DivergentRalph wrote: ↑21 June 2025, 13:14also your claim that the dice are correct are unfalsifiable from a philosophic pov - nothing will count against it.
In practice, that's wrong. My calculations take a lot of things into account.
(which takes into the calculation: if the player already talked by the past in the forum, how weird the claim is (if you say '6 too much rolled' it's fine. If you said that the even days there is more 9 than 7 and odds days that the 10th roll is usually above 10, that will not be fine), your number of games since your last shared game, i divide by 11 if that can be done with any number, divide by 2 if the claim can be high and low, and the probability of the event)
That's a lot, and that's the point, many things can happen during one game, and while one game should not be enough, since I'm now used to the claim in the forum, I know what you can except from a game.
If you find after those calculations probabilities of 1/10k, then congratulations, you find an extremely weird event happening. Find me more of that, and something has a chance to not work properly.
If you find probabilities of 1/1M (even from a single game), then it's the weird game of the whole website in the last few years. Find a second, and something have an high chance to be wrong.
Find probabilities of 1/1000M, and there should be an investigation. Maybe that single game was bugged, maybe it was rare occurence, maybe someone find something to abuse. But that shouldn't be happening.
Alternatively, like I often said, you could do a claim, something which can be repeated and which can be checked by stats. Then in your
futures games, you show us game where that event happen.
Thing is, I ask you something specific, and if you like saying lots of differents things happening, then you can't do that claim, since there would be way too many claims (I tried to count them once and I find around ~1000 claims possible, if you don't do the usual stuff).
In my last post, my calculations find that the game shared here got something which should happen every 4 and 26 games.
That's so far from my 1/10k, 1/1M, or 1/1000M, and that's the point: that work well, so finding a game which should happen once every 10000 profiles is extremely hard.
And people don't like my posts and answer to them for in my opinion two reasons: 1- they are harder to follow and 2- that find high probabilities. People like saying that this event was a 1 out of 200k, but when you look further, you can find that in their last 100 games, that event should be happening one time 1 of 12. While 1/12 is still very unlikely, if you got multiples people who could be saying that, or multiple series of 100 games, then that's not unlikely anymore, that's expected. But so they will stick with their 1/200k since in their mind, it's something which shouldn't happen.
Then other people read them, and that confirm what they were thinking, and are now convinced the system is rigged.
It's simple to share wrong information.
It's extremely hard to get back to the truth, since that require a lot more arguments and explanations.
People will stick with a post of 2 sentences, and will maybe not read and not take into account longer posts, or posts which require thinking, or posts which contradict what they were already convinced for.
) to goes into their territory to play their cards.
