Complaint Regarding Dice Probability Distribution in Settlers of Catan

[ApisMelliferaCarcica]

Dear Support,

I would like to report a serious issue I’ve experienced with the dice mechanics in Settlers of Catan. The dice rolls do not appear to follow the expected probability distribution of two six-sided dice. For example, in some games the number 12 occurs more often than 6, while in another game 4 may appear almost every second turn. This pattern is consistent: in each game it seems that one specific number is disproportionately prioritized before the statistically more common 6 or 8. This clearly deviates from the normal distribution of dice throws, which should approximate a Gaussian pattern where values like 6, 7, and 8 occur most frequently.

Additionally, the numbers assigned to board hexes should reflect the probabilities they are supposed to represent. When, for example, 12 is rolled more often than 6, it undermines the game’s balance and strongly suggests that the dice algorithm is not using the correct probability distribution. This makes strategic placement meaningless and significantly affects fair play.

How do you expect me to pay for premium when I effectively have to gamble in each game which number will be “boosted”? While there is no real issue with such artificial boosts when playing against bots, it is unfair and frustrating in multiplayer games against real people. In that context, the dice should be correct, balanced, and truly random.

I kindly request that your team investigate this issue to ensure that dice rolls in the game are truly random and follow the proper distribution for two dice.

Sincerely.

[Suoivax]

Dear Support,

I would like to report a serious issue I’ve experienced with the dice mechanics in Settlers of Catan. The dice rolls do not appear to follow the expected probability distribution of two six-sided dice. For example, in some games the number 12 occurs more often than 6, while in another game 4 may appear almost every second turn. This pattern is consistent: in each game it seems that one specific number is disproportionately prioritized before the statistically more common 6 or 8. This clearly deviates from the normal distribution of dice throws, which should approximate a Gaussian pattern where values like 6, 7, and 8 occur most frequently.

Additionally, the numbers assigned to board hexes should reflect the probabilities they are supposed to represent. When, for example, 12 is rolled more often than 6, it undermines the game’s balance and strongly suggests that the dice algorithm is not using the correct probability distribution. This makes strategic placement meaningless and significantly affects fair play.

How do you expect me to pay for premium when I effectively have to gamble in each game which number will be “boosted”? While there is no real issue with such artificial boosts when playing against bots, it is unfair and frustrating in multiplayer games against real people. In that context, the dice should be correct, balanced, and truly random.

I kindly request that your team investigate this issue to ensure that dice rolls in the game are truly random and follow the proper distribution for two dice.

Sincerely.

Tell ya what, sit down with two six sided dice, and roll them both about 30 times, recording the results.

Then roll another set of 30.

Then another.

Keep going until you have about 20 sets of 30 rolls and let me know how many of those 20 sets had your "expected probability".


The perfect "bell curve" distribution of two six sided dice only happens as you approach a data set of infinity, which a game of Catan does not.


It's how randomness works.

[Meeplelowda]

Dear Support,

I would like to report a serious issue I’ve experienced with the dice mechanics in Settlers of Catan. The dice rolls do not appear to follow the expected probability distribution of two six-sided dice. For example, in some games the number 12 occurs more often than 6, while in another game 4 may appear almost every second turn. This pattern is consistent: in each game it seems that one specific number is disproportionately prioritized before the statistically more common 6 or 8. This clearly deviates from the normal distribution of dice throws, which should approximate a Gaussian pattern where values like 6, 7, and 8 occur most frequently.

Additionally, the numbers assigned to board hexes should reflect the probabilities they are supposed to represent. When, for example, 12 is rolled more often than 6, it undermines the game’s balance and strongly suggests that the dice algorithm is not using the correct probability distribution. This makes strategic placement meaningless and significantly affects fair play.

How do you expect me to pay for premium when I effectively have to gamble in each game which number will be “boosted”? While there is no real issue with such artificial boosts when playing against bots, it is unfair and frustrating in multiplayer games against real people. In that context, the dice should be correct, balanced, and truly random.

I kindly request that your team investigate this issue to ensure that dice rolls in the game are truly random and follow the proper distribution for two dice.

Sincerely.

There is already a open "bug report" on this issue here: https://boardgamearena.com/bug?id=64097

Please submit your "evidence" there.

[Meeplelowda]

Tell ya what, sit down with two six sided dice, and roll them both about 30 times, recording the results.

Then roll another set of 30.

Then another.

Keep going until you have about 20 sets of 30 rolls and let me know how many of those 20 sets had your "expected probability".

That would actually require doing work. It's a lot easier to just report your vibe-based anecdotes about what's going on.

[Ceaseless]

Obviously not a serious thread given no evidence is posted.

The dice rolls do not appear to follow the expected probability distribution of two six-sided dice. For example, in some games the number 12 occurs more often than 6, while in another game 4 may appear almost every second turn. This pattern is consistent: in each game it seems that one specific number is disproportionately prioritized before the statistically more common 6 or 8.

As we can see, the OP has posted the game is actually random. Numbers inconsistently appear more frequently than others in a way the OP is unable to predict.

This clearly deviates from the normal distribution of dice throws, which should approximate a Gaussian pattern where values like 6, 7, and 8 occur most frequently.

Obviously if the most common numbers appeared more frequently than the other 100% of the time, the game would be rigged. According to this post that isn't happening, so more statements from the OP confirming the site is working properly. Unexpected events don't happen 0% of the time. Since it's random, all sorts of things happen, with the more likely stuff happening more often, and the various unlikely stuff popping in too. Since it's random there's no telling what will happen with any given roll, you can only predict how things pan out in the long run.

This clearly deviates from the normal distribution of dice throws, which should approximate a Gaussian pattern where values like 6, 7, and 8 occur most frequently.

Additionally, the numbers assigned to board hexes should reflect the probabilities they are supposed to represent. When, for example, 12 is rolled more often than 6, it undermines the game’s balance and strongly suggests that the dice algorithm is not using the correct probability distribution. This makes strategic placement meaningless and significantly affects fair play.

How do you expect me to pay for premium when I effectively have to gamble in each game which number will be “boosted”? While there is no real issue with such artificial boosts when playing against bots, it is unfair and frustrating in multiplayer games against real people. In that context, the dice should be correct, balanced, and truly random.

I kindly request that your team investigate this issue to ensure that dice rolls in the game are truly random and follow the proper distribution for two dice.

Sincerely.

And then this is more generic joke material. Not much to say here, I don't think the jokes landed very well, it mostly leans on the same old gags.

[robinzig]

it is unfair and frustrating in multiplayer games against real people

Ha, you've just precisely put your finger on the main reason (although not the only one) that I dislike Catan as a game - an opinion based on many many IRL plays (I've never played it on BGA). It's just too random, with victory largely determined in each game by who is favoured by the luck of the dice.

Your message confirms that the online implementation is working just like the real game.

Of course, my dislike of this - and, it seems, yours too - is just an opinion, and I think a minority one at that. Plenty of people love Catan. But, as others have pointed out already, what you describe is *exactly* how fair dice behave, over the small number of rolls in a single game.

[Zelva]

Dear Support,

I would like to report a serious issue I’ve experienced with the dice mechanics in Settlers of Catan. The dice rolls do not appear to follow the expected probability distribution of two six-sided dice. For example, in some games the number 12 occurs more often than 6, while in another game 4 may appear almost every second turn. This pattern is consistent: in each game it seems that one specific number is disproportionately prioritized before the statistically more common 6 or 8. This clearly deviates from the normal distribution of dice throws, which should approximate a Gaussian pattern where values like 6, 7, and 8 occur most frequently.

Additionally, the numbers assigned to board hexes should reflect the probabilities they are supposed to represent. When, for example, 12 is rolled more often than 6, it undermines the game’s balance and strongly suggests that the dice algorithm is not using the correct probability distribution. This makes strategic placement meaningless and significantly affects fair play.

How do you expect me to pay for premium when I effectively have to gamble in each game which number will be “boosted”? While there is no real issue with such artificial boosts when playing against bots, it is unfair and frustrating in multiplayer games against real people. In that context, the dice should be correct, balanced, and truly random.

I kindly request that your team investigate this issue to ensure that dice rolls in the game are truly random and follow the proper distribution for two dice.

Sincerely.

There is already a open "bug report" on this issue here: https://boardgamearena.com/bug?id=64097

Please submit your "evidence" there.

That was hilarious to read

[nik592]

The probability of a given number coming up on a d6 roll is 1 in 6, but that doesn't mean that if you roll a dice 6 times, you're guaranteed to get one of each number. There's a set number of distributions for any given number of dice rolls, and each of those is equally likely to come up.

It's like if you flip a coin 5 times and get all heads, that doesn't make tails any more likely on your next flip. In a set of six coin flips, the distribution of six heads is just as likely as a distribution of 3 heads and 3 tails.

But yeah, feel free to add your evidence to the bug report over there, if it makes you feel better. Or as robinzig says, stop playing Catan, and then random distribution won't bother you. Probably. Guess it depends what you replace it with. I'm not a fan either btw, and while luck has something to do with it, I also find player trading particularly frustrating.

[Ceaseless]

The probability of a given number coming up on a d6 roll is 1 in 6, but that doesn't mean that if you roll a dice 6 times, you're guaranteed to get one of each number. There's a set number of distributions for any given number of dice rolls, and each of those is equally likely to come up.

It's like if you flip a coin 5 times and get all heads, that doesn't make tails any more likely on your next flip. In a set of six coin flips, the distribution of six heads is just as likely as a distribution of 3 heads and 3 tails.

But yeah, feel free to add your evidence to the bug report over there, if it makes you feel better. Or as robinzig says, stop playing Catan, and then random distribution won't bother you. Probably. Guess it depends what you replace it with. I'm not a fan either btw, and while luck has something to do with it, I also find player trading particularly frustrating.

3 heads in a row followed by 3 tails in a row, before anyone gets confused.

[Meeplelowda]

The probability of a given number coming up on a d6 roll is 1 in 6, but that doesn't mean that if you roll a dice 6 times, you're guaranteed to get one of each number. There's a set number of distributions for any given number of dice rolls, and each of those is equally likely to come up.

It's like if you flip a coin 5 times and get all heads, that doesn't make tails any more likely on your next flip. In a set of six coin flips, the distribution of six heads is just as likely as a distribution of 3 heads and 3 tails.

But yeah, feel free to add your evidence to the bug report over there, if it makes you feel better. Or as robinzig says, stop playing Catan, and then random distribution won't bother you. Probably. Guess it depends what you replace it with. I'm not a fan either btw, and while luck has something to do with it, I also find player trading particularly frustrating.

3 heads in a row followed by 3 tails in a row, before anyone gets confused.

Not only 3 heads in a row followed by 3 tails in a row. Any 3 of each in a specified order. The order could be 3H then 3T, or HHTTHT, or HTHTHT. Those specific sequences are all as equally likely as 6H. What confuses people is that they don't understand how any one of those can be equally likely as 6H, and yet it's also true that an equal number of H & T in any arrangement is 20 times as likely as 6H.

Ed.: even -> equal, because the example was three each and three isn't even and that may sound confusing