Odds of each roll outcome?

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walkie
Posts: 3
Joined: 22 February 2014, 15:01

Odds of each roll outcome?

Post by walkie »

Are the odds of each outcome of a meeple roll public? If so, where can I find them?

Knowing these odds would be helpful for some in-game decisions. For example, I may sometimes want to reroll an undecided meeple for the small chance of earning a coin. In fact, I'm in that exact position right now, which is what made me try to find the odds. :-)
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Jellby
Posts: 3544
Joined: 31 December 2013, 12:22

Re: Odds of each roll outcome?

Post by Jellby »

From the available statistics, I guess it's something like:

Black: 40%
White: 40%
Side: 15%
Upright: 5%
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jwanders
Posts: 16
Joined: 03 June 2024, 15:38

Re: Odds of each roll outcome?

Post by jwanders »

Was curious, so just rolled 480 Carcassonne meeples and got:

Feet: 7.7%
Arm & foot: 5.8%
Head & Arm: 16.3%
Flat: 70.2%

So, for Quetzal, that would be:

Black: 35.1%
White: 35.1%
Side: 22.1%
Upright: 7.7%

Don't feel like doing the stats to see if that supports the 40-15-5 but seems pretty close. Here's the data should anyone be interested.

Trial: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Ave Prob
Feet 1 2 3 3 4 4 2 10 5 3 3.7 7.7%
Arm 1 0 3 4 5 3 4 2 1 5 2.8 5.8%
Head 8 10 9 3 10 6 9 13 4 6 7.8 16.3%
Flat 38 36 33 38 29 35 33 23 38 34 33.7 70.2%
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