Anachrony Tournament Stats - The Round

[Zaypex]

It was a pleasure to play with everyone! Congrats to LilyOfValleys for the win! With this, I wanted to run some stats on all 135 games throughout 2 stages, 4 groups.

Note that I took out games where they ended abrupted (conceeding, passed most of the game). 17 games ended this way, leaving us with 118 games.

Top Average Score:

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Player           | Score Overall
-----------------|-------
Mr Burak         | 86.00
RPeter22         | 84.57
gustov79         | 83.57
LilyOfValleys    | 83.29
Zaypex           | 81.75

But with score going up if you go into more rounds, these numbers can lie a little.
When the game ended in era 5 (the first round after impact),

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Player           | Score - Era 5
-----------------|-------
gustov79         | 78.00
zhommart         | 76.00
LilyOfValleys    | 75.00
Zaypex           | 73.50
kyle of Klanach  | 71.00

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Player           | Score - Era 6
-----------------|-------
LilyOfValleys    | 84.67
RPeter22         | 84.57
Zaypex           | 84.40
gustov79         | 83.60
kyle of Klanach  | 81.00

Game ended in era 7

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Player           | Score - Era 7
-----------------|-------
JanErikTheGreat  | 103.00
Mr Burak         | 95.50
Robert0          | 93.00
Llinas           | 91.50
Ru Nacken        | 90.00

JanErikTheGreat had the highscore of the tournament with 108! Here's the full highscores:

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Player           | Score
-----------------|------
JanErikTheGreat  | 108
Zaypex           | 107
Zaypex           | 105
Mr Burak         | 101
JanErikTheGreat  | 100

Speaking of different eras, I wanted to see if the first player (player 1) had any advantage to going first.

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Game Ended In | Player 1 Avg (σ)   | Player 2 Avg (σ)
--------------|--------------------|--------------------
Era 5         | 48.91 (σ 19.33)    | 54.25 (σ 26.09)
Era 6         | 71.43 (σ 16.70)    | 69.76 (σ 15.61)
Era 7         | 79.00 (σ 14.40)    | 80.19 (σ 18.31)

From this I gather that there really isn't much advantage to go first or second. Ending the game in era 5 just seems very votaile overall.

But what about Paths? Do they have any significance?

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Path        | Score (σ)        | Evac Pts (σ)     | Games Played | Wins | Win Rate
------------|------------------|------------------|---------------|------|----------
Harmony     | 76.04 (σ 16.87)  | 21.63 (σ 7.12)   | 69            | 47   | 0.681
Dominance   | 72.40 (σ 16.96)  | 16.29 (σ 6.01)   | 81            | 43   | 0.531
Salvation   | 63.08 (σ 18.07)  | 14.45 (σ 9.52)   | 51            | 19   | 0.373
Progress    | 56.63 (σ 20.99)  |  9.57 (σ 9.66)   | 35            |  8   | 0.229

One thing I will note is that the log does not show whether you got A side or B side of your leader board, and since that determines your evac bonus, it's hard to determine any differences. We can pretty easily tell that Progress has a rough time generating points regardless of side and with a win rate of 22.9%, it's pretty hard for me to justify manually picking Progress.


Onto buildings! Admittedly, 118 isn't enough games to truly give weight to this table, but it's still fun. I think the best way to do this is just plop the entire table here:

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Building                   | Win Rate | Times Built | Wins | Losses | Avg Build Order
---------------------------|----------|------------|------|--------|-----------------
307                        | 0.811    | 53         | 43   | 10     | 3.45
310                        | 0.789    | 19         | 15   | 4      | 5.21
113                        | 0.786    | 14         | 11   | 3      | 4.86
415                        | 0.750    | 20         | 15   | 5      | 6.30
409                        | 0.739    | 23         | 17   | 6      | 4.65
109                        | 0.733    | 15         | 11   | 4      | 4.47
Neutronium research center | 0.733    | 15         | 11   | 4      | 6.27
402                        | 0.714    | 14         | 10   | 4      | 7.14
210                        | 0.712    | 52         | 37   | 15     | 3.90
202                        | 0.696    | 46         | 32   | 14     | 3.87
414                        | 0.667    | 12         | 8    | 4      | 5.25
Quantum chameleon          | 0.667    | 12         | 8    | 4      | 5.67
313                        | 0.647    | 51         | 33   | 18     | 3.80
204                        | 0.639    | 36         | 23   | 13     | 4.61
314                        | 0.629    | 62         | 39   | 23     | 3.65
Grand reservoir            | 0.625    | 8          | 5    | 3      | 6.00
205                        | 0.618    | 34         | 21   | 13     | 4.85
Archive of the eras        | 0.600    | 5          | 3    | 2      | 6.80
412                        | 0.595    | 37         | 22   | 15     | 5.84
212                        | 0.591    | 22         | 13   | 9      | 3.36
Uranium cores              | 0.583    | 12         | 7    | 5      | 5.00
107                        | 0.581    | 31         | 18   | 13     | 4.65
306                        | 0.571    | 42         | 24   | 18     | 4.10
305                        | 0.571    | 42         | 24   | 18     | 3.86
206                        | 0.571    | 28         | 16   | 12     | 4.18
201                        | 0.567    | 30         | 17   | 13     | 3.57
410                        | 0.565    | 23         | 13   | 10     | 4.17
301                        | 0.550    | 20         | 11   | 9      | 4.70
101                        | 0.550    | 20         | 11   | 9      | 5.20
115                        | 0.536    | 28         | 15   | 13     | 4.71
304                        | 0.519    | 27         | 14   | 13     | 3.33
208                        | 0.514    | 37         | 19   | 18     | 4.97
104                        | 0.509    | 53         | 27   | 26     | 4.38
114                        | 0.500    | 40         | 20   | 20     | 3.48
309                        | 0.500    | 34         | 17   | 17     | 3.74
110                        | 0.500    | 22         | 11   | 11     | 5.95
303                        | 0.500    | 20         | 10   | 10     | 3.45
407                        | 0.500    | 20         | 10   | 10     | 4.80
Particle collider          | 0.500    | 8          | 4    | 4      | 6.62
401                        | 0.500    | 8          | 4    | 4      | 6.62
406                        | 0.500    | 6          | 3    | 3      | 5.83
403                        | 0.500    | 4          | 2    | 2      | 5.75
102                        | 0.480    | 25         | 12   | 13     | 4.04
203                        | 0.478    | 23         | 11   | 12     | 4.78
105                        | 0.464    | 28         | 13   | 15     | 4.89
413                        | 0.462    | 26         | 12   | 14     | 4.54
207                        | 0.457    | 35         | 16   | 19     | 3.91
103                        | 0.455    | 33         | 15   | 18     | 4.70
106                        | 0.452    | 31         | 14   | 17     | 4.61
215                        | 0.444    | 27         | 12   | 15     | 4.81
308                        | 0.439    | 57         | 25   | 32     | 3.89
214                        | 0.435    | 23         | 10   | 13     | 4.00
Continuum stabilizer       | 0.429    | 14         | 6    | 8      | 6.64
209                        | 0.417    | 36         | 15   | 21     | 4.28
111                        | 0.400    | 35         | 14   | 21     | 3.66
302                        | 0.400    | 10         | 4    | 6      | 5.40
405                        | 0.385    | 13         | 5    | 8      | 6.15
108                        | 0.375    | 24         | 9    | 15     | 3.62
404                        | 0.368    | 19         | 7    | 12     | 6.26
Outback conditioner         | 0.364    | 11         | 4    | 7      | 5.00
408                        | 0.357    | 14         | 5    | 9      | 4.43
311                        | 0.344    | 32         | 11   | 21     | 3.47
Welfare Society            | 0.333    | 9          | 3    | 6      | 6.11
Dark matter converter      | 0.333    | 6          | 2    | 4      | 6.33
The ultimate plan          | 0.333    | 6          | 2    | 4      | 5.83
112                        | 0.316    | 19         | 6    | 13     | 3.89
211                        | 0.312    | 16         | 5    | 11     | 5.31
315                        | 0.306    | 36         | 11   | 25     | 5.36
Tectonic drill             | 0.300    | 10         | 3    | 7      | 5.20
Synthetic endorphins       | 0.300    | 10         | 3    | 7      | 5.70
Cloning vat                | 0.300    | 10         | 3    | 7      | 5.70
213                        | 0.286    | 14         | 4    | 10     | 4.43
Temporal tourism           | 0.273    | 11         | 3    | 8      | 5.55
411                        | 0.250    | 8          | 2    | 6      | 2.12
312                        | 0.241    | 29         | 7    | 22     | 3.24
Exocrawler                 | 0.222    | 9          | 2    | 7      | 5.33
Anti-gravity field         | 0.182    | 11         | 2    | 9      | 5.18
Rescue pods                | 0.125    | 8          | 1    | 7      | 6.00

Some interesting facts here:
- 307(Admin for 5 water) has a win rate of 81.1% but 308(the same exact building) has 43.9%. This goes to show how little data we truly have. I assume that with more data, the more these would become the same.
- 314(teal for water&VP) was the most built with 62 constructions. 403(core for mech) was only built 4 times. Unforunately I don't have data to see how often buildings actually appeared in the shop, but every building was built at least once. Even 411 (8 TIMES) even though I consider this to be the worst building.
- Overall, Superprojects are towards the bottom of the list, but Neutronium Research Center has an outstanding 73.3% win rate. Turns out that getting 10-12+ points is pretty good.



I would love to hear your thoughts!
Is there a stat you think is missing?
Do you have some secret about Progress that unlocks more points?
Is there a building you love that has a very poor rating? (114 is the best building)

[Zaypex]

Since one tournament a year isn't enough, be sure to check out "The Turnaround" tournament starting on 5/17 and for any future ones!
I have also started a small discord for Anachrony - is it clear that I like this game? https://discord.gg/v8WU4jCS
We are starting out small, but I'd love to get more people opinions

[teallite]

Nice stats, thanks for the analysis. I don't get why you separated identical buildings. Yes, there was some anomaly with 307, but really it's buildings 307&308 with combined winrate of 62,5%. 3xx buildings are somewhere around the middle in terms of winrate, because they don't win games by themself (but 307&308 are among the best, of course). Every player needs water production, so every player will build some. I see many of non-standard buildings at the top of the list. They weren't built often, but if conditions are right, they definitely can help to win a game. I think, that many superprojects are at the bottom, because they were built by inexperienced players without necessity.

Turn order matters in every era. Going first is about opportunity. First player has more options and can get a nice building, neutronium in the mines, etc, but sometimes there are enough options for both players. And sometimes going second is also good. Going second is about reaction and retaliation. Or maybe you need to stall and going second helps that. I see a lot of inexperienced players who over-commit to going first and exhaust themselves too much as a result. Maybe second players had more points in Era 5 in your stats, because they were already in the lead, had a lot of options and didn't care about going first.

And Path of Progress scores points like all other Paths. Path of Harmony and Path of Dominance are the default choice, because they're generalists. They are easy to handle and they work in most situations. But if initial board state favors Salvation or Progress I'll pick them without a doubt.

[Zaypex]

I will definitely be combining identical buildings next time! My thought process was I wanted an average amount of buildings built, but I agree that it's less important than getting a good analysis of win rate for identical buildings.
I agree with the SuperProjects as well. There are many times that building one is just far too many actions to get built for little payout. Regardless of experience, it's interesting to see specific SuperProjects come out ahead.

I know it isn't perfect, but looking at only stage 2 (the top 3 of each group of stage 1) has SuperProjects winning, further showing that experienced players can win with them. One thing this chart is missing is if these are different games they were built in. Could have easily been 1 person built 4 SP, won that game, then there was 1 other game where a SP was built. Interesting regardless. (Note that I didn't combine identical buildings again.)

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Building                 | Win Rate | Times Used | Wins | Losses | Avg Build Order
-------------------------|----------|------------|------|--------|------------------
403                      | 1.000    |          1 |    1 |      0 | 8.00
406                      | 1.000    |          1 |    1 |      0 | 7.00
Quantum chameleon        | 1.000    |          3 |    3 |      0 | 7.00
Dark matter converter    | 1.000    |          1 |    1 |      0 | 9.00
Grand reservoir          | 1.000    |          1 |    1 |      0 | 8.00
Outback conditioner      | 1.000    |          1 |    1 |      0 | 7.00
Archive of the eras      | 1.000    |          1 |    1 |      0 | 7.00
307                      | 0.929    |         14 |   13 |      1 | 3.79
109                      | 0.857    |          7 |    6 |      1 | 4.86
107                      | 0.857    |         14 |   12 |      2 | 4.64
310                      | 0.800    |          5 |    4 |      1 | 5.20
303                      | 0.800    |          5 |    4 |      1 | 2.60
409                      | 0.750    |          8 |    6 |      2 | 5.12
213                      | 0.750    |          4 |    3 |      1 | 4.25
313                      | 0.722    |         18 |   13 |      5 | 4.22
207                      | 0.667    |          6 |    4 |      2 | 4.83
410                      | 0.667    |          3 |    2 |      1 | 3.67
414                      | 0.667    |          6 |    4 |      2 | 4.50
205                      | 0.667    |         12 |    8 |      4 | 4.17

Turn order definitely matters. I'll see if there's a way that I can determine that via the log. (Look for capital action then payment of 2 water? wouldn't see if the action wasn't taken) That would be interesting to see average amount of times the winner takes that action.

While there are definitely some initial game states that favor Path of Progress, there are far too many that don't. Personally, the more expensive buildings when you need to build Red Buildings is pretty tough to get around. And you can't plan around future super projects being good. It's definitely a risk taking them no matter what I feel. And that can be fun to do, for either A or B side, but in a tournament against very good players, it can be very rough to get consistent points with them.

[teallite]

I know it isn't perfect, but looking at only stage 2 (the top 3 of each group of stage 1) has SuperProjects winning, further showing that experienced players can win with them.

Yeah, absolutely. Quantum Chameleon won 3 times out of 3. I'm not surprised, it's very strong and gives a lot of flexibility. You may have a solid understanding of your opponent's plans, but then they build QC and suddenly they have many more possibilities. I'm not so sure about Outback Conditioner in 2P. It combines with Haulani's ability and can help with most workers and most breakthroughs endgame conditions. But it's only 4 VPs by itself with cost of 2T&2U&2G and 1/2 breakthroughs (and 2 water for every action). Archive of the Eras is among the best point scorers. DMC is nice for Harmony's Evac A condition if you have enough gold and not enough geniuses. May also work for Salvation's Evac A.

While there are definitely some initial game states that favor Path of Progress, there are far too many that don't. Personally, the more expensive buildings when you need to build Red Buildings is pretty tough to get around.

Well, here is the kicker: Path of Progress has more expensive buildings, but they have cheapest exosuits. Captain Wolfe cried when he found out, because he wasn't the best anymore. Path of Progress can just camp in the mines taking all these valuable resources for their buildings and their suits. It's very powerful. And yes, their evac conditions aren't good for a rush. Usually they want to stall until Era 6, but it's easy to do in 2P. This way they have plenty of time to build their engine, gather resources and get three labs.

And you can't plan around future super projects being good.

Absolutely. But each superproject gives you 5 additional VPs with Evac B condition. So, any SP is better for Path of Progress and not as good for everyone else. And this is the main idea with PoP. Superprojects, Research action and scientists are not so good for other paths, but PoP gets additional points for them. It's hard to block Path of Progress, while they can block everyone else just fine.

It's definitely a risk taking them no matter what I feel. And that can be fun to do, for either A or B side, but in a tournament against very good players, it can be very rough to get consistent points with them.

Well, most tournaments (and Arena) use paradox die and this hurts Progress and Salvation the most. This already creates an inclination towards Harmony and Dominance. And yes, Harmony and Dominance are more consistent, and it's better to play with the same Path again and again. This creates a circle: we don't pick Progress, so we are not as good with Progress, thus we avoid Progress even more.

[Zaypex]

Yeah, absolutely. Quantum Chameleon won 3 times out of 3. I'm not surprised, it's very strong and gives a lot of flexibility. You may have a solid understanding of your opponent's plans, but then they build QC and suddenly they have many more possibilities. I'm not so sure about Outback Conditioner in 2P.

I think in 2P it is definitely above average, but not the best (7.5/10 imo). Definitely has a ton of flexibility, but you are already taking more actions.

Usually they want to stall until Era 6, but it's easy to do in 2P. This way they have plenty of time to build their engine, gather resources and get three labs.

At least in the tournament, 67% of the games ended in Era 6, so it's definitely the norm in 2P. And there were no games ended on Era 5 with Librarian Cornella, and only a few with Patron Valerian, but in either case, their average scores are definitely below the others in the same rounds. I definitely hope with more data, those even out more. I also really wish the evac conditions were within the log so I could separate that out.

Absolutely. But each superproject gives you 5 additional VPs with Evac B condition. So, any SP is better for Path of Progress and not as good for everyone else. And this is the main idea with PoP. Superprojects, Research action and scientists are not so good for other paths, but PoP gets additional points for them. It's hard to block Path of Progress, while they can block everyone else just fine.

Especially in 2P, I agree that it takes a lot of actions to effectively block Superprojects for Progress, but it's a lot easier to block other things like recruiting. On B side, it's definitely harder for people to block them (due to the mechs being so cheap), but A side is definitely gruesome.

we don't pick Progress, so we are not as good with Progress, thus we avoid Progress even more.

Sounds like a challenge to me Greatly appreciate your insight on this. Very interesting!