Allow me to re-iterate. The game is most balanced in the 4p format. The HU format is fun, but it is toss-up. If you don’t understand that, then you don’t understand variance. That in mind, surely a 100-200 elo player will almost certainly lose to a 400+ consistently because of the skill gap, but like in Poker (which I play professionally), as the gap narrows, so does the edge. People can easily go on 10+ game runs in HU and think they are the best in the world or something.
Prelude IS mandatory. Without it I find myself snoozing off quite frequently. It does add a lot more variance, especially in HU. There are game breaking cards in this game, whether you like it or not (for the HU format). Those cards are Earth Cata, Protected Habitats, and AI. If either of those cards are played by the 5th gen in a HU game, it’s over, and there’s a very high likelihood these cards will be drawn between two players. Now maybe you’ve taken a game or two against players who are good and have pulled these cards early. Congratulations, you got lucky.
Draft is mandatory. Without it, the game is a farce. You can’t take any non-draft games seriously.
Personally, I find a negligible difference in skill level between a 300 elo and 600 elo player. I’ve defeated both and lost to both. The 600 elo player just puts in more games and weathers the short-term variance.