Is A Fistful of Cards More Chaos or Strategy?

[slav4ella]

Back to the original question...

Look at this table, around move 60.
#698324558

And I have A LOT of examples like this. That, maybe, are funny when you are the lucky one... But to answer the question if FoC is more Chaos or Strategy, well... From my pov, is still, and definitely, more Chaos.

I'm not saying I didn't have fun this season. But I largely prefer the previous one.

Made the new post about this with my stats for 1000+ games, also need to say one thing : we constantly notice when something unusual happens in the game, reinforcing our takes about how much randomness there is. It’s exactly these moments that stick in our memory, while everything else fades away. This is a classic example of cognitive bias and the effect of selective recall. (confirmation bias)

[Strojek]

I am not a math guy, for me personally statistics are uselles, even though for most people arent.
It is just the feeling that I rebemeber having a close rene loses in highnoon.
It was just one card, one hitpoint in firstfull On the other hand I feel like my games in fistfull have been won bcs i was a sid ketchup and healing.
This season is good oportunity to find it out if the feeling that I have till now will be still relevant.

[Falzano]

"I have A LOT of examples like this"

So, not a case of confirmation bias.
It's just a fact: we already agreed that some event is totally random, as Peyote. There are other events clearly lucky driven, and other about we can discuss, but we don't need to go mucj further.
Let's consider only Peyote: is lucky driven? Yes.
An it appears almost every game... let said, 75% of the games, doesn't matter.
In that games, someone has some luck by Peyote, someone has not.
Is Peyote giving an advantage if you're lucky? Yes. My example was at an extreme but I saw similar cases more often than one could imagine (once I took like 6 or 7 cards).
This gives a great advantage to someone, every game (ok, 75% of the games).
Doesn't matter if in long period (i.e., a consistent number of games) there will be a balance: the fact is that in ever... 75% of the games, someone probably win (also) thanks to Peyote.

Then, there are the other events...

All this add a great luck component: sometimes you have benefits from that, sometimes you have disadvantages, in long period statistically should be a tie, but it doesn't matter: at the end of every single game, your feelings of being lucky/unlucky with FoC are higher than the other expansion.

This is what I mean, and that's all: one can enjoy this. I did not much, and prefer other expansions.

[slav4ella]

Well, if we’re talking purely on an emotional level, then yes — I agree that an event like peyote is usually unpleasant for us emotionally when it gives our opponents an advantage. It feels bad to sit in a game where sheer, total randomness suddenly shifts things in a way that logically shouldn’t have happened. But it cuts both ways, doesn’t it? Because our team can just as easily benefit from that same randomness in the moment — and, as you already pointed out, over the long run it all evens out. So those negative feelings will eventually balance out with equally positive ones going the other way.

In fact, we’ll have our own moments where we draw six or more cards and flip the whole game around. So you’re talking about emotions in the moment and claiming that the long run doesn’t matter — but why doesn’t it? It absolutely does. You’ll experience that same randomness helping you out too, but somehow we always forget that part. Or what, when the event swings in your favor — even if it’s pure luck — it doesn’t make you happy? For example, I got a ton of positive emotions when I drew thirteen cards as the Sheriff in a 1v2 and won the game in two turns.

[Trdelnik]

Wow, seems the Bang community loves chaos! With the new Arena setting, it is maximum chaos, you cannot calculate whether it's fistful or high noon, and which cards are yet to come. Choosing Bart as a character for Sheriff is great with high noon, but with fistful, it's auto-lost once you get to the last card.

[Falzano]

So you’re talking about emotions in the moment and claiming that the long run doesn’t matter — but why doesn’t it? It absolutely does. You’ll experience that same randomness helping you out too, but somehow we always forget that part. Or what, when the event swings in your favor — even if it’s pure luck — it doesn’t make you happy? For example, I got a ton of positive emotions when I drew thirteen cards as the Sheriff in a 1v2 and won the game in two turns.

So, finally we agree that is a FACT that with this expansion, the SINGLE game is more a matter of luck than with High Noon (and a lot more than vanilla Bang!).
Is what I was trying to point since the start.

Talking about emotions, obviously yes, when luck is in my favour, a smile appears in my face. But even in that cases, I'm not completely happy to win at Bang! this way, with luck having a so great importance.

If I wanna play games luck-based, I choose other titles.
Bang, for me, was quite equilibrate without FoC. Now, is too unbalanced for my taste. Still funny? Yeah, still. But a lot less than before.

This is why the long run doesn't matter much for me.

If you are happy to win drawing 13 cards just because luck smiled you, I'm happy for you. But why not playing Dice, instead?

[Falzano]

Wow, seems the Bang community loves chaos! With the new Arena setting, it is maximum chaos, you cannot calculate whether it's fistful or high noon, and which cards are yet to come. Choosing Bart as a character for Sheriff is great with high noon, but with fistful, it's auto-lost once you get to the last card.

I don't like this, too.

Btw, you can spot wich expansion is in use BEFORE choosing character - just close the choice window and have a look at the next event.

[slav4ella]

So you’re talking about emotions in the moment and claiming that the long run doesn’t matter — but why doesn’t it? It absolutely does. You’ll experience that same randomness helping you out too, but somehow we always forget that part. Or what, when the event swings in your favor — even if it’s pure luck — it doesn’t make you happy? For example, I got a ton of positive emotions when I drew thirteen cards as the Sheriff in a 1v2 and won the game in two turns.

So, finally we agree that is a FACT that with this expansion, the SINGLE game is more a matter of luck than with High Noon (and a lot more than vanilla Bang!).
Is what I was trying to point since the start.

Talking about emotions, obviously yes, when luck is in my favour, a smile appears in my face. But even in that cases, I'm not completely happy to win at Bang! this way, with luck having a so great importance.

If I wanna play games luck-based, I choose other titles.
Bang, for me, was quite equilibrate without FoC. Now, is too unbalanced for my taste. Still funny? Yeah, still. But a lot less than before.

This is why the long run doesn't matter much for me.

If you are happy to win drawing 13 cards just because luck smiled you, I'm happy for you. But why not playing Dice, instead?

I was talking onlyt about Peyote, not about the whole expansion. About expansion u can read my new Post about S21 Meta. The stats I’m showing — over a thousand games with this event — prove exactly this point. The FoC expansion adds more tools for smart players to widen the gap against recreational ones. I’ve shown it not just in my own results. These tools can be leveraged to squeeze extra edges. In a pure coin flip or any luck-based randomness, that gap wouldn’t grow — because luck flattens everyone equally. If anything, strong players should see their win rates drop and weaker players should close the distance when luck rules the table. But that didn’t happen. The gap stayed — and even widened — because the extra options in FoC reward skill, not just coin flips

About Peyote: mathematically, PEYOTE is just a coin flip that, on average, nets you exactly ONE card over time. Yes, there’s that tiny edge case — about 1.5% — where you guess six or more in a row and brag about it for weeks. But the reality is brutal: in about 95% of cases you’re getting zero, one, two, or at best three cards — none of which usually flip anything. That occasional lucky spike is what drags the average up to one card. Without those freak streaks, it’d be even lower. So mechanically, PEYOTE is basically similar to a single-card event from the High Noon expansion. (by average draw)

[gnocchi donkey]

Fistful was really meant for the 5,7,or 8 player(bullet) 6 player allready has a 55% chance or better for outlaws so it doesnt belong in the arena which is great at 6. in 5 or 7 player it evens up the chances for outlaws as well as 8