Dice are Wrecking the Fun of This Game

[buu441]

The dice roll on this platform is NOT Random. I can NEVER be convinced it is random. I have played more than 1200 games of Catan on this platform ( I shut down my premium account and went back to a free account) and I have played enough games to know it is NOT random.

Ah that explains it. Didn't you know that paying for premium guarantees you better dice rolls? The moment you cancelled, it was over for you.

[Kaladry]

I played a game in person with friends a few days ago where we didn't roll a 9 until close to the end of the game. It was lots of 4s and 10s. It happens in real life.

[King Derf]

Just played a game where 9 came up 21 times, 6 14 times, 2-7 times, 3-7 times, 4-7 times, and 8-7 times. Just ridiculous the odds of this. Every game always seems to be dominated by either 6 or 8 followed by some random number that defies all odds by a factor of a million.

[Jellby]

Just played a game where 9 came up 21 times, 6 14 times, 2-7 times, 3-7 times, 4-7 times, and 8-7 times.

No, those are percentages. The game had only 57 turs, so 57 rolls. Those numbers add up to 63 (and you didn't specify all the other numbers).

But even if those were the number of rolls, so what? I rolled two dice and got 3 and 4, the game is rigged!

And with almost 4.5 games played, I'd say every game is 1 in 4.5 million

[JohnnyCyclops]

Just played a game where 9 came up 21 times, 6 14 times, 2-7 times, 3-7 times, 4-7 times, and 8-7 times. Just ridiculous the odds of this. Every game always seems to be dominated by either 6 or 8 followed by some random number that defies all odds by a factor of a million.

Seven percent 2s (above expected) and two percent 12s (below expected). And so it goes.

57 rolls is too small a sample. Please report back after 100 games with circa 5,000 rolls and let us know the standard deviation for each expected value.

[Romain672]

Just played a game where 9 came up 21 times, 6 14 times, 2-7 times, 3-7 times, 4-7 times, and 8-7 times. Just ridiculous the odds of this. Every game always seems to be dominated by either 6 or 8 followed by some random number that defies all odds by a factor of a million.

Ok so:
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4 4 4 7 9 8 4 12 3 1 1
57 rolls. Let's see the most unlikely occurence, look like it's four 2 or twelve 9.
twelve 9 or more out of 57 rolls happen 2.1% of the time.
four 2 or more out of 57 rolls happen 7.4% of the time.
So we keep the 2.1%.

Now you can in any game said that a specific number is too much or too few rolled, so I will 'multiply' that probability per 22: 1-(1-0.021)^22=37.3%.

So more than 1 game out of 3, you should have a number rolled too much or too few compared to what you exepct in average compared to that game. Far from your million.
So yeah, people don't understand stats and maths.


Btw, I regularly do that kind of posts, and since I started to do it, I yet to find a 1/1000 probability. But that should happen... Every 1000 games. If you can manage to find me a 1/1M odd, that will be fun. If you can find me that twice, that could mean that something is wrong.

[Excior]

Update: I don't think players are straight rigging numbers, but if they know what script the game is running they are taking advantage of it.


Catan is not a dice game. It's a resource game and an attack game. Player behavior, not strict number distribution, discloses cheating and conversely fairplay. Whether or not a '3' for example rolls at a reasonable rate over the whole of the game means very little. When it rolls and what resource it produces means everything. Each number represents resources, from 0 benefit (no cards drawn on that roll), all the way up to something like 12 cards (being triple built on a double 3 with cities for example). And any given number can produce multiple resource types, or single resource types. Additionally, any given number has a relative benefit to the 3 or 4 players who may be on it, from none at all, to a lot. As a resource game (not a dice game), a single number rolled many times, or not at all, does not make or break the game, nor does it give adequate insight into cheating. Looking at the aggregate distribution of dice is wholly insufficient to detect cheating the dice in CATAN, maybe this would work in Yahtzee (which is a strict dice game), but not CATAN. So let me talk about player behavior.

Normal player behavior looks like:
Players are rational, they don't know what numbers will roll, so they seek to be on numbers that are both likely to roll AND produce resources they need to advance the game. As the game progresses, players build toward more numbers and more resource types. They also build to increase the marginal benefit from any one number (ie adding another settlement or city onto a number they are already on). With Cities and Knights there is a second/third layer of strategy geared toward building knights and gathering commodities (hence more fun, more ways to progress).
Bottom line: In EVERY normal game I've played, win or lose, I've witnessed rational/logical behavior from all players reflecting they do NOT know what number will roll.

"Cheating the Dice "Player behaviors look like:
Exclusivity - Player will build onto (or move with trick cards) number(s) they are exclusively on. They then roll these numbers often, giving them an exorbitant advantage. (ie build on '2' and '12', and get "super lucky") The focus here is making sure they are exclusively on a number. Using the game I link above a case study, the suspect player is exclusively on 4 and 10 (which together represent 56% of all rolls in the game).

Aqueduct abuse - Player will build a city on wood at the start of the game (any number) and roll that number frequently until they can claim the level 3 benefit, allowing them to pick whatever card they need on any roll from them on out. This is especially effective when other players share numbers they are on. Player can then roll numbers no one is on, or have very small benefit and claim whatever needed resource they want.
Moving the robber (with 7 roll) immediately off their tiles if blocked (since some cards and knights can move the robber onto them without a 7 roll).
Moving the robber (with 7 roll) onto opponents number that is also a number they need to roll. Example, they need a brick from a 5 roll, but rolling a 5 would be too beneficial to the other players, so block the other player's 5 and let 5s roll!
Denial of resources to other players - Especially early in the game, holding numbers away from other players so they don't get crucial resources in time can destroy competitive play. In cities and knights in particular, denying other players a roll of wheat/sheep/ore can prevent them from building a knight and cost them the loss of a city when the barbarians attack. This is very difficult to recover from.
Irrationally doubling up on exclusive numbers that are unlikely to roll - Nothing smells more suspicious than a player using that "swap 2 numbers" trick card to put themselves onto double 3 or double 11, when they aren't on the 9 or 5 or 4 or 10, all of which are rationally better numbers to take.
Inconsistent or slow time-to-roll at the start of a turn - Sometimes they don't care what rolls, so they roll immediately on their turn (they already have the resources needed for the next build), and sometimes they need a few seconds to figure out what number is the most beneficial to their progress and least beneficial to their opponents.
Others - I'd add more when I think of them

Bottom-line: In EVERY rigged game I've played, win or lose (usually lose, but if you know they are cheating you can reflective build and beat them at their own game sometimes), I've witnessed irrational/illogical behavior from players reflecting they DO know what number will roll.

Some Counter play options if you're up against a cheater:
- Play on the same numbers as them. This can prevent them from the marginal benefit they're after.
- Use the power of trick cards, take their resources, take their knights, do everything you can to make their advantage into yours. Especially if they get into the lead early, trick cards can be very helpful at attacking them.
- If they do have exclusive numbers, and you can get the 'swap numbers' card, swap their most beneficial number to something you are also on. Try not to worry about the specific number is, just that you wreck their exclusiveness.
- Call them out nicely "hey I'd rather not play with someone rigging the dice, do you mind?" Be civil if you can.
- Anyone else have tips to offer?

Thanks for listening to my TED Talk

Are you implying that using the Robber to your advantage to keep other people from using their resources is cheating?