The Majority of Time I go Second

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robnotto
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Joined: 02 January 2016, 04:28

The Majority of Time I go Second

Post by robnotto »

It seems like I am going second and abnormal amount of time. During a recent day I went second 9 out of 10 times in a 2 player game. Is this totally random?

Seem broke.
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gmrsmrt
Posts: 68
Joined: 08 January 2021, 17:20

Re: The Majority of Time I go Second

Post by gmrsmrt »

This happens about 1% of the time. Given the large number of players and played games I guess it happens many times a day. It's completely
normal.
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MANNY-OLIVIA
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Joined: 21 April 2023, 00:02

Re: The Majority of Time I go Second

Post by MANNY-OLIVIA »

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Last edited by MANNY-OLIVIA on 28 December 2023, 02:15, edited 2 times in total.
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gmrsmrt
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Re: The Majority of Time I go Second

Post by gmrsmrt »

MANNY-OLIVIA wrote: 27 December 2023, 15:48 It isn't "completely normal".

I play AZUL and 99.9% of the time I go 2nd.
This would definitely be abnormal (by the way no need for boldface). However I strongly doubt your math. You are claiming that
you played 1000 games (two players) and you got first only one time. I don't bother going through your games but I am confident that your statement can easily be proven wrong.
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Cile
Posts: 302
Joined: 13 March 2012, 06:01

Re: The Majority of Time I go Second

Post by Cile »

MANNY-OLIVIA wrote: 27 December 2023, 15:48 It isn't "completely normal".

I play AZUL and 99.9% of the time I go 2nd.
Here are your last 5 games of Azul you played:

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=454495030
You went 1st.

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=454053404
You went 2nd.

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=453845307
You went 1st.

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=453835583
You went 1st.

https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=453467928
You went 2nd.

I recognize 5 is a small sample size but it is looking to be 50/50. Unless you have 3000 other tables of you going 2nd then it's not 99.9% of the time. It's confirmation bias.
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Cile
Posts: 302
Joined: 13 March 2012, 06:01

Re: The Majority of Time I go Second

Post by Cile »

robnotto wrote: 26 December 2023, 22:29 It seems like I am going second and abnormal amount of time. During a recent day I went second 9 out of 10 times in a 2 player game. Is this totally random?

Seem broke.
As of posting you went first in your last 5 games, including one with 4 players.

In a random system you'll get streaks. Looks like you had a streak of 2nds and a streak of 1st, which still works out to half to time (with 2 players).
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MANNY-OLIVIA
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Joined: 21 April 2023, 00:02

Re: The Majority of Time I go Second

Post by MANNY-OLIVIA »

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Last edited by MANNY-OLIVIA on 28 December 2023, 02:16, edited 2 times in total.
RobertBr
Posts: 667
Joined: 08 July 2016, 15:57

Re: The Majority of Time I go Second

Post by RobertBr »

I've met many players who always get black in Chess but none of the players that must always get white.
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frogstar_A
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Joined: 30 April 2020, 00:41

Re: The Majority of Time I go Second

Post by frogstar_A »

MANNY-OLIVIA wrote: 27 December 2023, 20:22 Where does it say on here you can't type in bold?

I didn't state that I played a 1000 games, you did.
If you'd played less than 1000 games you'd have never gone first if what you'd posted was right since 99.9% x 1000 = 999 leaving just 1 going first

However of course it was clearly a made up % and a trivial glance at your past games showed you go first 50% like everyone else :roll:
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MANNY-OLIVIA
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Joined: 21 April 2023, 00:02

Re: The Majority of Time I go Second

Post by MANNY-OLIVIA »

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Last edited by MANNY-OLIVIA on 28 December 2023, 02:13, edited 2 times in total.
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