ZERO fives two games in a row

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Edified Ed
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Joined: 19 December 2020, 18:35

ZERO fives two games in a row

Post by Edified Ed »

I lost two tournament games in a row this week largely because five never rolled in either. The odds against that are pretty extreme - anyway else seeing similar behavior?
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GTSchemer
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Re: ZERO fives two games in a row

Post by GTSchemer »

*edit* I looked at the endgame stat screens, but I didn't understand how it was reporting percentages. Sorry about that!
Last edited by GTSchemer on 31 August 2023, 20:57, edited 1 time in total.
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Jellby
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Re: ZERO fives two games in a row

Post by Jellby »

The first one was abandoned early, there were only 11 rolls.

The other two were apparently completed, with 55 and 44 rolls, respectively.
even averaging the roughly 300 rolls together
Common mistake. Those numbers are not total rolls, they're percentages. To see the total rolls you have to add the rolls of each player in the table below.
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GTSchemer
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Re: ZERO fives two games in a row

Post by GTSchemer »

Jellby wrote: 31 August 2023, 20:48 The first one was abandoned early, there were only 11 rolls.

The other two were apparently completed, with 55 and 44 rolls, respectively.
even averaging the roughly 300 rolls together
Common mistake. Those numbers are not total rolls, they're percentages. To see the total rolls you have to add the rolls of each player in the table below.
Thanks, I'll edit my post.


*edit* Using a chi-square statistics test on the two games where 5 weren't rolled, the distribution looks reasonable. It's unlucky but possible for 5 not to get rolled.
Last edited by GTSchemer on 06 September 2023, 05:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Mathew5000
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Re: ZERO fives two games in a row

Post by Mathew5000 »

GTSchemer wrote: 31 August 2023, 20:22 *edit* I looked at the endgame stat screens, but I didn't understand how it was reporting percentages. Sorry about that!
Here's a proposal I made to rectify this issue: https://boardgamearena.com/bug?id=72332

I really wish that the developers would at the very least insert the % symbol beside percentages.
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GTSchemer
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Re: ZERO fives two games in a row

Post by GTSchemer »

Mathew5000 wrote: 06 September 2023, 02:57
GTSchemer wrote: 31 August 2023, 20:22 *edit* I looked at the endgame stat screens, but I didn't understand how it was reporting percentages. Sorry about that!
Here's a proposal I made to rectify this issue: https://boardgamearena.com/bug?id=72332

I really wish that the developers would at the very least insert the % symbol beside percentages.
For reference, are there any other games that use % besides endgame stats? I can't remember any, and I am wondering if it is possible in the BGA framework.
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Meeplelowda
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Re: ZERO fives two games in a row

Post by Meeplelowda »

GTSchemer wrote: 31 August 2023, 20:56Using a chi-square statistics test on the two games
It's refreshing to see someone actually apply any kind of statistical analysis in one of these riggy threads.
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lolopunzel
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Re: ZERO fives two games in a row

Post by lolopunzel »

Edified Ed wrote: 31 August 2023, 18:43 I lost two tournament games in a row this week largely because five never rolled in either. The odds against that are pretty extreme - anyway else seeing similar behavior?
This game is just like that you always cross fingers when your numbers never roll in this🤬game
Stroom
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Re: ZERO fives two games in a row

Post by Stroom »

lolopunzel wrote: 09 September 2023, 17:37 This game is just like that you always cross fingers when your numbers never roll in this🤬game
Catan is a game based on high randomness. If you don't like it, play any other game. BGA has hundreds of games to offer.
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embattled llama
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Re: ZERO fives two games in a row

Post by embattled llama »

I recently played a game with a very low number of sixes thrown and won as 23 4s were thrown and I was on 4s. Next game I thought that can't happen again so placed two settlements on sixes. Three sixes thrown all game. I did OK but not sure how as I received considerably fewer resources than both other players (probably battering them with the knight to be fair!)
Can anyone recommend a diceless game of a Catan nature, (or a game where you collaborate rather than compete?)
Love Catan, loathe the dice!
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