Ticket to Ride 20th Anniversary World Tournament

[Qorlas]

It depends there will be a 6 wins player against a 5 wins player

[MadManMark]

Ah you are correct, there will be 7 players with 6 wins at the end of this round, not 8.

So I think the correct math for final standings for top 8 is 5-6 players with 7-8 wins, and 2-3 with 6 wins. Thanks for the correction.

[daedin28]

This is more than 99% correct, but not absolutely, still the chance of a draw in the matches between the players with 6 wins that reduce the number of players with 6 wins at the end that advance to Paris.

[Rwain]

This is more than 99% correct, but not absolutely, still the chance of a draw in the matches between the players with 6 wins that reduce the number of players with 6 wins at the end that advance to Paris.

That could happen, you're right ! For now, there was absolutely no perfect tie since the beginning of the tournament, but it might happen !

Now, let's talk about what happened in the second part of this step 8.

First ,let's have a look at the upper part of the standings, where players were fighting for a 6th victory, to gather with scorps4, nyan-cat and Eichi05 in the decisive games of round 9. Here are the results of these games :

Le Goupil - Sunny369 120 - 119
daedin28 - Elric_S 119 - 119
will_will - Schwen84 74 - 66
ExaltedAngel - Nicolas21 107 - 87

There were some close games here, like the tie between daedin28 and Elric_S, or the 1 point victory from LeGoupil ! A game in particular attracted the eyes of other players :

Very tense game, lots of "fights"... as in the ExaltedAngel - Nicolas21's duel, where blocks around Helena lead the french player to stay with 2 uncompleted tickets...

That makes 4 more players in the 6 - 2 group : Le Goupil, daedin28, will_will and ExaltedAngel, two of them who were winners of their qualifying tournaments ! Each of them just have to get one more victory to qualify for the finale in Paris... and the best part is that, even if they were to lose, they would still have a chance to qualify as they will be amongst the 6 - 3 players to be departed through the tiebreakers.

On the other side, for Sunny369, Elric_S, Schwen84 and Nicolas21, hope is still there but chances are really smaller now. With a 5 - 3 record, they must win their last game... and even a victory could not be enough as only 2 (or 3) players with a 6 - 3 record will attend the finale.
While these 4 players might be disappointed to end with a 5 - 3 record at the end of step 8 after their defeat, others must feel a bit happier as they won to reach this record, that leaves them with still a little hope to be in the 8 qualified players.

That happened to MadManMark, Batze, Niall and Qorlas ! All of them won their 8th game, and are still in the run. With a current 31 tiebreaker, Batze is one of the better placed (he has the 3rd tiebreaker for now, behing G7 womble (33) and daedin28 (32)). For this german player who was not amongst the biggest favorites at the start of the tournament, that's a very nice course ! And that also shows that he did very well, playing and winning against players with a high number of wins (like Eichi05 and nyan-cat!). But the journey is not over, and the hardest is to come, as a victory is mandatory to have a little hope to qualify.

But, if those 4 players are still in the run, that also means that their opponents are officially out. Among them, the pacific champion: ommie32, who lost for few points (and for a last chance move that cost her 8 points... and the game, as she only lost 98 - 93), Sysyphus and Trainalot, two of the top favorites at the start of the tournament, who were in the 8 best ELOs at the start; and pegaso74.

We now have a complete list of players still in the run for Paris... or we almost have one ! There's still one player who still have a chance to end in the 8. He is Pechnik, and he is facing chooosen (who has already been eliminated) in a tense game that stretched a little. I tried to stay awake long enough to write its conclusion, but they are still playing at the time I'm writing. Only one move left for Pechnik... will he succeed in staying alive in the tournament with a 5 - 3 record ? Or will his hope of being in Paris end tonight ?


With 3 games still pending, no one can know who will be their opponents in round 9... and I have great fear that we might face the first uncomplete games tomorrow morning... that would be a bit sad, after 237 games played entirely... we'll see !

[Rwain]

Only one move left for Pechnik... will he succeed in staying alive in the tournament with a 5 - 3 record ? Or will his hope of being in Paris end tonight ?

And finally, he managed to get his 5th victory : 117 - 106 over chooosen, making him the 21th player to run for one of the 6 seats left in the Paris Express.
And here are the complete list of players involved in this run, and the actual standing :


A short analysis here :

ALREADY QUALIFIED : Cournot and BalduvianHorde.

COULD QUALIFY EVEN WITH A LAST DEFEAT : will_will, daedin28 and scorps4 (and maybe ExaltedAngel) They already have the 6 victories needed to be in the groups of players to be sorted should they end with a 6 - 3... and their current tiebreakers is quite good. For instance, will_will, with 41, has the second best tiebreaker after round 8. With only 38, ExaltedAngel has fewer chances to qualify ending with a defeat, but it might happen, depending on all other results..
And of course, a victory would mean qualification for the three of them.

A VICTORY = A TICKET TO PARIS As for the 4 previous players, all other players with a 6 - 2 record only need a 7th victory to qualify. That's the case for nyan-cat, Le Goupil and Eichi05... For them, aiming the victory is mandatory, their tiebreaker seems too low at the time to hope for a "second chance in the tiebreaking".

BEST CHANCES IN THE SORTING. G7womble seems in the best place for the sorting. With a tiebreaker of 43, she seeems to have her destiny in hand. A sixth victory should lead her to Paris. Batze (40) and Schwen84 (39) are quite in the same conditions. A 6th victory should place them near the 8th rank...

WINNING MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH For other players with a 5 - 2 record, it might be more difficult to reach one of the qualifying seat. A victory could not be enough, and they might have to count on favorable circumstances to qualify. For instance, MadManMark, Elric_S, Nicolas21 and cannonade all show a 37 tiebreaker... Even if all of them were to win their 9th game, they could not all go to Paris ! So they have to hope that most of the players they encountered in the previous rounds get a win in the 9th ! It's quite the same for Olimpionik, with his 36.

YOU NEVER KNOW ... And finally, a seat in the 8 finalists seems a bit far for MorientesZL, Sunny369, Qorlas, mr_snuffelupagus, Pechnik and Niall. Their tiebreaker are amongst the lowest... so they have to win, but they also have to hope that players with high tiebreakers lose... and that their own tiebreaker got raised by victories of their 8 previous opponents. The odds are not with them... but we have seen so many surprises in this tournament that I won't bet anything... and maybe one of them could have his stars aligned !

[Rwain]

Everything's going so fast in this tournament ! I just ended the presentation of the standings that I have to present you two new qualified players !!!! (in fact, I intended to post the round9 analysis this morning but.... "real life" caught me... )

The third player who earned his ticket in the Paris Express is...
SCORPS4

Coming from America, scorps4 was one of the three leaders of the american delegation with thekid and ommie32. Defeated in the last game of the Pacific Standard Tournament (by ommie32 !), he might have felt a little fear at the start of the semifinals, with a defeat in his second game (against daedin28). But he followed by 5 victories in a row before his last defeat against BalduvianHorde. With an overall 15 - 3, it's almost a perfect record for him.

He started his last game with two western tickets, that combine quite well : Calgary - Phoenix and Helena - LA (leaving LA - Miami aside), while his formidable opponent Eichi05 (winner of the Eastern Tournament!) had to play east with Toronto - Miami and Chicago - New Orleans. Scorps4 had the opposite configuration in his previous game (lost against BalduvianHorde), this time, he took the benefice of playing west (even without the start).
No surprise, they started on opposite sides, and the game went on as if they were playing symmetrically...
They went blow for blow, and developed their games at the same rythm...


And there came what I see as the key move of this game : scorps4 chose to spend 4 locomotives to claim a route in Eichi05's track ! A move that might not have been expected by the german champion, as scorps4 had already spent his yellow on Seattle - Helena !


That cost so much to Eichi05, who had to spend two moves for only 4 points to bypass by Saint-Louis... scorps4 shot a lethal blow here, and only had to end the game as fast as he could. Eichi05 could not compete for the longest path neither, and had to face a third defeat... that could mean the end of his hopes for Paris. He now has to wait for all other games to end, but his tiebreaker is currently one of the lowest of the 6 - 3 players, and it seems quite unlikely that he ended in the 8.



The fourth player to qualify is ....
WILL_WILL

One of the two players from Hong Kong (with Sunny369 who still could be one of the 8 qualified players, which would be quite a feat for Hong Kong to place their 2 players in finale!), and mostly, the winner of the Chinese Standard Time qualifying tournament ! That means that, in all tournaments, will_will only lost two games !!!! (against Elric_S and ExaltedAngel), and that's quite a feat !

For his 9th game in the semifinals, he was opposed to G7 womble. The german player (again) had the best start in the tournament, with 5 victories in a row, making her the leader of the standing from step 4 to 6... but everything went bad after her defeat against Cournot. She here had a chance to benefit from her perfect start, and tried to when she selected Helena - LA with Kansas City - Houston... But will_will was interested in LA too, as he kept Seattle - LA and LA - Chicago ! Three tickets around LA ! A fight was expected there.
And yet, will_will decided to focus his strategy in the center, starting with 3 locos spent to ensure Duluth - Helena ! And then to link Seattle... G7 womble followed, claiming Winnipeg-Sault Ste Marie while she also secured her positions in the south from LA to Houston. She tried to disturb will_will's development, claiming routes along his track... but will_will always found an answer to her blocks, and built a nice track that offered hime the longest path.



123 - 108 for will_will, who will have the pleasure to make a long trip around the world to be in Paris in May !
For G7 womble, it's a very sad ending... she had started so well that many thought her qualification was ensured. That's the hard part of Ticket To Ride... ups and downs can alternate very fast (as we saw for some of the tournament's champions, who went from undefeated streak to premature eliminations).


The last info for tonight is the elimination of one of the 5-3 player who still had a small chance to be in Paris : Niall. The british player suffered a fourth defeat against Diger74 : 123 - 111, resulting in the end of his hope to be the surprise guest of the finale. Indeed, with a ELO less than 500, he was not expected amongst the last players to compete for qualifications. He ended the best british player of the tournament, and that's already something ! So congratulations to him (even if he might be a little bit disappointed just now, I'm sure he will realize his great run in this tournament).


For now, we have half of the finalists :
- BalduvianHorde, from Italy ;
- Cournot, from Canada ;
- scorps4, from USA ;
- will_will, from Hong Kong.

Still 4 seats to take. Who will be the 4 others ?

[mr_snuffelupagus]

I don't contribute much to the conversation ...I wanted to thank Rwain for being the face, organizer and for the commentary! Although I won't be going to Paris this time, I've enjoyed this opportunity immensely and will continue to follow to see who does get to go to Paris!

Thanks again to Rwain and to all for a great experience. I had a lot of fun!

Mr_Snuffelupagus

[Qorlas]

I wish to thank you all for the emotions in this tournament. I will be 11th-12th if I win last game, worse if I lose, so the adventure is at an end.

The last 2 places are in contention between 5 players now and I will say no more about it.
I am glad that we will have two italian players in the final.... I still remind the time in which I was the only Italian player making tournaments online in 2008-2009 and we made a italian team full of people from abroad.
We were 6 italians living in Italy for the semifinals and I really hoped to go to the finals... but losing 2 games for 1 point each was my end

If there will be an italian streaming of the final call me !

Thanks all!

[daedin28]

The last 2 places are in contention between 5 players now and I will say no more about it.

If Im not wrong, nyan-cat is in Paris for sure, so just one place in dispute.

[Qorlas]

No, he is at 48 that can be reached by Batze and Elric. Batze cannot overcome nyan-cat but Elric can