Is there ever a good reason not to draw on your first two turns?

[Cos-]

I found that I always draw two cards on each of my first two turns. If there's something great in the clearing because someone else already played some cards, then I may take it; if not, I just draw two from the deck. Which led me to wonder, why do some people play cards on their first or second turn, instead of drawing? When does it make sense to do so?

[IFelici]

If you draw on your first two turns, you are at 10 cards in hand which puts you in a bit of a pickle if your opponent decides to play a tree and then a card you want flips. Once your hand is maxed, your turn is forced and less options is generally less good.

[RicardoRix]

I've played the game all of once. But it seemed best to keep your hand at the max of 10 to improve the chance of the odds of a bonus.

[Cos-]

If you draw on your first two turns, you are at 10 cards in hand which puts you in a bit of a pickle if your opponent decides to play a tree and then a card you want flips. Once your hand is maxed, your turn is forced and less options is generally less good.

What you seem to be saying is, if your hand is full, you might miss out on a randomly drawn card from the deck that might be good for you. But you have no way of predicting whether the next randomly drawn card from the deck is good for you, it's unexpected. So, why would you give up _two_ guaranteed draws from the deck on your previous turn, for the possibility that someone might have played a tree and the next card from the deck is one you want? Chances are, you'd actually have already gotten that very same card if you drew on that turn. It seems to me that by not drawing on turn 2, you're actually reducing your odds of getting a good card from the deck, not increasing them. Am I missing something?

[cigma]

It seems to me that by not drawing on turn 2, you're actually reducing your odds of getting a good card from the deck, not increasing them. Am I missing something?

Maybe this: Drawing from the deck will give you 2 random cards, drawing from the clearing lets you pick cards of your choice. Personally, I agree with IFelici that holding less than 10 cards is generally a good tactic.

But is it also a good strategy at the game start? This might be dependend on the player order. Let's say you play a 2 player game and you go first.
- You draw 2 cards.
- Your opponent draws 2 cards.
- You either draw 2 cards again and are blocked, if your opponent plays a tree and a good card shows up. Or you play a tree card and give your opponent the chance to pick from the clearing. This looks like a first player disadvantage to me. Given these choices I might prefer to draw again.

As the second player I think it is better to play a tree on your second turn, because the first player will have to play a tree next, if their hand is full, and you have the chance to pick out of several cards (from playing your and their tree) in your next turn.

Which let's me rethink the choice of the first player on their second turn. Maybe it's better to play a tree than draw another 2 cards. I will check this!

I never thought about this in such a detail before, so thank you for asking this question!

[Cos-]

You make a good point: If my opponent has 10 cards, then by playing a tree now I get a sort of "lookahead" into the deck. I get to see what the next couple of cards from the deck are, and choose to either draw them or effectively "skip" them to draw further ahead in the deck. So in that situation, I'm increasing my odds of getting cards I want from the deck, by delaying my draw by one turn.

This also leads to another conclusion that applies during most of the game, not just the start. And for games with more plays.

If there's any time when all other plays have 10 cards in their hand, and the clearing has more "empty" slots (10-cleaning_size) than 3x the number of other players, then this is a very good time to play a card that costs 2 **if** my hand is full of cards I want, and I've been delaying playing 2-cost cards because I can't pick two cards I want to lose. In this situation, I can play that 2-cost card, knowing that on my next turn I'll be able to draw the two cards I paid, back from the clearing.

empty slots > 3x number of other players means:

2-player game: Clearing has fewer than 7
3-player game: Clearing has fewer than 4
4-player game: Clearing is empty

This doesn't always work near the end of the game if you're a bit behind and trying to avoid more winter cards being drawn, or if you're ahead and your goal is to draw the last winter card, but if you're not at that stage yet, I think this is always a good tactic for when you're "stuck" with a hand full of great cards you don't want to give up.

[ArcticLancer]

The very short answer here is that if I have a card worth playing when I have 8 cards in hand, I probably don't need to draw and force myself to be at 10. I really only draw up to 10 if I have no good options or am fishing for a powerful bonus effect. What has already been discussed about how a player who is not at maximum hand size has an advantage is effectively what you're playing around.

[Cos-]

The very short answer here is that if I have a card worth playing when I have 8 cards in hand, I probably don't need to draw and force myself to be at 10. I really only draw up to 10 if I have no good options or am fishing for a powerful bonus effect. What has already been discussed about how a player who is not at maximum hand size has an advantage is effectively what you're playing around.

If you're talking about the rest of the game - not just the beginning - I think another reason to draw when you have 8 even when you do have a good option to play, is if you don't want to pay (send to clearing) any of the cards you currently have in your hand. Either they're all cards you want to play, so you want to draw other cards so you have more choice of what to give up. Or, you have one or two cards you don't mind giving up, but they're cards your opponent really needs, so you want to wait another turn for the clearing to get more full so you can pay those cards and have them get cleared away.