Asteroid Mining Consortium

[FrankJones]

Just to clarify about win percentages - they cannot truly be determined from looking at the stats.


My 2-player win rate is 84.7%. 111 wins in 131 games. But no one would be able to determine that from looking at my profile.

[Corvus Mortis]

I would be curious to play a 700 ELo player, friendly mode (I won't ask someone to risk Elo when I think my 500 ELo might understand my ability).

If any 700 Elo player is willing to play me and give tips during or after the game, I think that would be helpful to me. I don't doubt there may be things the top players do differently from a strategic standpoint, but It's difficult for me to see these things when I play.

I should add a stipulation that I believe preludes and colonies dramatically add to the variance and increase the likelihood that the better player loses in a single game or short series of games.

I’m happy to play you in friendly mode, with the same game settings as Arena. Preludes don’t increase variance, they reduce it, as they make it easier to control game length. The Prelude corporations increase variance and there should be an option to turn them off, as there is on Steam.

[Corvus Mortis]

Just to clarify about win percentages - they cannot truly be determined from looking at the stats.


My 2-player win rate is 84.7%. 111 wins in 131 games. But no one would be able to determine that from looking at my profile.

Why not? I can see a list of every one of your games and easily calculate it with a basic scrape. In any case, you are amplifying the point. Nobody wins 85% of the time when a game is as basic as HappyMeal makes it sound. Obviously it depends on the average skill of your opponents, which is what Elo takes into account.

[jaymc1130]

don’t increase variance, they reduce it, as they make it easier to control game length. The Prelude corporations increase variance and there should be an option to turn them off, as there is on Steam.

I’m pretty sure Frank meant Preludes expansion increases variance overall, which it does to the point that we like eliminating or limiting the corporations and then leaving the prelude cards that reduce variance by shortening games.

[HappyMeaI]

Just to clarify about win percentages - they cannot truly be determined from looking at the stats.


My 2-player win rate is 84.7%. 111 wins in 131 games. But no one would be able to determine that from looking at my profile.

Why not? I can see a list of every one of your games and easily calculate it with a basic scrape. In any case, you are amplifying the point. Nobody wins 85% of the time when a game is as basic as HappyMeal makes it sound. Obviously it depends on the average skill of your opponents, which is what Elo takes into account.

Once my 28 game stint is over I’ll happily fire up 50 HU games with you for fun. I don’t think I’m better, but a lot of what you’re saying is just wrong. The W/R on someone’s profile is not an accurate number, and just because it’s 80-85% doesn’t mean a better player will always beat you 80-85% of the time.

Yeah there is literally zero difference in elo between 600 and 800. If there is, then we’ll play 10’ and if you beat me 8 of them I will bow to you.

Also prelude does not reduce variance, it obviously increases it.

[FrankJones]

I would be curious to play a 700 ELo player, friendly mode (I won't ask someone to risk Elo when I think my 500 ELo might understand my ability).

If any 700 Elo player is willing to play me and give tips during or after the game, I think that would be helpful to me. I don't doubt there may be things the top players do differently from a strategic standpoint, but It's difficult for me to see these things when I play.

I should add a stipulation that I believe preludes and colonies dramatically add to the variance and increase the likelihood that the better player loses in a single game or short series of games.

I’m happy to play you in friendly mode, with the same game settings as Arena. Preludes don’t increase variance, they reduce it, as they make it easier to control game length. The Prelude corporations increase variance and there should be an option to turn them off, as there is on Steam.

I'll send you a game invite tomorrow - I'm wiped after a long day, but I appreciate your agreeing to play.

[FrankJones]

Just to clarify about win percentages - they cannot truly be determined from looking at the stats.


My 2-player win rate is 84.7%. 111 wins in 131 games. But no one would be able to determine that from looking at my profile.

Why not? I can see a list of every one of your games and easily calculate it with a basic scrape. In any case, you are amplifying the point. Nobody wins 85% of the time when a game is as basic as HappyMeal makes it sound. Obviously it depends on the average skill of your opponents, which is what Elo takes into account.

Oh, yes, someone could look at my game history, though I imagine it would be a bit tedious. It would require separating out my friendly mode games, my solo games (none of which were recent, so that part might not be too difficult), and possibly all my 5-player hot seat games that I used to help debug the game.

[primrose1234]

Yeah there is literally zero difference in elo between 600 and 800. If there is, then we’ll play 10’ and if you beat me 8 of them I will bow to you.

Also prelude does not reduce variance, it obviously increases it.

Most of this is nonsense.

!

[rambling_coherently]

I would be curious to play a 700 ELo player, friendly mode (I won't ask someone to risk Elo when I think my 500 ELo might understand my ability).

If you want a challenge and to see how well you do, why don't you just play a lot of Arena? It's the most (only) competitive format on BGA.

[Corvus Mortis]

Once my 28 game stint is over I’ll happily fire up 50 HU games with you for fun. I don’t think I’m better, but a lot of what you’re saying is just wrong. The W/R on someone’s profile is not an accurate number, and just because it’s 80-85% doesn’t mean a better player will always beat you 80-85% of the time.

I am calculating the 75-80% win rate based on the Elo formula. That is what is required to move up in rankings.

Yeah there is literally zero difference in elo between 600 and 800. If there is, then we’ll play 10’ and if you beat me 8 of them I will bow to you.

This is delusional. I have played folks at both levels and there is a massive difference.

Also prelude does not reduce variance, it obviously increases it.

It depends on what you mean by variance, but I mean it in the sense of increasing the likelihood that the better player wins. High variance favors the weaker player (since luck plays a larger role). Preludes allow you to achieve a suitable start even with a very weak hand, which favors a stronger player. The Prelude corps are poorly designed and overpowered (except for Robinson). So, the Preludes themselves reduce variance but the corporations increase it.

Base games you are often dead if you lack early development. Additionally, the longer game length gives engines more time to develop and overpower any effective counter play. That’s also why Solo Challenge scores tend to be higher in Base (where you get 14 gens) than with Preludes (where you get 12). Since engines often have exponential scoring, the extra generations tilt balance towards engines.