wishing a bomb out of your partner

[f__c]

I am growing a little tired of my partners across all rating ranges wishing a bomb out of me. But I am very tired of all the time the same reasoning: "bad luck" or "I have not seen the card in the trade, so I figured they, [i.e. opponents] had it", or "the bomb was twice more likely to be with them, than with you".
Well, I don't buy any of that.
In this post, I'd like to present my arguments for a new perspective on this issue.
1. While it is true, that there are two opponents and only one teammate, the argument, that the chance of "getting it right" is 66%, is only correct on the surface. In my opinion, the bigger picture is that ultimately, there are two teams playing - your own, and your opponents'. Your actions are either helping your team, or they are not. Similar logic applies, when your wish aims to find a bomb. You most certainly don't care, if the bomb is found in the hands of the player playing before you or after you, because after all, they are both your opponents. You're just happy to wish a bomb out of the opposing team. So why are we adding the quantities of opponents and teammates into the equation?
I see you shaking your head, so here's another angle.
Having 66% chance of guessing right still leaves you with 33% chance of being wrong. Why not minimize that or even cut down to 0%?

Players always look to find the small bombs, so they typically wish for 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, perhaps even 6s.
Based from my observations from over 500 games, these small bombs are 70-80% of the time formed in the trade, as opposed to being dealt.

So unless you receive the same cards as you traded, your best bet is to wish for the card you gave to the opponents. If there was a bomb to ruin, it'll be 100% the opponent's bomb. If the traded cards were different, then you should evaluate your hand and ask yourself, what are you actually protecting yourself from, as ultimately, a bomb just wins one trick. Have you called Tichu and one well-timed bomb can ruin it all? Go ahead and wish for that missing card. Should that ruin your partner's bomb, I am pretty sure they will gladly exchange that for you putting an extra 100 Tichu points on the board with your now more safely made Tichu.
If you don't have a hand to protect, just wish for the lowest given card, so that your teammate can shed his lowest card.

I guess what I am advocating here for is that being sometimes right is still much worse than being never wrong. And you if you disagree, which you are free to do, but then please spare me your "sry, p".

[dashwood314]

Thanks for starting this discussion. I wanted to exchange thoughts about the best wishing strategy for a long time.

I must admit that I am currently among those players that like wishing for a low card they have not seen in the trade. However, wishing for a bomb is not my primary objective. I am rather hoping to destroy a straight, which would totally ruin my opponent's hand by leaving them with disconnected singles. And if that fails, then at least I am hoping for hitting a pair or a three-of-a-kind. Because of the desire to destroy straights I tend to wish for a 5 or 6.

When the player with the Mahjong sits before me, then I am typically hoping that they wish for the card that they have passed me, because most of the time the card that I got from them in the trade is useless to me.

It would be interesting to run an analysis over a larger dataset of Tichu games. Unfortunately BGA does not provide such data and does not allow to retrieve it. :-/

Even if the wish is only about bombs, then a 67% chance of hurting your opponents badly seems worthwhile to me, even if there is a 33% of hurting your partner. Similar to calling a GT or Tichu, even if you can only reasonably expect to win it in 67% of the cases.

What do others think? What are your wishing strategies?

[Silene]

I must admit that I am currently among those players that like wishing for a low card they have not seen in the trade. However, wishing for a bomb is not my primary objective. I am rather hoping to destroy a straight, which would totally ruin my opponent's hand by leaving them with disconnected singles. And if that fails, then at least I am hoping for hitting a pair or a three-of-a-kind. Because of the desire to destroy straights I tend to wish for a 5 or 6.

When the player with the Mahjong sits before me, then I am typically hoping that they wish for the card that they have passed me, because most of the time the card that I got from them in the trade is useless to me.

100% agree to this.

[f__c]

I must admit that I am currently among those players that like wishing for a low card they have not seen in the trade. However, wishing for a bomb is not my primary objective. I am rather hoping to destroy a straight, which would totally ruin my opponent's hand by leaving them with disconnected singles. And if that fails, then at least I am hoping for hitting a pair or a three-of-a-kind. Because of the desire to destroy straights I tend to wish for a 5 or 6.

Why is wishing for a card you have not seen in the trade more likely to ruin a straight, than wishing a card you passed to the opponent, or any low card for that matter? For the extra odds of perhaps also ruining a bomb? The same chance is there when you pass a low number and don't receive it back. What if that passed card filled someone's bomb or a straight? What if you wish and miss, and then ruin your partner's low straight/ bomb / set/ pair?
At the end of the day, I guess it all comes down to playstyle. Any player, who has reasons to believe in their skill, will want to eliminate the luck element of the game and aim to control as much as there is to control. Wishing for a random card and hoping, is not achieving that, quite the opposite. In my book, the ideal playstyle does not include risking damaging your teammate, unless there is a T/GT call to protect (or other special circumstances). If I would be getting poor results as a consequence of my playstyle, I would definitely re-think it. But having played 500+ games (99% of which with random teammates), I firmly believe, that my approach cannot be a bad one. Could I have won more games wishing for a missing card and destroying straights or bombs or other combos? Possibly. But I don't want to think about how many more games I would have lost crippling my partner with a bad wish.

[Silene]

Yes, good players avoid 50/50 chance of luck elements. But 67/33 they gladly take in a game that has severe luck influence anyway.

I also want to add that when I go first, I will wait a moment before wishing blind. That is a chance for you to call Tichu if you have a great hand that is vulnerable to a wish. If you call Tichu at that moment, I will wish for what I have given the player sitting between us. Same if you had called GT of course.

[Silene]

Could I have won more games wishing for a missing card and destroying straights or bombs or other combos? Possibly. But I don't want to think about how many more games I would have lost crippling my partner with a bad wish.

Due to the respective chances, the number of the former is probably higher then the number of the latter

[Matme1987]

Maybe I'd like to broaden the discussion a bit about the start-of-game wish.


Personally, 90% of the time I make a blind wish, which is the best way to destroy a game. Some players can't stand blind wishes, so they become very (too?) predictable...


Personally, I call the cards I haven't seen through big or small... so yes, there's a bit of rubbish, but it has the not insignificant advantage of being surprising...

And if you don't want your bomb to go off, call Tichu before you wish to ... and that means "play it cool"...It can be a safety feature if you want to call

[f__c]

Due to the respective chances, the number of the former is probably higher then the number of the latter

The key word being: "probably"

I also want to add that when I go first, I will wait a moment before wishing blind. That is a chance for you to call Tichu if you have a great hand that is vulnerable to a wish. If you call Tichu at that moment, I will wish for what I have given the player sitting between us.

and

And if you don't want your bomb to go off, call Tichu before you wish to ... and that means "play it cool"...It can be a safety feature if you want to call

This will not come as a news to you, because you're both solid players, but sometimes, your call depends on first seeing certain cards being played. (especially phoenix, or some low cards). And only then your "maybe a T hand" becomes "i am totally calling" hand. So at the time of wishing, you might not know yet.

My initial post was written in the heat of the moment, I was not and am not lecturing anybody on how to play the game, nor was I saying that my way is the only true correct way to play. I am just saying, that for every 1 time I accidentally damage my partner, my partners damage me 20 times. So now you know where I am coming from.

[Silene]

Due to the respective chances, the number of the former is probably higher then the number of the latter

The key word being: "probably"

"probably" as in "the expected difference is positive" yes. Of course it can differ in the sample of your played games .

I also want to add that when I go first, I will wait a moment before wishing blind. That is a chance for you to call Tichu if you have a great hand that is vulnerable to a wish. If you call Tichu at that moment, I will wish for what I have given the player sitting between us.

and

And if you don't want your bomb to go off, call Tichu before you wish to ... and that means "play it cool"...It can be a safety feature if you want to call

This will not come as a news to you, because you're both solid players, but sometimes, your call depends on first seeing certain cards being played.
(especially phoenix, or some low cards). And only then your "maybe a T hand" becomes "i am totally calling" hand. So at the time of wishing, you might not know yet.

Yes, the outlined options cover only a portion of possible tichu-calls. It's all about increasing chances. There is no certainty in this game.

My initial post was written in the heat of the moment, I was not and am not lecturing anybody on how to play the game, nor was I saying that my way is the only true correct way to play. I am just saying, that for every 1 time I accidentally damage my partner, my partners damage me 20 times. So now you know where I am coming from.

I understand that it feels bad when you got hurt by your partner. Seeing how careful you are to make sure to never hurt your partner, I can totally see how you get hurt so much more by your partner than the other way around. But I am pretty sure that for 20 times your partner hurt you, they hurt your opponnents 40 times. Many of these cases might be invisible for you, because when their straight is crushed, you might never know that this happened.
So while you might be protecting their feelings, that does not necessarily mean you're increasing your win chances with your careful play.

But I agree it's mostly playstyle. While I see many positive aspects of blind-wishing (positive risk/reward ratio), it cannot be neglected that wishing the known card also a positive risk/reward: with the risk being 0 but the odds for negative impact on the opponent being much smaller than with a blind wish. I feel comfortable with the higher risk/rewards and think that is overall slightly better than the more safe and feeling-protecting style. But then again I only partner with people that either I know or exchange this idea with before the game. I might go with your style if I would team up with a random player but without any interaction before the game - in case they are sensitive about getting hurt.

Maybe you can try next time you get hurt to see it as "oh well - this is unfortunate but hey - they tried to increase our win chances, so no hard feelings. It has worked at other times whether I saw it or not"

[f__c]

But I am pretty sure that for 20 times your partner hurt you, they hurt your opponnents 40 times. Many of these cases might be invisible for you, because when their straight is crushed, you might never know that this happened.

I cannot know the exact number, but I can see how many times it happened to me and have a clue, how many times it happens to others. And let me tell you, random wishes very seldom ruin something of worth to me. Occasionally, yes, but nowhere near the frequency, in which bad wishes from my partner damage me.

Maybe you can try next time you get hurt to see it as "oh well - this is unfortunate but hey - they tried to increase our win chances, so no hard feelings. It has worked at other times whether I saw it or not"

wow, I admire your stoic calmness. I will never think, let alone say that. To me, it'll always be a shot in the dark, that hopefully does something good.. And if not, then they can always excuse themselves with a very insincere "Sry P." (and proceed to do it again next game)