Which BGA games are most driven by luck?

[laggercat]

I didn't know how to word the question well, so please don't get all forensic on the precise wording.

All I am asking is which games on BGA are closest to a pure luck game, where the finishing order is least related to the decisions of the players.

I don't even care what the 'correct' answer is, asuming there is one. I'm just after a rough list of the games where there is least 'skill'. How you interpret that is up to you.

Think of it this way. Imagine a game where each player threw 50 dice and added up the total, and the highest wins. Which BGA games are as 'lucky' as that game?

No, I am not looking for responses like that Puerto Rice is luck because of the left-right binding with seating order, or that Catan is luck because of the alleged bias in the BGA dice. There are plenty of places to argue yourself silly on those topics. Neither am I looking for a sophisticated discussion on the role of chance in boardgames or a list of cooperative games wor party games where 'winning' is not really the aim of the game (e.g. Telestrations).

I am only asking because I don't know all the games on BGA to be able to make my own assessments.

[Ceaseless]

I don't play many heavier luck-based games, so I won't have a comprehensive idea of the luck scale, but 99 Addition might be a game in that area. Run up to 99, then play the stalling game until someone doesn't have a defensive card. You can throw down a king early if you want to speed things up, but it could just as easily lead to a quick defeat rather than victory. Not much you can do to mess it up beyond that basic order.

[Nastaa]

I don't know all the games in BGA either

These may qualify:
Martian Dice
Quinque
Yahtzee
Go Fish
Trio
Spite and Malice
Solo
Monster Factory
6 nimmt!
Lucky Numbers
No thanks
Love Letter
Hugo
Baby Dinosaur Rescue
Blackjack
Whist 22

Notice that if you want to increase the luck, playing at a higher player number usually helps.

[cigma]

I mostly agree with Nastaa, but not fully about Lucky Numbers. I think this one is often underestimated for the skill needed, which is 50-60% (at least as 2 player game) from my point of view.

Here some more suggestions:
Ticket to Ride
7 Wonders Architects
Captain Flip
Living Forest
Lost Cities
Llama
Mia
Draftosaurus
That’s life
Balloon Pop

But of course they may be discussed also, especially the first 4 of this list

And I am curious: Why are you looking for the most luck based games? If you want to find games suitable for children, this thread might be helpful for you: https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=107984

[ChiefPointThief]

I don't know all the games in BGA either

These may qualify:
Martian Dice
Quinque
Yahtzee
Go Fish
Trio
Spite and Malice
Solo
Monster Factory
6 nimmt!
Lucky Numbers
No thanks
Love Letter
Hugo
Baby Dinosaur Rescue
Blackjack
Whist 22

Notice that if you want to increase the luck, playing at a higher player number usually helps.

Blackjack can’t apply. You can be kicked out of casinos for being too good. 6nimmt has master level players so I don’t think that can apply either.
Trio, love letter, no thanks, lucky numbers while all having a 4 luck rating here your decisions will dictate if you win or not. It sounds like op is looking for a game more like piraten.

Llama, buttons, can’t stop are some others. I’m not big on luck based but I’ll add if I think of more

[teallite]

You have to consider the number of players and different variants too. 6nimmt! and Ticket to Ride can be heavily luck-dependent at higher player counts, but they are skill driven at lower player counts. There are also Tactic, Logic and Pro variants of 6nimmt!, that minimize luck factor even more.

[Ceaseless]

I mostly agree with Nastaa, but not fully about Lucky Numbers. I think this one is often underestimated for the skill needed, which is 50-60% (at least as 2 player game) from my point of view.

Here some more suggestions:
Ticket to Ride
7 Wonders Architects
Captain Flip
Living Forest
Lost Cities
Llama
Mia
Draftosaurus
That’s life
Balloon Pop

But of course they may be discussed also, especially the first 4 of this list

And I am curious: Why are you looking for the most luck based games? If you want to find games suitable for children, this thread might be helpful for you: https://boardgamearena.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=107984

The name in Lucky Numbers seems to be giving itself away here. It's top player ratings align with other luck-based games at low numbers like the 400s despite having a lot of activity. The luck bar of 4 is likely well-deserved here. Not the worst offender out there, but not a very skillful look. Ticket to Ride, on the other hand, has ratings of 700+, which doesn't happen in heavily luck-based games, as the variance would destroy the top player's ratings too much. I suspect there's a similar issue with your evaluation of Living Forest given there's even a couple of 700s making the top there as well.

[shinuito]

I think it depends a little bit on how you curate your opponents also, what maximal ratings you could achieve in heavy luck games. For instance even if the game has a large luck factor, if you're 400 rated and only play other 400 rated players you might maintain that rating or even improve into the 500s, 600s etc. If you constantly play people at 200 rating when you're 400 rated, the variance will destroy you as you said, because you'll stand to gain very little rating but risk a lot each game.

So I think it probably depends a little bit on how you get games, is it Arena, is it restricted rating challenges, completely open challenges or tournaments etc, as well as the actual skill to luck ratio of the game.

[JimBut]

Blackjack can’t apply. You can be kicked out of casinos for being too good.

With counting cards you have an edge of about 2%. If a game has a 52% winrate for someone playing perfect strategy I'd say that's heavily luck based.

[frogstar_A]

One way to tell is to look at the top arena score and top ELO score.
It's almost impossible to get ELO 500 or arena score 1800 if there's a lot of luck involved
Often the games with the most luck have arena winners on 1730 and top ELO 350

Of games i play the ones with most luck are probably

Piraten kapern
Martian Dice
Yahtzee