Recent uptick in smurfs?

[zlefin]

Lately I've noticed several smurfs (ie account/players listed as 'new' that clearly have played the game very extensively, and almost certainly online given the play patterns which are only really found amongst people who've played a LOT).
That said it could just be random chance, so I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed that a lot lately, in particular for terraforming mars.

[nik592]

Games exist on many other platforms than these. My partner and I used to play quite a lot of TM online before it was implemented here. In addition, plenty of people could just be playing the physical game - it's quite reasonable to have a weekly game night where you play your favourite game at least once every week, which can add up to a lot of non-online play.

The idea of the higher K factor initially is to more quickly get people to the rank they belong at (hence wins give you big swings up and losses big swings down). But for people who've played very minimally on BGA, you can't really assume anything about their ability.

Additionally, I've seen players who can just grasp how to play a game very quickly and dominate other (casual) players. They're not likely to beat a seasoned expert, but most players aren't expert in more than a few games (because of the amount of time required to get that good at any one game). I don't consider myself expert in much at all, but I have a few friends who when I show them new games, more often than not, they'll still beat me, even if I feel like I have a reasonable grasp on the game, and sometimes I'll spot them employing strategies that hadn't yet occurred to me despite having played a significantly higher number of games.

[h_illes]

Games exist on many other platforms than these...

Your arguments explain the existence of experienced players with new accounts, but not the recent uptick (if it is real).

That said it could just be random chance, so I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed that a lot lately, in particular for terraforming mars.

Any other games where you noticed it?

[nik592]

Games exist on many other platforms than these...

Your arguments explain the existence of experienced players with new accounts, but not the recent uptick (if it is real).

Yes, I tend to take most people's anecdotal "there seems to be more of x going on" with a grain of salt. Humans are terribly subject to things like perception bias (it's amazing how many pregnant people are in the world when you yourself become pregnant, etc.) and even if there is an influx of experienced new players, it could still just be a coincidence. At a very simple level, a person who plays a lot of (for example) TM online, could discover BGA and then invite their friends who also play TM (and their friends and so on). I also feel like calling them smurfs is a little unfair, as to me to implies a level of malicious intent. What option does someone new to BGA but experienced with a game have to indicate that to their opponent? That's the whole point of high K factor on early games isn't it? Occasionally, you'll get clobbered by a beginner, but Elo will eventually sort them out.

[nano_kaiju]

Lately I've noticed several smurfs (ie account/players listed as 'new' that clearly have played the game very extensively, and almost certainly online given the play patterns which are only really found amongst people who've played a LOT).
That said it could just be random chance, so I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed that a lot lately, in particular for terraforming mars.

I guess I am a smurf. I joined recently and won my first two games of TMars. The high K factor seems to be doing its job.

I have previously played TMars hundreds of times on physical copies, but never online. I am puzzled by the notion that if someone is moderately skilled, they must have played online.

[Cile]

In addition, plenty of people could just be playing the physical game

Careful, you might get moderated for talking about other platforms (real life).

[6element]

....

it's amazing how many pregnant people are in the world when you yourself become pregnant

Please ping me when h_illes becomes pregnant. Thanks!

[don1991]

I've also seen it in St. Petersburg. There appears to be this one player who creates new accounts, pretends he or she is a beginner, dominates 1 or 2 games, destroys the account, and starts all over. I have almost stopped allowing beginning players to that particular game because of this individual.

[h_illes]

Please ping me when h_illes becomes pregnant. Thanks!

At a very simple level, a person who plays a lot of (for example) TM online, could discover BGA and then invite their friends who also play TM (and their friends and so on). I also feel like calling them smurfs is a little unfair, as to me to implies a level of malicious intent. What option does someone new to BGA but experienced with a game have to indicate that to their opponent? That's the whole point of high K factor on early games isn't it? Occasionally, you'll get clobbered by a beginner, but Elo will eventually sort them out.

This actually does happen. In March-April 2022, a bunch of seasoned veterans in Century: Spice Road (including me) migrated to BGA from another site after someone pointed to BGA in the forums on said other site. So there was a sudden influx of pros who were stronger than anyone on BGA at that time, and accordingly, the top of the leaderboards changed drastically in a matter of weeks. It must have been a shock. In retrospect, I feel a little sorry for the old top players here from that time.

[FrankJones]

I've also seen it in St. Petersburg. There appears to be this one player who creates new accounts, pretends he or she is a beginner, dominates 1 or 2 games, destroys the account, and starts all over. I have almost stopped allowing beginning players to that particular game because of this individual.

I never join games with beginners. Not exactly for the reason you said, but similar.

I am accustomed to gaming sites where the Elo of a person playing against a new player is protected against such occurrences. BGA has no such protection.

To clarify further: A new player's K-factor makes that new player's rating highly elastic for the purpose of more quickly bringing that player's rating to its actual true rating. But in the meantime, a 500-rated player who loses to that player can lose a ton of points because of the misfortune of playing someone who is a true 500 player but currently has a rating of zero.

The Elo rating change of someone playing against a non-established player should only change by a factor of K/20, where K is the number of games the new player has completed. I was rather surprised when I played against a very strong and obviously experienced player with a 64 rating and discovered that no such thing exists here.