Number improbability

[Cile]

Twofisted, the funny thing about these guys commenting on the numbers and you is that they don't actually play space base. Ask other people who play. They don't have to play enough to be a guru (i am) but they should at least have some experience with the game before shouting you down. But they'll keep doing it because it's the internet and they are experts at internet posting.

Users don't see this forum if they don't have at least some experience with the game. I also have a basic understanding of how programming works, and how basic RND(1,6) is. There is no reason for someone to not use a basic RND() function for dice rolls, so unless you think RND() itself is broken any claims about the algorithm is nonsense. If RND() itself is broken, it would be broken for all games on BGA and would quickly become apparent.

[Solarman9]

Users don't see this forum if they don't have at least some experience with the game. I also have a basic understanding of how programming works, and how basic RND(1,6) is. There is no reason for someone to not use a basic RND() function for dice rolls, so unless you think RND() itself is broken any claims about the algorithm is nonsense. If RND() itself is broken, it would be broken for all games on BGA and would quickly become apparent.

Some experience? Yes, your one game played should have vastly better idea of rolls in this game over my 3000+ played. I retract everything I posted, you obviously have vast knowledge of the game.

Past the obvious snark, I play Catan also. Both games roll 2 dice every turn. I have never played a game of Catan where 7 did not roll. Granted I have only played 94 games because it takes longer, but I doubt since it is a major game mechanic that there has ever been a game where 7 did not roll.

[Silene]

Twofisted, the funny thing about these guys commenting on the numbers and you is that they don't actually play space base. Ask other people who play. They don't have to play enough to be a guru (i am) but they should at least have some experience with the game before shouting you down. But they'll keep doing it because it's the internet and they are experts at internet posting.

People - like me - who are not too familiar with the game have several reasons to post here regardless:

(a) the random function is the same in all games that involve dice and have independent calls to that random function
(b) your complaints do not depend on collected data but on collected perception, which is always biased
(c) with your claims, you are directly insulting the programmers because it accuses them to meddle with the dice (unless they meddle with it, there cannot be any systematic patterns - it's just luck + perception bias) - this is independent of the game

These discussions are the same in all the dice games. Bad luck + feelings always makes people come to the forum to complain and confirm each other and that needs opposition regardless of the game because the human brain systematically finds patterns that are only created by coincidence. All those people who played thousands of games but do not have any suspicions will never see this thread nor respond "there's no problem in my perception". So yeah - some of us respond to these threads for multiple games - even if not one of our core-games.

Does randomness create weird results? Yes it does. Often. So yeah - you observed something that looks odd - I give you that. That's because there are not enough rolls within one game. Does it mean the random function is broken? No it doesn't. It's normal for a random-function to produce weird results on small sample sizes. Occasionally very weird as if every roll is against you. You can easily lose luck-games when you do all the right decisions. Most of the time it doesn't even out within one game. But when you're a good player, it will even out over your 3000+ games. That's why you have a good elo and win-percentage.

[Cile]

Some experience? Yes, your one game played should have vastly better idea of rolls in this game over my 3000+ played.

Ah yes, and everyone knows BGA is the only place you can play Space Base. No other version of the game exists!

Past the obvious snark, I also play games in person, and one thing that is always true with in person games: Dice are weird. There will always be some value that shows up a lot more than expected, or a lot less than expected. That doesn't mean the dice are fixed, because that value changes every game, it just means random is random. You are literally complaining about your inability to predict the results of a random system, sounds like the dice are doing their job.

Past the obvious snark, I play Catan also. Both games roll 2 dice every turn. I have never played a game of Catan where 7 did not roll. Granted I have only played 94 games because it takes longer, but I doubt since it is a major game mechanic that there has ever been a game where 7 did not roll.

So the dice for Catan are fine, but the dice for Space Base are not? Do you have any compelling evidence or reason to believe that code for rolling dice in Catan is different than the code for rolling dice in Space Base?

You have 3000+ games of Space Base played, unless you've logged dice rolls that just means you have 3000+ games of confirmation bias. Before any given game of Space Base make a prediction about the rolls that falls outside of normal distribution (5 will be rolled less than 4 for example), then log the rolls and see if you are correct. If your success rate is better than 50% than you may be correct, but the trick is you have to decide to do this before any dice are rolled. Seeing an outlier and then counting it as evidence doesn't prove anything. Outliers will exist given enough sample groups.

[Jellby]

There's absolutely no need to know anything about any game, to compute the probabilities of rolling numbers with dice... Well, you have to know how many dice, which type of dice and what to compute the probabilities for. But having played the game or not is irrelevant.

[TwoFistedTales]

Some experience? Yes, your one game played should have vastly better idea of rolls in this game over my 3000+ played.

Ah yes, and everyone knows BGA is the only place you can play Space Base. No other version of the game exists!

Past the obvious snark, I also play games in person, and one thing that is always true with in person games: Dice are weird. There will always be some value that shows up a lot more than expected, or a lot less than expected. That doesn't mean the dice are fixed, because that value changes every game, it just means random is random. You are literally complaining about your inability to predict the results of a random system, sounds like the dice are doing their job.

Past the obvious snark, I play Catan also. Both games roll 2 dice every turn. I have never played a game of Catan where 7 did not roll. Granted I have only played 94 games because it takes longer, but I doubt since it is a major game mechanic that there has ever been a game where 7 did not roll.

So the dice for Catan are fine, but the dice for Space Base are not? Do you have any compelling evidence or reason to believe that code for rolling dice in Catan is different than the code for rolling dice in Space Base?

You have 3000+ games of Space Base played, unless you've logged dice rolls that just means you have 3000+ games of confirmation bias. Before any given game of Space Base make a prediction about the rolls that falls outside of normal distribution (5 will be rolled less than 4 for example), then log the rolls and see if you are correct. If your success rate is better than 50% than you may be correct, but the trick is you have to decide to do this before any dice are rolled. Seeing an outlier and then counting it as evidence doesn't prove anything. Outliers will exist given enough sample groups.

I had a toxic game interation while playing and was thinking of just quitting BGA. Your condescension seems overwhelming. Thanks for making my decision easier.

[Solarman9]

There's absolutely no need to know anything about any game, to compute the probabilities of rolling numbers with dice... Well, you have to know how many dice, which type of dice and what to compute the probabilities for. But having played the game or not is irrelevant.

I disagree. The anomalys displayed during space base create astronomically disparate outcomes. I have never seen the range that happens in this game in real life. There are some games that appear rigged for a player based on the rolls. Is it rigged, how would I know. But the sheer numbers in certain games makes it appear that way. You ask anyone who plays a lot and i don't mean the very minuscule that Cile(way to push that guy over the edge) plays but you ask anyone who played 500+ games and they will have more then one story of how they were winning, the game was over 40 points, and the last 3 rolls were both 12 or 11 or 10 and it gave someone a victory because they got 20+ points. I just see bias in this "random" rolling that I don't see in other games on this website.

And for Cile, i am pretty sure the same guy does not code every game on here so yes I believe that the algorithm for random dice rolls is different in every game. I am sure you disagree as you are the all knowing all playing god of this website and forum.

[Cile]

(way to push that guy over the edge)

Reflecting your attitude pushed that guy over the edge? You might want to consider the implications of that.

they were winning, the game was over 40 points, and the last 3 rolls were both 12 or 11 or 10 and it gave someone a victory because they got 20+ points.

That statement is counter to your argument. If Player A is winning and Player B had a bunch of 12s or 11s or 10s then 12s or 11s or 10s had not been favoured up to that point. Unless your suggesting the game has some code in it that decided Player B should win, look at the cards of Players A and B to see what number is advantageous for B, and then force those numbers to roll once it detects the end of the game is near? That's a lot of work to give an advantage to a player for no good reason (and super easy to spot by someone looking at the code).

i am pretty sure the same guy does not code every game on here so yes I believe that the algorithm for random dice rolls is different in every game.

What you need to understand about coding is nobody codes from scratch. Libraries exist that included commonly used functions which saves a ton of time. Nobody is coding how to generate a random number from scratch because that function exists in a library and that would be an unnecessary amount of work. In Java there is 1 way to generate a random number: https://www.w3schools.com/java/java_how ... number.asp

It doesn't matter how many different people code how many different games on the site, I promise you every single dice roll uses the same code (use the existing library to generate a random number from 1-6) because it is by far the fastest and easiest way to do so. And again, if the dice were biased, you'd see the emphasis on 12, or 11, or 10 all game, and in every game, not just 2 or 3 turns in a row.

[Lucatan777]

Dice in game board arena totally not random. I think it may be programmed against the people that are not paying the fee.

[Jellby]

Dice in game board arena totally not random. I think it may be programmed against the people that are not paying the fee.

Same as real dice. Some of us pay a dice fee every quarter to get better rolls during our board game evenings. It does not work in casinos though. Ask your city about dice providers.