Repeated die roll - is it truly random ?

[danielvictor]

I rolled the same number 3 consecutive times while fishing in my most recent game.I think that was my penultimate set of die rolls,the last one being theft.
Thank you for your analysis,but your sentences are very hard to follow. Please could you answer this one simple question. Of sequences where my first two die rolls were identical,and I rolled a third time,what percentage were repeats of the first two rolls ?

[Gulchen]

"I rolled the same number 3 consecutive times while fishing in my most recent game."


Is https://boardgamearena.com/table?table=626713396 the game?
Are you still referring to specifically, your d8 rolls?

(rather than counting ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ rolls by other players ​ , ​ rolls of something other than a d8 ​ ​ ​ )



"Of sequences where my first two die rolls were identical,and I rolled a third time,what percentage were repeats of the first two rolls ?"

If you limit to sequences of three d8 rolls by you where all three of those rolls were in the same game, then approximately ​ ​ ​ 15.4 % ​ .
If you include sequences of three d8 rolls by you even if those are from two consecutive games involving you, then exactly ​ ​ ​ 12.5 % ​ .

[danielvictor]

Thank you again.Since fishing requires a D 8,yes,I was referring to rolls of a D 8. [Theft also requires a D 8].
I was referring to rolls within the same game, I had assumed that by the time a different game had started,any initial roll would have been randomised. So the relevant figure is over 15%,according to your statistics.

[Gulchen]

Flip a coin exactly once, and then answer this one simple question:
Of the times you just flipped a coin, what percentage of the results were heads?

Is your answer somewhat close to 50%, or instead much closer to one of ​ ​ ​ 0% , 100% ​ ?


getting back to your rolls:

There were exactly 13 sequences within the same game where your first two d8 rolls were identical,
and you rolled a d8 a third time. ​ Of these, exactly 2 were repeats of the first two rolls. ​ ​ ​ This is
the closest it could've been to 1/8: ​ 2/13 is approximately 15.4%, and 1/13 is approximately 7.7%.

[danielvictor]

Thank you again. I apologise for not making this clearer in my last reply,although I thought that I already had. I am concerned only with repeat die rolls within the same action with a d-8.Not with whether sequences carried forward to different actions,as I had assumed that they would not.I am only concerned with instances where I rolled the same number on my first two rolls for the same action,and then chose to roll a third time. In what percentage of such instances was the third roll a repeat of the first two ?

[Gulchen]

I don't have help for you regarding that, since I don't see how to tell from the Game Log whether-or-not die rolls were within the same action.

[ArchDevious]

I get three repeated numbers all the time. Just went 6 6 6 with a D8 while trapping when I needed a 5 or less. So frustrating on round 1 especially. https://boardgamearena.com/15/feastforo ... =649656273#
It may just be in my head, but if its an important roll and I have gotten the same bad number twice in a row, I am refreshing the page before rolling the 3rd time.

Keep in mind you stop rolling once you get a result you want. So if you stop when you get a low number you can never go 1 1 1 or 2 2 2.

[fiscused]

This happens all the time when playing the actual board game at the table with my friends. I think the game itself does this and it isn't part of the dice program!

[danielvictor]

Thanks.It seems to have stopped now,although I did get a descending sequence one time.

[RicardoRix]

I just got 2 back-to-back which raised my spidey senses.

I then tried a solo game and couldn't get 1 all game.