S21 Meta. Stats for 1000 games of the season

[slav4ella]

Part 1: Season 21 Meta Indicator
Season 21 results (based on ~1,000 games)
Outlaws: 63.98% winrate share (684 wins)
Renegade: 7.02% winrate share (75 wins)
Vice-Sheriff: 28.99% winrate share (310 wins)

This distribution is a clear meta-indicator for Fistful of Cards. Historically, the Outlaws’ winrate share was around 60–61% (from AVtactics data for the 6 players seasons), but now it’s closer to 64% — that’s a significant tilt in favor of the Outlaws.

Why? One reason is the new Roulette event — it always starts with the Sheriff, forcing him to take the first risk. It’s basically an extra squeeze on the strongest Sheriff picks — especially Bart Cassidy. Bart either has to win before the final event or risk dying in a tight 1v1. His ability can even backfire in the last event. So the expansion indirectly nerfs strong Sheriff plays and shifts the power toward aggressive Outlaw teams.



Part 2: My Personal Numbers & Thoughts
As for me, my personal winrate this season ended up at 49.3% — a bit higher than my lifetime clean average of around 46%. That’s clean, because I don’t count Abandoned Games — and you shouldn’t either.


Here’s why: abandoned games artificially inflate winrates by about 4% on average. I’ve reviewed a ton of player profiles, and roughly 10% of all games are abandoned. Most of these add extra “ghost wins” that push up your numbers for free. So if you’re checking your own profile — don’t just divide your total wins by your total games and call it good. Subtract those ~4% to get your real winrate.

Around mid-season, I was holding 52.5% ~ 500 games — so distance does flatten the curve. Maybe I’d hit another streak later, maybe not — but even so, the fact I finished this season above my baseline shows the new expansion really gives strong players more ways to push an edge.

A few other good players’ stats back this up:

Goodness Freedom: 500 games, 50.2% clean winrate

kuzestanx: ~300 games, 52% clean winrate (edit)

If the new events were pure coin flips, we wouldn’t see any consistent edge. Like I said: if you play rock-paper-scissors with a drunk guy outside your building — he’s got the same odds as a world champ. Pure luck equalizes everyone. So the fact we can still push above 50% proves the game’s added more strategy, not more raw RNG.

Fistful of Cards boosted Outlaws, gave better players more ways to win, and proved once again that strategy beats raw luck

[ChiefPointThief]

When you say 10% of all games are abandoned are you only counting bang games? Is this arena? Also is this because someone didn’t show at the start of a game or quits? Because that number seems pretty high

[slav4ella]

When you say 10% of all games are abandoned are you only counting bang games? Is this arena? Also is this because someone didn’t show at the start of a game or quits? Because that number seems pretty high

Only bang, mostly arena, its started games, which were not finished



Without abandoned


So 636 games was abandoned from total 6234

[kuzestanx]

As for me, my personal winrate this season ended up at 49.3% — a bit higher than my lifetime clean average of around 46%.

There is no reason to compare your current winrare with your overall winrate as, sure, current winrate will be higher due to growing of your skills. A better way there is to compare winrate of your last 500 games with win your winrate of previous 500 games.

Goodness Freedom: 500 games, 50.2% clean winrate

kuzestanx: ~400 games, 52.5% clean winrate

And there we have to know our winrates without aFoC to be sure in our suggestions. After all, this info better highlights the main thought of your paper. I've played 319 games this season with new expansion, my winrate is 52.03% while for my previous 319 games my winrate was 49.22%

I'm also interested to see the critics' opinions on this event deck.