Win probability calculation incorrect

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RazorOz
Posts: 388
Joined: 25 June 2022, 13:58

Re: Win probability calculation incorrect

Post by RazorOz »

I agree the real problems all lie with how ELO is now calculated, but renaming it to score or whatever also doesn't solve anything. What's the point of having an ELO/score, surely it's to reflect actual skill level, the current system simply no longer does that. It favours not playing over playing, active players get bodied by the current system, and the clear optimal way to maximise your "score" is to play a few games a month.

And some people may say so what, but here's the thing, if everybody played optimally under this system, there would be no site, because you'd get no games if you had no high volume players. Outside of conspiracy theories, why would the website want a system that actively encourages players to play less, when more games = more players = more subscriptions.
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Klaud07
Posts: 3
Joined: 20 September 2021, 15:43

Re: Win probability calculation incorrect

Post by Klaud07 »

With an approximately equal rating it's a really funny calculation:

Image

1 place: +20 points
2 place: -1 point
3 place: -1 point

Another game:

Image

1 place: +17 points
2 place: +1 point
3 place: -2 points

It turns out 2 games and 2 second places and + 0 points in total...

Good job team!
bialix
Posts: 12
Joined: 16 March 2020, 13:35

Re: Win probability calculation incorrect

Post by bialix »

What is "win probability" ? I never saw it until today when I hover over the results of the game. I'm just curious to know what it means 53% for winning player?
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