I understand the point, but I don't necessarily see an issue with that. Yes, maximum win percentage might be around 70% let's say. So that means that a rating difference equilibrium between a good and a bad player would be around 150 points. Similarly, the maximum rating the best player can achieve would be capped at a value much lower, than in a less luck-based game. So, if you want to compare ratings between two different games, that of course wouldn't make any sense (ok, achievements like X+ Elo get significantly easier/harder from game to game, maybe that's a little bit of an issue).FSKFSK wrote: ↑22 June 2025, 21:21 The way elo works is that both players "ante" rating points based on their rating difference, and the winner gets the pot.
Elo uses the formula 1 / (1 + 10^(rating difference/400)) as the "better player's chance of winning", where "rating difference" is lower rated player's ranking minus high rated player's ranking.
This system works very well for chess, because a player with a 400+ better rating will almost always win, due to the lack of a luck factor.
This system fails for luck-based games, because the better player will only have a 55%-75% chance of winning, no matter how much better they are, as long as their opponent knows the basic strategy for the game.
I'm just saying that the formula 1 / (1 + 10^(rating difference/400)) needs to be replaced with something else for games with a significant luck component. Ideally, the distribution can be determined dynamically by looking at game results, maybe updating it every 3-6 months.
But, on the other hand, you can treat it as an indicator. Maybe you can calculate the standard deviation of rating distribution of all players (I'm assuming that should be close to normal distribution) and with that to have an objective measurement of a luck-factor for each game, instead of an arbitrary assigned value (actually, very easy thing to do, if you have access to BGA database). A comparison like this, I feel would be an interesting and useful thing.