gets you TWO grain seeds for the price of one action, at the cost of taking up your field until stage 4. This sets you way behind on the growth queue.
I'm not saying that this is what a farming strategy involves, but I'm trying to give a picture of how bad it is without card support. I think the card support has to be very good (young farmer gets you a grain and a sow action) to make up for it. Even with an opener like cultivator/cesspit, I often find myself letting the fields sit idle while I fight for growth. (You could say I use it as a setup for a growth strategy, the trickle of clay and boar solving the food problem growth strats have.)
However, I know that better players than I can and have made sowing strategies work. What are your secrets?
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msclark
Posts: 58
Joined: 06 February 2017, 23:47

Re: Agricola Statistics Update: games ending Dec '22 - Jul '23

Post by msclark »

biwebof wrote: 14 July 2023, 02:14 In 2 player games, the first player wins 49.8% of the time, and the second player wins 51.0% of the time.

Agricola is such a great game that there is a winner in 100.8% of games!
Presumably that's because there are a handful of ties for first.
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Ranior
Posts: 222
Joined: 30 September 2011, 19:39

Re: Agricola Statistics Update: games ending Dec '22 - Jul '23

Post by Ranior »

biwebof wrote: 14 July 2023, 03:10 I'd appreciate if some good players could share their insights.
I think the difference between a good player like me and a great player like Lumin is that I can draft good cards and execute a static gameplan, while a great player can draft synergistic cards and execute a gameplan based on their cards.

For me, Agricola is slightly boring, because my gameplan is pretty much the same every game: build early wood room, fight for growth. Maybe build another wood room, depending on how much wood injection is in the game, and if it looks like fencing will be a problem later.

I've seen Lumin pull off things like early farming, big mandoline, and 2 room lover, and how he makes it work is beyond me.
I think you've hit on a kind of key part of the path from intermediate to expert player. In almost every game there is kind of a default strategy or way to win. The path from becoming an average player to good is to learn how to execute this kind of main strategy. In Agricola, that is learning how to build a wood room, grow, feed efficiently, and when to focus on building and growing more or focus on farming and scoring vp.

The path from a good player to an expert though is figuring out when you can break those rules. When you're able to renovate to clay and then build rooms, when you can ignore the fight for growth and do farming stuff, then grow later, know when to sneak in some other cards, how to leverage certain things, etc.

Getting there isn't easy, and it's a bit paradoxical: to get better, you have to be willing to lose elo and play "worse" in the short run. The way to learn these things is to push your boundaries and comfort zones and try to make things work. You will fail. That is fine. As you play more niche cards and strategies, you'll pick up on what is and what isn't working, and why. These insights are gained, and over time you can begin to apply them and find yourself as a stronger player than you were before. The path then is to not care so much about rating for the short term, and just go experiment. Try to pull off some stuff you haven't before, commit your game to trying to make a certain card work.

I tend to draft high PWR cards, which tend to be those that assist with wood and plowing.

The "draft archetypes" I've loosely identified are as follows:
I don't really jive with the framework you've laid out, but if that's how you like to think about it, that's fine. Overall you've hit upon some of the more obvious combos that the base game in particular spoon feeds players, but combos in Agricola are a lot more nuanced than that. Furthermore you don't even really need to have cards that say or do exactly the same thing for them to be very synergistic. As long as you have cards that help you eke out more efficiency than just taking actions on the board you can put together a strong gameplan, even if you don't build some button on Grain Seeds.

As you correctly identify, most of these combos aren't that good anyhow. They tend to rely on one or two key cards being worthwhile, and then adding on to that can work. But if you try to make your game around Manservant and Groom, or Cattle Feeder and Seed Seller, you'll find yourself losing a lot.

As such, I think you're correct to mostly approach drafts with taking strong flexible cards early, and then build around those. If you happen to start with Assistant Tiller, then by all means take more Day Laborer cards. But generally don't first pick something like Water Worker hoping you're going to find some big day laborer combo that will let you win. In particular you want to try to figure out what the cards in the draft mean for the texture of the game--is there a lot of wood? Plows? Food? etc. Trying to understand what the draft and game will then be rick or poor in helps in what cards and strategies in the game you should be pursuing. Knowing what cards are likely going to come back to you in the draft is also important, as you can sometimes pick a card expecting another to come back and set yourself up for a strong synergy (or block it from someone else, although in 4p games I hesitate to commit too much draft capital to blocking others).
Early Farming:
To farm early without cards, you need to spend an action on farmland, an action on grain seeds, and an action on grain utilization. The "payoff" is that your grain utilization action gets you TWO grain seeds for the price of one action, at the cost of taking up your field until stage 4. This sets you way behind on the growth queue.
I'm not saying that this is what a farming strategy involves, but I'm trying to give a picture of how bad it is without card support. I think the card support has to be very good (young farmer gets you a grain and a sow action) to make up for it. Even with an opener like cultivator/cesspit, I often find myself letting the fields sit idle while I fight for growth. (You could say I use it as a setup for a growth strategy, the trickle of clay and boar solving the food problem growth strats have.)
However, I know that better players than I can and have made sowing strategies work. What are your secrets?
I think early sowing games are relatively rare, and not too worth focusing on. You're correct though that many games you can set up strong payoffs while not caring solely about fighting for growth, and instead you aim to just build your room and grow when it becomes your turn. These strategies particularly pay off in late growth games when getting a head start on farming things is useful when everyone is so grow constrained.

You are correct that to make early sowing strategies work you need quite a bit of support, because otherwise it eats up far too many actions. For that reason, personally, I tend to prefer early fencing/breeding strategies as a way to get ahead on food and farming, since there are more games you can get away with worrying about setting up breeding early.

You also don't even all that often need to breed or sow early to set up your game though. Just getting key strong cards out and find yourself creating efficiencies later can be good. I mostly find myself fighting to grow first when my hand doesn't have anything else to pursue, otherwise it is nice to get some key cards down. (With a caution on not being too care free, you still need to be ready to build and grow pretty quickly, you can't let others grow too fast or you'll lose. For example it is fine to grow 4th if you have compensation, but it's a lot harder to win if you're growing like 5th and someone else got to grow 1st and 3rd overall because you werne't careful).

One of the other main reasons I advice not to worry too much about early sow games is that grain is kind of annoying as a food source, because not only does it take a lot of actions to get in the ground and multiplying, but you then have to find ways to bake it. Needing to take an action to bake sucks, so on top of needing cards that help produce grain/fields/sow actions to make early sow games work, you also need to find extra bake actions. It is hard to find early vegetable cards, but sowing those early can work a little better since they are a little easier to turn in to food (since a hearth also lets you eat animals, so you're not entirely reliant on just the vegetables to feed).

Anyhow, I guess my main advice then is to just keep exploring the game and trying things. Also if you're not aware, players like Lumin do have a youtube and twitch channel where they stream some of their games (I also do). You may find those videos useful learning tools to see what experts are thinking/seeing during a draft and during the game, and how they execute their gameplans.

Agricola is a very hard game to learn how to be an expert, but well worth the effort. If you get great at Agricola, you'll generally become better at most games, because there are so many lessons in Agricola between strategy, tempo, tactics, drafting, predicting/prioritizing, etc.
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torvaldur_makan
Posts: 79
Joined: 19 January 2021, 21:34

Re: Agricola Statistics Update: games ending Dec '22 - Jul '23

Post by torvaldur_makan »

Great summary Lumin!


Now, I nominate the following cards for banlist:

464 Wool Blankets
465 Full Peasant
466 Corn Schnapps Distillery
467 Building Expert
468 Pioneering Spirit
469 Building Tycoon
470 Trellises
471 Stagehand
472 Silokeeper
473 Riverine Shepherd
474 Claw Knife
475 Turnip Farmer
476 Brotherly Love
477 Riparian Builder
478 Garden Claw
479 Roughcaster
480 Dutch Windmill
481 Sculpture
482 Wood Worker
483 Elephantgrass Plant
484 Reed Roof Renovator
485 Tree Inspector
486 Canal Boatman
487 Minstrel
488 Dwelling Mound
489 Abort Oriel
490 Paymaster
491 Growing Farm
492 Facades Carving
493 Social Benefits
494 Huntsman
495 Wealthy Man
496 Loudmouth
497 Small Animal Breeder
498 Cooperative Plower
499 Forest Scientist
500 Perennial Rye
501 Sequestrator
502 Sugar Baker
503 Catcher
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watershipdown
Posts: 17
Joined: 07 October 2014, 07:01

Re: Agricola Statistics Update: games ending Dec '22 - Jul '23

Post by watershipdown »

I remember that time when I played wool blankets, what a rush!
torvaldur_makan wrote: 17 July 2023, 10:24 Great summary Lumin!


Now, I nominate the following cards for banlist:

464 Wool Blankets
465 Full Peasant
466 Corn Schnapps Distillery
467 Building Expert
468 Pioneering Spirit
469 Building Tycoon
470 Trellises
471 Stagehand
472 Silokeeper
473 Riverine Shepherd
474 Claw Knife
475 Turnip Farmer
476 Brotherly Love
477 Riparian Builder
478 Garden Claw
479 Roughcaster
480 Dutch Windmill
481 Sculpture
482 Wood Worker
483 Elephantgrass Plant
484 Reed Roof Renovator
485 Tree Inspector
486 Canal Boatman
487 Minstrel
488 Dwelling Mound
489 Abort Oriel
490 Paymaster
491 Growing Farm
492 Facades Carving
493 Social Benefits
494 Huntsman
495 Wealthy Man
496 Loudmouth
497 Small Animal Breeder
498 Cooperative Plower
499 Forest Scientist
500 Perennial Rye
501 Sequestrator
502 Sugar Baker
503 Catcher
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poltorgeist
Posts: 14
Joined: 20 July 2022, 18:12

Re: Agricola Statistics Update: games ending Dec '22 - Jul '23

Post by poltorgeist »

torvaldur_makan wrote: 17 July 2023, 10:24 Great summary Lumin!


Now, I nominate the following cards for banlist:

...
I don't often play with the new cards. Out of the cards I am familiar with, I would not agree with these bans. They are all for "weak" cards: Wool Blankets, Building Tycoon, Roughcaster, Dutch Windmill, Sculpture, Reed Roof Renovator (not so weak in 3-player), Dwelling Mound, Sugar Baker. Even if these cards rarely "work," I can imagine a use for all of them. Many of them can prop up unusual strategies or be used late-game as a fallback. I'm already tired of seeing so many winning farms with 5-6 stone rooms.

Additionally, removing these cards would make Patron, Tutor, Lantern House, Bookshelf, Bookcase, Writing Desk, Bread Paddle, Furniture Maker, and Education Bonus (already strong to extremely strong cards) better.

Agricola should not always be about playing all 14 cards in your hand. It is, and should be, a worker placement game as well as a card game.

When it comes to strength, I think the key question is: Is Childless bannable? We have all seen that card used a lot by now. I would say probably not (I recently won a game with Childless unplayed). Then a bannably powerful card would have to be measurably stronger than Childless. Although a card could be bannable for being game-warping or annoying as well.

If I could edit cards, I would tweak many of them (both strong and weak). But when it comes to banning, I think the base deck + CD is in a good place right now. I don't know about the new cards.
QxN
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Joined: 17 June 2021, 18:23

Re: Agricola Statistics Update: games ending Dec '22 - Jul '23

Post by QxN »

Lumin_S wrote: 13 July 2023, 23:15 4-player with banlist, Experts (n=6351 players)
Are there actually that many Expert players or is that a count of how many times an "Expert" played a game?
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Lumin_S
Posts: 165
Joined: 09 October 2018, 00:51

Re: Agricola Statistics Update: games ending Dec '22 - Jul '23

Post by Lumin_S »

QxN wrote: 04 August 2023, 01:10
Lumin_S wrote: 13 July 2023, 23:15 4-player with banlist, Experts (n=6351 players)
Are there actually that many Expert players or is that a count of how many times an "Expert" played a game?
2nd option. How many times a player ended with 500+ Elo, across all games in the timeframe where all players ended with 200+ Elo.
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bellzet1
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Joined: 21 December 2021, 19:24

Re: Agricola Statistics Update: games ending Dec '22 - Jul '23

Post by bellzet1 »

I really enjoying this article, and really wanna get new cards statistics of nowadays environment
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