Choosing a low task that's in my hand.

[Wreckage]

Just played a game and we got to mission 40, and this situation came up.
These are the tasks after the captain moved the “2” token to B9.


This is my hand

The captain chose B4 first. I have second choice and I choose G6. Third player picks P3. Fourth player picks B2. Captain Picks B9, as expected.

Here’s what’s left for my second choice:


I chose P4, and we were successful, but I took some friendly constructive criticism for this choice. I was told I should have chosen the P8. I still think I made the better choice, but I can see the argument.

My thinking is; There is a good chance a 4 can win itself the 3rd time pink is led. I still have my rocket to get the lead if needed at that point. Choosing P8 means waiting until the 4th time pink is led to win the task with my rocket.

The argument for choosing P8 is; Even if I have no good plan to win my task, they can get it to me somehow. It turned out, the player with my task was out of yellow the third time yellow was led, so I could have played a rocket, and they could have played my task. I don’t think I would have known to play my rocket though, so that would have been a gamble. Also, I should point out, there was no reason to be playing yellow 3 times, so that’s a lucky discovery.

I have chosen my own low task in situations like this before, and it’s an ongoing discussion/argument with my crew mates. Any opinions?

[Romain672]

The normal logic is that you have 3 colors to gain your task you don't hold. You have 1 for a task you hold.
But here you got lots of control on pinks.

.

Here is the probabilities of the repartition of pinks from your pov ( https://www.zupimages.net/up/21/11/1j5g.jpg ):
006: 0,11% => negligeable, and would be an extremely weird game
015: 2,5% => p8 solo would be lost, but that seem to not be the case. It's still negligeable. If p1 is solo that's so bad.
024: 9,5% => that should be easy, you should be able to get your third pink easily if p1 is in the 4 pinks hand.
033: 7,3% => that one will be hard. One player will got only pinks above 4.
114: 11% => same. But there is a good chance the holder of 4 pinks is p9 (and 66% for them to have p1 else it's bad). After playing pink once all cards above 4 would be played or on their hand. Which mean you should pick p4 over p3 in case you comm p4 after one pink trick. It depend of order of players too. But the holder of 4 pinks could even comm p8 and play a low pink to make you do your p4 second pink trick.
123: 55% => more likely by far. p9 should be played. Then we got a good chance for p8 needed to be played after that. Except if that forth player got only one pink which is likely too (like 66%). And then it seem easy to give you back the lead in pinks. Unless the player with 3 pinks didn't got p1 (50%, so 22% overall). That's a big downside.
222: 15% => That seem fine? You must play pink twice. Then you would need to get lead back with s1, and play your pink.

I need to add that this is mission 40, so time is important. Let's count them: 2 blues, 1 green, 2 pinks. So we are at 5. Which is fine.

.

The comm is the most important part. What do you comm?
If you comm pink you don't have your comm anymore, and need blue or green. You have no way to comm that.
You could decide to clue green immediately, which ask for g6 to not be played, since you are playing last after the first pink trick, thet should prompt for that play. But you want pink played a second time, so that look bad.
If you decide to not comm after one pink trick, you would hope for p8 to be done first (unless p4 is lead). Since you are playing last on that trick, that's amazing since you can adapt. If after that you comm g8+, you would get an easier time getting p8.
If you comm b7, your tasks will be done last, which is great for p4. And it tells you got a sub. I really like that option. And p4 look better on that case.

So now, about picking p8. You would put a low pink task to the player who picked... b2. Which is amazing.
And then you need to win your pink. One problem is what do you comm? s1 is weak, green is weak, yellow shouldn't be commed.


You have 42% chance for someone to have 3+ pinks and not p1.
15% chance for the repartition being 222.
41% to be fully fine.
2% to have a weird repartition.
That look annoying.
I think because of that 42% which is so high you should pick p8.

.

You didn't say unfortunately the repartition of pinks tasks, or what happen for pinks to be hard to do.
Or what you decided to comm.

[Wreckage]

The same player with P3 task also chose P9 task, and had P9 in hand. I waited until after that play and then commed P4 as my high pink. It turned out P4 won itself third time pink was led with no problems.

Looking back at this, my best choice was to choose B2 task first, instead of G6. That means it will cost my rocket to win B2, because my B7 will be taken first play. But then I can comm G8 high to win win P8 task. 3 greens with an 8 high is better than 3 pinks with a 4 high, however, playing this way I have already spent my rocket, so I lose any possible second chance.

I of course would like to get both G6 and B2 tasks. But it's highly probable that which ever of those I choose first, the other will be taken before I choose again. So most likely I would have the same 3 cards to choose from second choice, no matter which I picked first.

[Rohcz]

With that u pick the p8. I wouldnt pick my own p3 or p4 in hand. If u pick the 3 or 4 u could make someone stuck with only a p8 in hand as u only hold a 3 or a 4 at some point. This is a 3 way split between players it can become incompat. Even if that was never the situation i wouldnt pick the 3 or 4. U have a rocket option and u can pull in the color of your task 6. U also have a solo b7 to deliver pinks or drop. Asking the whole community you might get answers from players that would steer u into the wrong direction. I would only listen to a few of the players that i know that are actually good at the game.

I did forget about the 3 going with the 9 and u still holding 24. I guess its ok in this situation. I still would always pick the 8 here myself. I usually only pick the 4 as last resort having no other ways to win. Games dont go as efficient that way. More often then not i lose games because someone picks their low task in hand. Especially late game. I know it looks good to the person holding it but it usually doesn't play out as well. Task choices are the most important part of the game.

[Wreckage]

U seem to post after we have a debate. Haha. There are 3 or less players that play this game that i have come across that i can say are as knowledgeable or better then me. I dont think u see that. Asking the whole community you'll get different answers. I would just stick with asking a few of the better players. Like for example doc txt. He's number 1 in this game.

I don't always post after one of our discussions, or I'd be posting everyday . I know a number of highly respected players whose opinions you disregard, for instance Ahthat1, Robinzig, Quarentenilo, Tuut Tuut tis Luut, and Kooolant have given the most logical answers in these past debates.

If u pick the 3 or 4 u could make someone stuck with only a p8 in hand as u only hold a 3 or a 4 at some point.

I am 3 deep in pink, so, unless I toss a pink away on another suit this can't be an issue.

Looking back at this, my best choice was to choose B2 task first, instead of G6.

Looking back at this again, I think the choices I made during the game were the best. One problem trying to win P8 with green is, I'll probably have to play the lower two greens first in order to win with G8 the third time in that color. So it's very likely I will have trouble getting green led that third time, since other players will be out. If it's possible to play G8 early, and win with g4 third time in green, then it's equally likely to win with P4 third time in pink. By choosing p4, I have the rocket to fall back on to get the lead, so it's a little safer. My rocket is less useful trying for P8, since I will never be able to trump that color.

To choose G6 first, then P8 second, means hoping the player with G6 is 3 deep in green, so that I can win P8 at the same time. Seems risky. They also have a 1/3 chance of having P8 as well, which means instant loss. If they are 2 deep in green, and I can win the third time in green with a 4, then winning with P4 is just as valid.