Probability

[WalterSk]

i know card games are random on what u draw but hear me out, my deck on altered use permanent cards i have 5 of them that i pretty much need at least 1 to start making my good plays, i had a game were i draw 20 cards ( i use a lot resuply....) and none of them came , did the calculation ( on chat gtp) and the probability of pulling 20 cards on a deck of 39 and none of those 5 come is 0.00327% i was like wow i got really unlucky , and went to play another game , when deck reach 19 card (pull 20 cards again ) and again twice in a row none of the permanents came i just admit defeat , a probability of 0.00327% happen twice in a row!? wtf is happening here?!

[Jellby]

https://cardgamecalculator.com/?N=39&K=5&n=20&k=1

The probability of drawing at least one of your good 5 cards with 20 draws out of 39 is 97.98%, so the probability of NOT drawing any is 2.02%, far from your 0.00327%. The probability of that happening twice in a row is 0.04% or 1 in ~2500.

The probability of ChatGPT giving a wrong answer is probably larger than 2.02% too.
The probability of someone coming here to complain is 100%

[Silene]

ChatGTP needs a good wording of your question. Pretty sure it can give you the ~2%, if you ask your queston right.

Whatever you get from ChatGTP - make sure you at least do some sanity check with it. In this example you could see the chance of not getting one specific card is roughly 1/2. So not getting any of the 5 should be somewhere near 1/2 ^ 5 = 1/32, which is around 3%. This is a very flawed calculation, but it's easy and works well as a sanity check to see that 0.00327% has to be way off.

[WalterSk]

https://cardgamecalculator.com/?N=39&K=5&n=20&k=1

The probability of drawing at least one of your good 5 cards with 20 draws out of 39 is 97.98%, so the probability of NOT drawing any is 2.02%, far from your 0.00327%. The probability of that happening twice in a row is 0.04% or 1 in ~2500.

The probability of ChatGPT giving a wrong answer is probably larger than 2.02% too.
The probability of someone coming here to complain is 100%

still very unlucky xD